Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 2: Guidance (2018) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 23-29
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From page 23... ...
23 This chapter builds on the information presented in the preceding chapters and provides a conceptual framework for planning and modeling CAVs. Subsequent chapters provide high-level guidance for planning and modeling practice.
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From page 24... ...
24 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles greater number of trips, even though the rate of trip making stays the same. Data-supported modeling does not forecast behavioral changes; instead, the process forecasts growth in presently observed behavior -- as it should.
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From page 25... ...
Framework for Planning and Modeling CAVs 25 Framework: Data Data are not available to build predictive long-range travel models of CAVs, or any of the technologies and applications that will be promulgated in the future. However, deployment of preliminary versions and types of CAV technology is expected to increase within just a few years.
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From page 26... ...
26 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles Similarly, stated preference data should be caveated, particularly in the case of CAV technologies, because respondents probably do not have any experience with the technology. Models calibrated to data collected in today's transportation environment cannot simply be applied with an additional mode representing the CAV technology because the chosen mode needs to be present in the environment at the time the data are collected for the individual choice to be valid in the model.
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From page 27... ...
Framework for Planning and Modeling CAVs 27 Similarly, the transportation planning community is facing the problem of adaptability and risk associated with an uncertain future, one based on advanced technology that is not currently well defined. While the one-best-alternative method that has been established over decades in transportation planning may suffice for short-term plans, it is becoming abundantly clear that long-range plans are facing increasing risk of being invalid because of CAVs and other disruptions to the transportation space.
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From page 28... ...
28 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles scenario-planning processes. At an appropriate point in time, planners and modelers in a region should agree on whether models can be taken as predictive tools that extend trends found in observed data or should be discussed as exploratory tools that are not based on observed data.
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From page 29... ...
Framework for Planning and Modeling CAVs 29 critical to communicate with leadership about uncertainty but without under- or overstating outcomes. Personality preferences vary among planners, modelers, and leadership.
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