Pathways to Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 2020s (2023) / Chapter Skim
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7 Realizing the Opportunities: Medium- and Large-Scale Programs
7 Realizing the Opportunities: Medium- and Large-Scale Programs
Pages 186-226
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From page 186... ...
These science themes reflect that we have entered a new phase of astronomical exploration in multiple dimensions, combining detailed characterization of known classes of objects with opening up the vast discovery space of the unknown. In addition to the broad science themes, the survey committee identified three priority science areas that define the scientific frontiers and motivate the recommended new investments in large projects: Unveiling the Hidden Drivers of Galaxy Growth; New Windows on the Dynamic Universe; and Pathways to Habitable Worlds.
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From page 187... ...
In the middle part of the decade, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (formerly Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope [WFIRST]
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From page 188... ...
time-domain astrophysics James Webb Space Telescope 6.5-m IR telescope First galaxies, star and planet formation, cosmic feedback Roman Space Telescope 2.4-m wide field of view O/IR Cosmology, exoplanet microlensing, GO telescope program U.S. contribution to Euclid (ESA-led M-class 1.2-m aperture telescope, optical Dark matter, dark energy, expansion history of mission)
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From page 189... ...
The most optimistic scenario provided by NASA, adopted as the guidance for this survey, has the budget growing after FY 2025 at approximately 2 percent per year to $2.5 billion in FY 2040 and beyond. For inflating project budget profiles, the analysis uses an inflation rate of 2.7 percent per year, as derived from NASA's new start inflation index for FY 2020.4 NASA's guidance for the most optimistic budget growth (shown by the solid blue line in Figure 7.10, later in this chapter)
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From page 190... ...
Primary among these is that large strategic missions and MREFC-scale observatories must each advance a broad set of Astro2020's priority science questions. The survey committee was also guided by the judgment that the estimated time from inception to science for any recommended project is an important consideration, and it must be based on a schedule analysis and assume optimal, but realistically achievable, budget profiles.
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From page 191... ...
The Next Generation Very Large Array (ngVLA) Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program • Design, cost trade studies, and prototyping to prepare • Program to co-mature large strategic missions and for construction, which could begin by the end of the technologies.
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From page 192... ...
7.5.1 Advancing NASA's Large Strategic Missions -- The Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program The richness of the Astro2020 science calls for a broad range of observational capabilities spanning the electromagnetic spectrum. The power of broad wavelength coverage was demonstrated by NASA's Great Observatories, a panchromatic suite of four missions, launched over the course of three decades, that operated with contemporaneous overlap (Figure 7.1, Table 7.3)
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From page 193... ...
Development time scale indicates time from survey recommendation to launch. SOURCE: Data from NASA Great Observatories Science Analysis Group, 2020, Great Observatories the Past and Future of Panchromatic Astrophysics, Cosmic Origins, Physics of the COSMOS, and Exoplanet Exploration Program Analysis Groups, https://arxiv.
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From page 194... ...
onclusion: Establishing a panchromatic suite of observatories over the next 30 years is essential to C address key questions in all three of the survey's priority science themes. The large strategic mission implementations presented to the survey cannot all be built and launched in an optimal time frame given the current designs, available budgets, and approaches to mission development. The universally long development times for the missions in Table 7.4 indicate that general purpose observatories with the full capabilities envisioned by the community will each take 15–20 years to be developed and launched.
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From page 195... ...
This was done to some extent with the Great Observatories, in that both Spitzer and Chandra were significantly rescoped relative to the original concepts presented to the decadal surveys, yet both provided transformative observational advances.9 A rephasing of the mission and technology maturation process, with more significant and coordinated investment prior to a decadal survey recommendation to proceed with mission development, would provide multiple important benefits. This rephasing would recognize the multi-decadal time scales associated with large strategic missions and their associated technology maturation, and would better avoid the negative consequences associated with commencing missions prior to this maturation.10 By investing more in the maturation process, NASA could develop missions to a level where there is significantly more confidence in the costs and requisite cost profiles before seeking congressional approval for the final implementation.
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From page 196... ...
onclusion: Enabling subsequent decadal surveys to recommend mission implementations with suffi C cient knowledge of the feasibility, overall budgetary needs, and time scale requires significant investment toward maturing large strategic mission science, technologies, and architecture in an integrated way. ecommendation: The NASA Astrophysics Division should establish a Great Observatories Mission and R Technology Maturation Program, the purpose of which is to co-develop the science, mission architecture, and technologies for NASA large strategic missions identified as high priority by decadal surveys.
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From page 197... ...
program size forecasts CONTROLS • Decadal priorities and decision rules • Flagship Program Office • SMD Oversight & Senior Program Review FIGURE 7.3 Flow diagram showing the key functions and scope of the Great Observatories (GO) Mission and Technology Maturation Program.
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From page 198... ...
These costs are carried within the Great Observatory Mission and Technology Maturation Program for approximately 6 years, at which point any residual technology development and the associated costs are transferred to the IR/O/UV mission development line. If this schedule and funding level can be achieved, by late decade it will be possible to assess the mission design, scientific reach, technology readiness at both the component and system level, feasibility of manufacturing processes, and cost for consistency with the survey's recommendation and NASA's budget guidance prior to transitioning to formulation and implementation.
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From page 199... ...
The technological feasibility of blocking starlight to see planets ten billion times fainter than their host stars has been demonstrated in laboratory test beds, and although not at the level required by the IR/O/UV observatory envisioned here, several key capabilities will be tested by the Roman Space Telescope. We are on the threshold of a transformational leap in capability that will enable not just discovery but also exploration of planets beyond our solar system.
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From page 200... ...
Prime examples include ultraviolet and visible spectroscopy of the circumgalactic halos and the intergalactic medium and of mass flows within and out of galaxies to reveal the workings of cosmic ecosystems in detail and depth for the first time; high-resolution observations of supermassive black holes and their host galaxies locally and over cosmic time; and the construction of stellar fossil histories of the galaxies in the neighborhood of the Milky Way. The nature and effects of dark matter can be addressed by measuring the joint three-dimensional kinematic and dark matter density profiles of dwarf galaxies. These examples all constitute major components on the New Windows on the Dynamic Universe and the Unveiling the Hidden Drivers of Galaxy Growth priority science areas, and they represent only the tip of the iceberg of the impact such a telescope would have.
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From page 201... ...
The best path forward is to have NASA immediately commence aggressive technology development aimed at achieving the goal described above as part of the Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program. This program would consider and optimize configurations targeted at performance consistent with the target 6 m off-axis aperture as indicated in Figure 7.6.
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From page 202... ...
If mission and technology maturation are successful, as determined by an independent review, implementation should start in the latter part of the decade, with a target launch in the first half of the 2040s. This is an ambitious strategic mission, and while not at the cost scale of LUVOIR, it will still require an investment comparable to HST or JWST.
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From page 203... ...
; and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (referred to as WFIRST in Astro2010)
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From page 204... ...
7.5.3.2 Astrophysics Probe Mission Program Advancing the survey's science program depends on the existence of a panchromatic suite of capabilities. Given the long development time scales for large strategic missions, establishing a probe-class line with mission costs of ~$1.5 billion and launches every decade will address the need for broad wavelength coverage and scientific balance.
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From page 205... ...
, measuring the formation and buildup of galaxies, heavy elements, and interstellar dust from the first galaxies to today, and probing the co-evolution of galaxies and their supermassive black holes across cosmic time. These goals are all central to the broader scientific themes of the survey.
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From page 206... ...
For large strategic missions, the highest priority is for NASA to rapidly establish the Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program, with the most important element in that category being to commence maturation of the large IR/O/UV mission. The largest budgetary increase associated with the recommended program arises in the latter half of the decade, assuming that the large IR/O/UV mission is technically ready and sufficiently mature to commence detailed design and implementation (see Figure 7.10, below)
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From page 207... ...
Last, if these studies are successful, and if budgets allow, the survey recommends commencing construction of the ngVLA toward the end of the decade. While the IceCube Gen-2 neutrino observatory is not funded out of AST, an assessment is provided of its relevance to the science recommended by this survey.
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From page 208... ...
The large collecting areas of the telescopes also makes them powerful spectroscopic machines, especially for high-resolution spectroscopy where measurements are often limited by detector noise. This powerful combination of capabilities can be brought to bear on nearly all of the important science questions laid out by this decadal survey, across all three of our key science themes.14 They will be able to detect, image, and characterize temperate rocky planets around low-mass stars; measure their atmospheric compositions, including searches for oxygen; image protoplanetary disks; and through precision radial velocity measurements, measure the masses of the planets -- vital information possible only with the ELTs.
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From page 209... ...
, and high-resolution first-generation spectrometers capable of carrying out groundbreaking observations of exoplanets, ancient stars, and the circumgalactic and intergalactic media, key elements of two priority science areas: Pathways to Habitable Worlds and Unveiling the Hidden Drivers of Galaxy Growth. These capabilities are regarded less as competitive advantages than as powerful synergies between complementary facilities that will hasten the advancement of the science frontier objectives highlighted in this survey.
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From page 210... ...
If NSF investment can fund partnership in only one telescope, but both are viable, NSF's investment should factor in complementarity to the ESO ELT, the ability to address the science questions of the Astro2020 survey, and the relative advantages of a larger diameter (D) , which increases the sensitivity ~D2 to D4 (depending on the science application)
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From page 211... ...
This will be done in parallel with a 7-year deep/wide survey of roughly half the sky with additional telescopes sited in the Atacama Desert in Chile. A TRACE analysis estimated the cost for design, development and construction to be $660 million (FY 2020)
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From page 212... ...
The project would have broad, flexible capabilities and provide science-ready data products accessible to a diverse community of users. Such a facility would advance multiple high-priority science questions from each of the six science panels,15 and open discovery space.
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From page 213... ...
should proceed with a program to support science design, development, cost studies, and antenna prototyping for the Next Generation Very Large Array. After completion of the studies, NSF should convene a review to assess the project's readiness and available budget and proceed with construction if possible.
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From page 214... ...
The survey received a large number of white papers on Activities, Projects, and State of the Profession Considerations for mid-scale projects, concentrated at the higher end of the cost range (~$100 million) that were evaluated by the OIR, Panel on Particle Astrophysics and Gravitation, and RMS program panels.
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From page 215... ...
The guiding principle is that mid-scale investments serve to enhance the capacity of the portfolio of research capabilities to which the community has access. Given the strong endorsement of many projects by the program panels, the analysis performed by the Panel on an Enabling Foundation for Research, the expected endorsement of ground-based solar physics projects by the solar and space physics decadal survey, and the survey's recommendation to add strategic calls to NSF's mid-scale programs, current mid-scale funding levels are inadequate.
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From page 216... ...
New messengers and new physics are a central theme of Astro2020, and firm associations of high-energy neutrino events with astrophysical objects promises to provide unique information on particle acceleration in some of the most extreme environments near black holes. NSF recognizes that central motivations for future investments in gravitational wave detection and high-energy neutrino detection lie in astronomy and astrophysics.
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From page 217... ...
The rate of binary neutron star detections will be sufficient to make precise measurements of the Hubble constant through the detection of electromagnetic counterparts. For merging black holes, the signals will be loud enough for precision tests of general relativity, and for nearby neutron star coalescences, tight constraints can be placed on the equation of state of dense material.
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From page 218... ...
However, the survey strongly endorses the central role played by ground-based gravitational wave observatories to many of the survey's high-priority science questions, and urges NSF to invest in a healthy program to develop technologies for future LIGO upgrades and next-generation facilities. In the frontier observatory category, the survey concludes that NSF Physics Division's IceCube-Gen2 neutrino observatory will have impact on several of the priority science questions and has a central role in the New Messengers and New Physics theme, but again it is not directly ranked.
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From page 219... ...
the actual sensitivity to true Earth analogs in the habitable zone is relatively low. Finding: The Roman Space Telescope remains both powerful and necessary for achieving the scientific goals set by New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (Astro2010)
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From page 220... ...
, including the Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time, Euclid, and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. As a result of the discovery of gravitational wave sources in 2015, and the burgeoning of time-domain astronomy this decade, Astro2020 identified New Windows on the Dynamic Universe as one of its priority science areas for the coming decades.
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From page 221... ...
was the third highest ranked large strategic mission in Astro2010, after WFIRST (now the Roman Space Telescope) and a major augmentation to the Explorers Program.
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From page 222... ...
Deviations from the optimal budget profiles that reduce funding in years of peak spending will extend development periods and increase the total mission cost relative to this analysis. This survey emphasizes the need for investment in maturation programs (e.g., the Great Observatories Mission and Technology Maturation Program for NASA, and ngVLA design and prototyping efforts for NSF)
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From page 223... ...
The MREFC budget profile also includes current commitments and a growing wedge for the agency-wide MSRI mid-scale programs as provided to the committee by NSF. Mid-scale projects NSF Major Research Equipment and Facilities Construction Prior NSF‐Wide Commitments Mid‐Scale Guidance CMB‐S4 USELTs ngVLA NSF Guidance $800 $700 $600 Millions $ NSF Guidance $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $‐ 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 FIGURE 7.8 Recommended program for the NSF MREFC.
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From page 224... ...
O&M for New MREFC Projects Small and Medium AST Research Infrastructure Small and Medium Research Infrastructure Additions Research, Education & Portfolio Review Research & State of the Profession Additions $800 $700 $600 $500 Millions $ $400 $300 $200 $100 $‐ 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 FIGURE 7.9 NSF AST budget requirements for implementing the programs recommended by this decadal survey. The required funding is based on existing budget items as well as the recommended additions.
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From page 225... ...
All large strategic mission activities start within the maturation program. When a large strategic mission achieves sufficient maturity, and has a scope consistent with decadal recommendations, mission-specific funding begins.
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From page 226... ...
7.9 ANALYSIS OF CONSISTENCY WITH BUDGETARY GUIDANCE The survey committee performed an analysis to assess whether the proposed program of new activities presented in the roadmap is consistent with envisioned budget profiles provided by the agencies. All three agencies urged the survey committee to present an ambitious vision that would motivate increased federal investment in their astronomy and astrophysics portfolios, and we use the optimistic scenarios given to us for planning.
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