Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 2: Guidance (2018) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 64-73
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64 Overview Strategic models for planning have existed in various forms for a long time. Several forms of strategic models for transportation planning have been developed in recent years to address a gap in the technical understanding of an uncertain future.
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Adapting Strategic Models to Address CAVs 65 demand can influence each other (and not be double-counted)
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66 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles state control totals. The population is controlled for by household income and age of persons in the household.
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Adapting Strategic Models to Address CAVs 67 economic forecasts can be used to supplement the data, support forecasts, or provide control totals. Input–output data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are used to describe what each industry produces and consumes.
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68 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles One example is the strong relationship between smartphone ownership and other new technologies, such as AVs. The population synthesizer could be adapted to identify smartphone ownership for households, and then that information could be used as an indicator of household adoption of AV technology.
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Adapting Strategic Models to Address CAVs 69 Mobility Context Mobility models simulate household-level choices to provide mobility options for all persons in the household. These models are primarily focused on household vehicles but also identify AVs, car service subscriptions, and bicycle ownership.
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70 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles TNCs, and with new data on these types of households, mobility models can represent households signing up to use MaaS. Bikeshare is another option to consider as a mobility model, parallel to the bike ownership model.
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Adapting Strategic Models to Address CAVs 71 components estimate a household's budget for transport and then, on the basis of this budget, limit choices for owning. In addition, the full cost of driving a household vehicle can be directly incorporated into the mode choice component.
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72 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles VMT will also likely change when enough CAVs are on the road to make better use of existing capacity and, as a result, increase speeds. Intersection delay may also be significantly reduced with sufficient CV market share.
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From page 73... ...
Adapting Strategic Models to Address CAVs 73 Strategic visioning frameworks rely on elasticities to estimate impacts for a model component, and these impacts are integrated so that other parts of the modeling system are influenced. Elasticities are typically derived from observed data but can also be derived from a range of assumptions.
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