Airports and Unmanned Aircraft Systems, Volume 2: Incorporating UAS into Airport Infrastructure— Planning Guidebook (2020) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 101-106
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From page 101... ...
C-1 Step 1: Gather Current UAS Forecast Data Several industry and governmental forecasts related to military, non-model, civil and commercial UAS were published by Teal Group, U.S. DOT/VOLPE, FAA, Business Insider, as well as other industry and academic organizations.
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From page 102... ...
C-2 Airports and Unmanned Aircraft Systems Year Total UAS Activity Commercial Only UAS All Other Public Agencies including U.S. DOD US DOD Only – Unmanned and Pilot Optional 2015 11,000 1,000 10,000 9,005 2021 20,125 5,125 15,000 10,005 2026 50,000 20,000 30,000 12,211 2031 160,000 100,000 60,000 14,813 2035 250,000 175,000 75,000 19,000 AAGR 20152026 15% 31% 7% 3% AAGR 20152035 17% 29% 11% 4% Table C-1.
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From page 103... ...
UAS Forecast Process C-3 Step 4: Create Range Forecasts, Apply Forecast Methods, and Evaluate Results FAA personnel (Conference Call with FAA Forecasting Branch, 2018) within the Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, Statistics, and Forecast Branch (APO-110)
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From page 104... ...
C-4 Airports and Unmanned Aircraft Systems As noted earlier, due to the size of current UAS and operating needs, the majority of UAS do not regularly, if at all, use traditional airport infrastructure. However, the military is actively using larger UAS (i.e., Global Hawk)
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From page 105... ...
UAS Forecast Process C-5 UAS operations in the near term. However, as the size of UAS aircraft increase and resemble traditional aircraft, use of airports is also expected to increase.
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From page 106... ...
C-6 Airports and Unmanned Aircraft Systems Applying this data to total forecast UAS operations, results in an estimate of likely operations by type which may then be used along with manned forecast fleet mix data to determine the critical aircraft or group of critical aircraft requirements. It is important to note that activity forecasts become less reliable the further out they project due to expected changes in technology, consumer demand and overall aviation activity volatility.
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