Counting People in the Information Age (1994) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 15-29
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From page 15... ...
a coverage assessment process that estimates the size of the population not covered through the initial and follow-up processes. The design of a census data collection process in essence amounts to deciding which methods of identification, enumeration, response, and coverage improvement should be applied at each of the steps; whether sampling methods (and the corresponding estimation methods)
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evaluate proposed research on alternative census designs; (3) evaluate the results of the research and the selection of census designs for further consideration, in particular for the series of census tests that begin in 1995; and (4)
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The concept of total information error over a decennial period is a useful criterion against which to evaluate alternative methods for collecting small-area data that have traditionally been collected for a sample of respondents during the decennial census using a longer questionnaire. Proposals for a large, continuous survey of households and for other methods to improve intercensal estimates (e.g., expanded use of administrative records)
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Subsequently, the Census Bureau decided to remove its original set of 14 alternative census designs from further consideration. Instead, the 1995 census test will evaluate promising components of the original alternative designs.
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Collection of reliable information in the 1995 census test about the costs and effectiveness of census design components will be essential for their proper evaluation particularly to inform decisions about allocating resources between efforts to improve primary response and efforts to use sampling and estimation methods to correct the counting operation. Evaluation Criteria for the 2000 Census The Census Bureau developed a set of mandatory and desirable criteria for assessing design alternatives, and it has specified that any design being considered for the 2000 census must satisfy all mandatory criteria.
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The costeffectiveness of other design components, such as the use of special enumeration methods, has yet to be determined. The 1995 census test should produce better information about costs and benefits for such components.
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This commitment is reflected in the decision not to adopt a dual-strategy approach for the 1995 census test. The one-number approach thus represents a departure from the methodology of the 1990 census, in which two sets of population totals were produced, with and without corrections based on coverage measurement, and an ex post facto decision was made about whether to accept the corrected totals.
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The fundamental change is that an appropriate methodology for integrated coverage measurement is established before the census is earned out, with the recognition that results at intermediate stages (e.g., before incorporating results from the coverage measurement program) cannot be regarded on scientific grounds as viable alternatives to the final, best set of official population totals.
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From page 23... ...
The Census Bureau is engaged in ongoing research on household roster questions and analysis of results from the Living Situation Survey and related cognitive research on residence rules. To the extent possible, findings from these studies will be incorporated into the development of questionnaires and procedures for the 1995 census test, including the reinterview for integrated coverage measurement.
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The census forms used in the 1995 census test will have a format designed for ease of response rather than ease of processing. The Census Bureau will test a full mail implementation strategy, including a prenotice letter, an initial questionnaire, a reminder card, and a replacement questionnaire for those who have not replied by a predetermined date.
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From page 25... ...
Because of the operational complexities involved in developing multiple CATI instruments and coordinating this effort with integrated coverage measurement, the Census Bureau has decided not to introduce delayed sample-form follow-up into the 1995 census test design, although the concept will be examined further to determine its merit for future testing. The operational constraints on the 1995 census test underscore the importance of learning as much as possible from other research.
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We expect that the 1995 census test will provide more current and reliable information on which to base cost-benefit judgments. New cost information will be particularly useful in assessing the value of tool-kit enumeration methods, non
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The 1995 census test should be structured to provide specific information to answer a limited and well-defined set of questions about alternative census methods To the extent feasible, controlled experiments should be carried out, although the panel recognizes that operational pressures will limit the experimental complexity of the 1995 census test. In particular, the test should include evaluation components that provide a basis for assessing cost-effectiveness.
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A test of census content is scheduled for fall 1996, and the Census Bureau will submit its proposed content for the 2000 census to Congress in spring 1997. A third activity with implications for both census methodology and content is the Census Bureau's program to develop a prototype continuous measurement survey (see Chapter 6~.
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Chapter 5 includes a discussion of the long-term research that is needed to develop new, potentially cost-effective uses of administrative records for statistical purposes in the decennial census and other demographic programs. We note in Chapter 6 that the Census Bureau has established a continuous measurement development staff to pursue the research agenda for creating a system of continuous data collection.
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