Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 2: Guidance (2018) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 11-22
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11 The transition from travel by horse and buggy to mass adoption and use of motor vehicles was a major socioeconomic transformation of the 20th century. This transformation helped to produce huge gains in economic productivity and quality of life but also spawned negative externalities of vehicle use such as congestion, crashes, and inequalities in access to jobs.
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12 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles market penetration (Zmud et al.
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Uncertainties Associated with CAVs 13 of the road for their safe operation. An owner of a private vehicle may not want to pay a high purchase price for a vehicle that is initially geographically constrained in its sphere of operations.
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14 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles simulations) on potential behavioral responses.
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Uncertainties Associated with CAVs 15 fatal crashes in 2018 involving ADSs reflect the uncertainties that exist in the readiness of such vehicles to operate on public roads [e.g., Tesla Autopilot in Florida and California (Levin 2017) and Uber vehicle in Arizona (Griggs and Wakabayashi 2018)
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16 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles a lane, thus effectively increasing the supply of roads. If this were to occur, it would likely be over the long term, as it would require all (or nearly all)
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Uncertainties Associated with CAVs 17 well. Moreover, the U.S.
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18 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles development patterns is complicated by many market and policy factors. A cyclical relationship exists between current development patterns and automobile use, such that each may reinforce the other.
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Uncertainties Associated with CAVs 19 Regulatory Factors Policy and regulatory frameworks will play a major role in shaping future land use development patterns and residential and work location choices. Land use policies and zoning regulations strongly affect various location choices, and the extent to which regulatory authorities and city councils will alter policies and relax or tighten zoning restrictions in response to the introduction of AVs in the marketplace remains unclear.
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Transportation Cost Uncertain impact. Transportation cost in CAVs could rise for some and decrease for others, depending on the prices for privately owned vehicles and TNC services and the relative use of those options.
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Transit Auto access to transit and multimodal tours Access to transit by auto decreases Access to transit by auto increases (use of longerdistance commuter bus and rail could increase) Access to transit by auto increases na Access to transit by auto increases Access to transit by auto increases Access to transit by auto increases Access to transit by auto increases Access to transit by auto increases Time choice Variability in choice of time of day to travel Peak spreading is reduced Peak spreading is increased Uncertain -- peak demand and reliability both increase na Uncertain -- peak demand and capacity both increase Uncertain -- peak demand and reliability both increase Peak spreading is increased na Uncertain -- peak demand increases but sensitivity to delays decreases Vehicle occupancy Carpool formation Increase in shared ride Increase in riding/ driving alone na Increase in riding/driving alone (fewer people afraid of using auto)
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22 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles intersection and freeway operations, the coordination of flow through the concept of synchronized arrivals and reserved time and space may indeed prove to reduce queuing and congestion. This type of coordinated fleet would require a significant saturation of AVs communicating and adjusting speed to optimize flow across the roadway network.
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