Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions (2024) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 361-406
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9 Transport ABSTRACT Transportation emissions represent nearly a third of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S, the majority of which will be reduced through vehicle electrification.
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INTRODUCTION Transportation is the nation's largest source of GHG emissions, accounting for 29 percent of total GHG emissions, edging ahead of electric power generation (25 percent)
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FIGURE 9-1 Share of Transportation GHG Emissions by Source (2019)
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TRANSPORTATION ELECTRIFICATION INCLUDING ZEV SALES GOALS, SUPPORTIVE POLICIES, AND BARRIERS Light-Duty PEVs and Charging Infrastructure LDV Goals and Scenarios Light-duty vehicles are increasingly being electrified owing to market demand, corporate offerings, and incentives offered for electrification and its attributes, primarily fuel efficiency and reduced emissions. In its first report, the committee recommended specific goals for decarbonizing transportation: • A national standard for a 50 percent sales share of ZEVs by 2030 and 100 percent by 2050 (NASEM 2021a)
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demand for PEVs. 6 The IRA also provides substantial tax credits to North American manufacturers of 138F vehicles and batteries through 2032, and for production of low-carbon and net-zero liquid fuels, which will stimulate supply.
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TABLE 9-2 Estimated Zero Emission LDV Sales Growth Required to Reach 50 percent of LDV Sales by 2030 Yearly ZEV Sales ZEV Sales ZEV Share of Year (‘000s) Share (%)
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Charging Infrastructure The $7.5 billion in funding authorized and appropriated for chargers in the IIJA (§11401 and Division J, Title VIII) will provide roughly 500,000 chargers (mostly on intercity highways)
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these requirements could be met, the IRA could increase the sales share of heavy-duty long-range trucks up to 17 percent by 2035 (see Slowik, Figure 7)
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Low and net-zero carbon liquid fuels are a possible route to decarbonization of vehicles, both for older legacy vehicles during the phase-out of combustion engines, as well as for harder to electrify transportation subsectors. Cost-competitive net-zero carbon fuels at scale, while feasible, do not yet exist (NASEM 2021b)
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Despite cost reductions, consumers do not show consistent behavior in purchasing vehicles based on TCO. It is not clear why this is the case, but it may be because consumers are unfamiliar with or inattentive to vehicle operating costs, that they value other vehicle attributes like acceleration or vehicle size, that they see predicted fuel savings as a "risky bet" that may not come to fruition with their vehicle purchase, or that TCO it is not communicated in a way that consumers can use, such as monthly cost of ownership comparisons (Dumortier et al.
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several large automakers have chosen to adopt Tesla's charging adapter and buy-in to its charging network, which is reported to be the most reliable network by consumers (J.D. Power 2023)
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mineral and material production is sometimes associated with child and slave labor as well as environmental destruction, notably cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Companies are under pressure to end sourcing of materials produced under such conditions, which is a major motivator to produce batteries with limited cobalt content, for example.
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for EVs found that even with maximum availability of minerals from U.S. or free trade sources on the market value basis required by law, available materials are just shy of the requirements for lithium iron phosphate and nickel cobalt aluminum chemistries and reach only one-quarter to half of the requirements for nickel manganese cobalt chemistries (Trost et al.
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continued setting of GHG standards based on growing availability of ZEVs and efforts to inform and educate consumers about EV fuel and maintenance cost savings (NASEM 2021b, p.
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o Fleet Electrification. Fleet electrification can be a useful additional strategy.
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TABLE 9-4 Automakers' Electrification Targets for LDV Since 2022 Automaker Target Region Group/Brand Ford 600,000 BEV sales by 2026 Europe Group General Motors 400,000 EV sales from 2022–2024; 1 million EV North Group production capacity in 2025 America Volkswagen Targets fully electric production by 2033 (brought Europe Brand forward by 2 years) Toyota 1,500,000 BEV sales; introduce 10 additional Global Group models by 2026; committed to a multi-pathway approach to reduce CO2, including continuing development of FCEVs and PHEVs Mazda Expects at least 25% of sales globally to be BEV in Global Group 2030 Honda Aims to launch 30 EV models globally by 2030, Global Group with production volume of more than 2 million units annually Nissan Updated global target to 44% EV sales by 2026 Global Group (with regional subtargets for Europe, Japan, China, and the United States)
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Locomotives and Rail Vehicles Because they operate on fixed routes with dedicated infrastructure, electric power can be provided to moving vehicles, rather than being stored on the vehicle as for roadway vehicles. Locomotives and rail vehicles can use catenary or third rail for electricity, but the catenary is expensive, vulnerable to failures, and unaesthetic to many.
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FIGURE 9-4 Analysis of Future Domestic and International Aviation CO2 Emissions. SOURCE: Courtesy of FAA (n.d.)
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capability. Commercial MHD truck investments are more likely to be made on a life-cycle economic basis than are consumer purchases of LDVs, but short-term incentives to accelerate commercial operator adoption of PEVs would have valuable environmental and public health benefits.
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trucks to electric power, towing aircraft to and from runways with electric vehicles, and converting other airport ground operations vehicles for baggage movement and other logistics to electric drive. GHG REDUCTION THROUGH TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY Improving the efficiency of energy used to provide transportation of goods and people generally results in lower impacts from transportation systems, including fewer GHG emissions.
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FIGURE 9-5 LDV transportation characteristics, including total VMT, vehicle registrations, average fuel economy, and miles per vehicle.
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Rail and Marine Freight Efficiency Improvements While non-truck freight movements are only a fraction of overall transport GHG emissions, there is potential for efficiency improvements in other modes including rail and marine. Freight railroads have made considerable reductions in fuel expended per ton-mile in the past decades by rebuilding their tracks, carrying heavier weights, pulling more cars, and more carefully managing speed and acceleration.
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respectively. Of course, these substitutions often only result in a partial reduction of motor vehicle trips and travel and will not always replace the quality of in-person interactions.
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duplexes, and up to quadruplexes in limited cases (California City News 2021; Shumway 2021)
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environmental benefits even though the marginal GHG reductions from these efforts may be modest. Aside from federal fuel economy standards (covered in Recommendation 9-1a)
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growth in EVs will have limited benefits for the lower-income drivers or owners of vehicles who will find it hard to purchase a new EV, nor will EV growth result in expanded mobility options for those who cannot afford to own vehicles. As discussed in the section on 2030 ZEV Sales Goals and Barriers, the IRA includes specific efforts to make PEVs and charging accessible to low-income households, but broad penetration of PEV ownership in this income group will require additional efforts.
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will make them more affordable through cost reductions and as the secondary market develops. Local programs to increase access to used vehicles and to provide counsel on vehicle and insurance decisions and avoiding predatory lending practices would be particularly helpful for first-time, low-income vehicle purchasers (Pendall et al.
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representation of discriminated-against low-income communities on the planning, zoning, and transportation agency decision-making boards that plan and provide for transportation infrastructure and services. Certain transportation-related technologies implemented for decarbonization will introduce new or heightened interest and concern from the public and require special consideration for public engagement.
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current biofuels production (16 million hectares, Chapter 8)
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transportation decision-making boards that plan for and provide transportation infrastructure and services and transparency about the proportion of such representation by reporting on the websites of such organizations. ACTIONS TO EXPAND THE INNOVATION TOOLKIT Although EVs and other transportation decarbonization technologies are commercially available, others are still in research and demonstration status.
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standardization because any recharging infrastructure funded through this program will have to be interoperable across proprietary designs. Automakers have recently been partnering to develop or adopt new standards, including several major automakers buying into the Tesla network and standard.
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FIGURE 9-6 Pathways for Production of Low-Carbon Synthetic Fuel.
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Production of low-carbon synthetic fuels is currently limited by high costs and inefficiencies (Cai et al.
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SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS ON TRANSPORT TABLE 9-5 Summary of Recommendations for Policies Designed to Meet Net-Zero Carbon Emissions Goal in Transportation and How the Policies Support Specific Sectors, Objectives, and Overarching Categories Actor(s) Overarching Responsible for Sector(s)
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Actor(s) Overarching Responsible for Sector(s)
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Alliance for Transportation Electrification.
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DOE (U.S. Department of Energy)
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EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)
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Gulley, A.L.
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Karner, A., and R.A. Marcantonio.
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Margolies, J
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in the United States." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2676(9)
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Tong, F., C Hendrickson, A
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