Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions (2024) / Chapter Skim
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6 The Essential Role of Clean Electricity ABSTRACT Reducing and eventually eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from power generation is essential to reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. energy system.
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Other chapters address the important changes that need to occur in the built environment, transportation, and industrial sectors as they rely increasingly on electrical energy, and in public engagement and financial systems to support these transitions. INTRODUCTION Clean electricity is essential to decarbonizing the U.S.
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○ Establishing and funding a new national green bank to support a wide variety of investments (e.g., in the power sector, buildings and other eligible project targets)
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Market Conditions Although the U.S. economy overall remains highly dependent on fossil fuels (with coal, oil and natural gas providing nearly four-fifths of all primary energy consumption (Chapter 12)
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In March 2021, President Biden proposed a $2 trillion infrastructure plan, including hundreds of billions of investment for the electric grid and clean energy and climate technology (Parlapiano and Tankersley 2021)
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for relevant sections (not counting the support for electrifying transportation [in the golden rectangle] and reducing energy costs and improving efficiency [in the green rectangle]
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Subnational Government Policy Meanwhile, states and localities have also taken steps to lower power-sector emissions. Most states have some sort of mandate to add increasing amounts of renewable energy to their electricity supply, and many states have further requirements to significantly reduce or eventually eliminate electricity sources with GHG emissions in the decades ahead (Figure 6-2)
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FIGURE 6-2 States with Climate, Renewable or GHG-Reduction Mandates for the Electricity Sector as of September 2023. NOTE: Map annotated by the committee on September 12, 2022.
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FIGURE 6-3 Subnational and Private Sector Climate Commitments. SOURCE: Reproduced with permission from Hultman et al.
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FIGURE 6-4 Service Territories of Electric Utilities with Commitments Made to Reduce Power Sector Emissions. SOURCE: Smart Electric Power Alliance, generated by ORNL, ©2023 Mapbox ©OpenStreetMap.
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FIGURE 6-5 Plot of voluntary electric utility company emissions reduction pledges compared with state requirements. SOURCE: This article was published in D
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battery capacity, future fossil fuel prices, and the availability of transmission expansion potentially leading to higher or lower emissions levels by 2032 (CBO 2022)
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The REPEAT Project examined the sensitivity of different carbon-reduction outcomes in the power sector to changes in assumptions about the pace of build-out of the nation's high-voltage transmission grid. Zero-emitting resources would accelerate and expand so as to contribute from approximately 50 percent to 80 percent of power supply by 2030 and between 60 percent and 85 percent by 2035 (see Figure 6-8)
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FIGURE 6-8 Generation Shares by Resource by 2035, Under Various Transmission-Expansion Assumptions. SOURCE: Jenkins et al.
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FIGURE 6-10 2030 Emissions reductions by sector and scenario. SOURCE: Tallackson and Baldwin (2022)
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2030, power-sector emissions would drop by 70–75 percent relative to 2005, as compared to approximately a 48.5 percent reduction without the policy (Roy et al.
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and emissions outcomes for the power sector are more closely aligned across models by 2035, with key provisions from the law resulting in emissions reductions of 43 percent and 48 percent below 2005 levels by 2035 (Bistline et al.
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clear progress to date (including with the IIJA, IRA, state policy, and private-sector commitments) , additional policies will be needed to successfully address persistent barriers to decarbonizing the electricity sector during the next decade and for the years beyond 2030/2035.
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Build-Out of the Electric Transmission Grid Given the essential role that the nation's electric transmission system will need to play in enabling decarbonization of the grid in a relatively affordable and timely way, it is imperative that the nation moves forward with planning, siting, building out, and paying for expansion of the high-voltage transmission system. Particularly because many of the best locations for high-quality, utility-scale wind and solar generation are far from population centers, the current grid is insufficient to enable extensive expansion of those resources (Bloom et al.
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FIGURE 6-12 (b) Transmission grid as of 2035 (estimates to support wind and solar generation in E+ scenario with base siting availability)
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each of those agency's processes are time-consuming and their outcomes are uncertain. Many states and other stakeholders do not support expanded federal action to accelerate build-out of the interstate transmission system (Klein 2022; NARUC to FERC 2022)
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Reduction Act (IRA) , in conjunction with other aspects of Federal Power Act requirements and state statutes and regulations, so that • DOE conducts its analyses and identifies corridors where transmission expansion is in the national interest and supports states' goals for decarbonizing their electric systems; • Transmission companies and/or, as appropriate, Regional Transmission Organization plan for projects to fulfill the need(s)
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et al.
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c) Make sure that there are also options to ensure basic electricity service at affordable (and where possible, discounted)
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various types of eligible projects which could include DERs that reduce GHG emissions in low-income and disadvantaged communities (EPA 2022)
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demand; with DERs located in particular in places that meet customer needs and provide grid services; with different pathways to electric vehicle charging buildout; with different levels or patterns of electrification in industry or heavy transport; with different levels of demand for firming hydrogen generation or powering CCS -- the local distribution system will need very substantial investment and expansion. At a minimum, the local grid will require different types of local-distribution system planning and operation than in the past, so that it accommodates two-way flows of power on circuits, more DER installations, more technologies to visualize and in some cases manage and control flows on the local system, and so forth.
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including advanced nuclear, hydrogen technologies, long-duration storage -- will require additional research, development, demonstration, and deployment (Kelly and Nelson 2023)
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Overarching Actor(s) Responsible for Sector(s)
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BIL Summary ("Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act Summary: A Road to Stronger Economic Growth")
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https://cleanenergygrid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Transmission-Projects-Ready-to-Go Final.pdf. Grid Deployment Office.
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in the Inflation Reduction Act." Rhodium Group. https://rhg.com/research/climate-clean-energy inflation-reduction-act/.
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https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/plattscontent/_assets/_images/latest news/20201224-renewables.jpg.
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Rivera, A., B
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White House.
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