Counting People in the Information Age (1994) / Chapter Skim
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6 Alternatives for Long-Form Data Collection
6 Alternatives for Long-Form Data Collection
Pages 178-202
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From page 178... ...
The long form thus requires considerably more information from a given household than does the short form. Some advocates of census reform have questioned the collection of this additional information as part of the decennial census.
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From page 179... ...
Two contradictory pressures in census reform-one to obtain better information more frequently and the other to reduce the respondent burden of the decennial long form have lent support to two proposed alternatives for long-form data collection: continuous measurement and matrix sampling. In the sections that follow, we address these two proposals under which the long-form data burden might be reduced or eliminated from the census enumeration while the means to collect comparable sample data for small areas and subpopulations is
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From page 180... ...
. A distinguishing feature of the plan currently being developed and evaluated by the Census Bureau is that it calls for continuous measurement to be conducted in connection with a complete enumeration of the population at one point every decade, whereas most earlier proposals would replace the traditional census completely with a continuous measurement program.
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From page 181... ...
The Census Bureau has developed a schedule for implementing a research program on the feasibility of conducting a continuous measurement operation. This plan is shown in Table 6.1, which is extracted from Alexander (1994~.
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From page 182... ...
Complete rural · Collect small-area data to replace spread. 2000 long form Note: MAF = Master Address File; RDD = random-digit dialing; PSU = primary sampling unit.
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From page 183... ...
The Census Bureau plans to use the data from the survey to produce 6- or 9month cumulations, in the form of data tapes for prospective users, in mid-1995. These data tapes would have the same format as that proposed for the mature continuous measurement program in order to provide users with a sense of what estimates and data products would be available.
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From page 184... ...
sample of households within census blocks would begin in 1999. Current Initiatives The Census Bureau has now established a project team to carry out the research on the practical issues in developing a system of estimates obtained from a continuous measurement program.
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From page 185... ...
Recommendation 6.1: The panel endorses further research and evalua tion of a continuous measurement program. In conducting this work, the Census Bureau should establish, and continually reinforce, a commitment to simultaneous research and development of cost estimation, data collection and processing methods, estimation procedures, and user needs.
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From page 186... ...
Because the exact nature and benefit of the poststratification procedures are unclear at present, the Census Bureau is evaluating the reliability of the ILF estimates under the conservative assumption that there would be no benefit from such a procedure. User Support for Continuous Measurement Data Products Although a change to continuous measurement requires considerable methodological and operational changes, the major question is how well it meets the requirements of small-area data users.
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From page 187... ...
The Census Bureau should also develop a program to inform data users of the simulated data products emerging from the test surveys and to get their reactions. Total Error and Frequency of Data Products Will data users regard more frequent cumulative estimates as superior or inferior to single-point-in-time data once per decade?
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From page 188... ...
As part of its outreach program, the Census Bureau should provide long-form data users with accompanying estimates of bias and precision for various geographic levels and aggregations of one to five years of data. Costs of Long-Form Data Collection Cost estimates of operating a continuous measurement program and the potential savings from eliminating long-form questions are not yet well defined.
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From page 189... ...
Another important question that must be answered in assessing the feasibility of a continuous measurement program as an alternative to the census long form is the extent to which response rates will be affected by the fact that the program would be conducted in an environment vastly different from that of the census. Response rates are important factors in determining both the costs and data quality of survey and census operations.
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From page 190... ...
The consequent reduction in respondent burden is likely to yield a modest increase in mail response rates, thus reducing follow-up costs. The Census Bureau's response improvement research has yielded differential mail return rates of 1 1-12 percentage points between redesigned versions of the 1990 short and long forms (Dillman et al., 19941.
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From page 191... ...
One could even speculate that dropping the long form from the census might lead to increased underenumeration of some subpopulations. Currently, the Census Bureau can enlist the support of many ethnic and minority groups because the census provides a great deal of useful information about the numbers and characteristics of these groups.
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From page 192... ...
Regardless of whether the long form is eliminated or reduced in size, however, continuous measurement could have several positive consequences for the decennial census. Operation of a continuous measurement program would improve the ability of the Census Bureau to maintain a continuous presence in local areas over the decade, which would enable those concerned with response and coverage improvement to conduct more effective outreach programs and improve public response to the census.
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From page 193... ...
Demands for changes in content would be most likely to take the form of requests for new questions or additional detail on existing topics, and the response to such demands could most easily be handled through the conduct of supplementary surveys. Other Potential Benefits of a Continuous Measurement Program In addition to providing data more frequently, a continuous measurement program could potentially offer other direct benefits to the Census Bureau and the federal statistical system.
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From page 194... ...
In using the continuous measurement program to collect supplementary data or as a screening device (see below) , care would be needed to ensure that the presence of these extra components did not negatively affect the response rates, or change the respondents' answers to the core questions, thus affecting movement over time estimates for these core components.
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From page 195... ...
Summary The panel believes that the ongoing thorough review of census requirements, costs, and methods presents an opportunity to undertake a full evaluation of the viability and desirability of instituting a permanent continuous data collection program to obtain traditional census data on population and housing characteristics. We believe that the efforts by the Census Bureau to develop a prototype for continuous measurement provide a very promising start to this process.
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From page 196... ...
MATRIX SAMPLING The more modest of the two proposed alternatives to long-form data collection is to change the nature of the decennial collection of small-area sample data by using a technique known as matrix sampling to reduce the respondent burden on individual households. In this section, we discuss the general approach and the Census Bureau's plans for research on matrix sampling.
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From page 197... ...
Later, we discuss the kinds of circumstances in which these benefits would be realized. The Census Bureau is considering the use of matrix sampling for the collection of sample data (long-form data)
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From page 198... ...
Then matrix sampling will increase mail response overall provided that the average mail return rate for the matrix forms (rm ~ satisfies the inequality 0.8< rm + (rm-0.7~/~3-1~; that is, the matrix form response rate must exceed 76.7 percent (rm > 0.767) , so that it is almost equal to the short form return rate of 80 percent.
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From page 199... ...
Finally, although there may be possible gains in efficiency that can be obtained through estimation procedures that utilize the intercorrelations among the variables, this is not immediately evident and has not yet appeared in the Census Bureau's plans for evaluating matrix sampling. The one property favorable to the use of matrix sampling in its broadest sense that might apply in the 2000 census is that of having different sample rates for different items.
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From page 200... ...
This is discussed in the next section. The panel does not think it is likely that the first of the above matrix sampling plans proposed for the 1995 census test will demonstrate substantial improvement in response rates.
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From page 201... ...
Thus, in investigating mail response rates and matrix sampling, we urge the Census Bureau to research fully the exact requirements for the income data at the small geographic level. It would seem likely that mail response rates might be improved somewhat by ensuring that income is not asked any more often than is necessary.
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From page 202... ...
Finding sufficient developmental lead time to evaluate fully plans for matrix sampling may be difficult as a result of the dependence on content. Recommendation 6.5: The panel endorses the Census Bureau's plan to investigate the impact of form length and content on mail response rates in the 1995 census test.
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