Population Dynamics of Senegal (1995) / Chapter Skim
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6 Conclusions
6 Conclusions
Pages 196-202
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From page 196... ...
What are the prospects for future change? FERTILITY Two recent reviews of fertility transition in Asia and Latin America underscore the point that no unique characteristic or combination of characteristics represents necessary and sufficient conditions for substantial fertility decline in a population over the course of economic development (Casterline, 1994; Guzman, 19949.
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From page 197... ...
Little of the fertility decline in Senegal appears to be attributable to either a decrease in ideal family size or an increase in the use of modern contraception, although the proportion of women using modern contraception has increased over the very recent past. Current preferences for number of children still lie very close to the physiological maximum level, given a continued regime of delayed marriage and long birth intervals.
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From page 198... ...
The decline in child mortality in Senegal, at least in rural areas, appears to be most closely linked to the improved health infrastructure, particularly the primary health care policy introduced in 1978 and the implementation of the World Health Organization Expanded Programme on Immunization starting in 1981. The experience of one rural area, Mlomp in southern Senegal, provides support for this conclusion.
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From page 199... ...
The Senegalese pattern matches more closely, though not exactly, the pattern found in certain northern African countries during the first phase of their fertility declines. For example, most of the initial decline in fertility observed in countries such as Algeria, Egypt, and Tunisia can be attributed to later age at first marriage (Fargues, 1989; National Research Council, 1982~.
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From page 200... ...
Thus it is only in the most recent period that desired family size in Senegal has fallen below actual fertility, and that use of modern contraception has increased above trivial levels. Changes in desired family size in Senegal have been particularly rapid for women with primary education (falling from about 7.5 children in 1978 to about 4.9 children in 1992-1993)
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From page 201... ...
Programs are graded on a series of program components, and a final score is given as a percentage of the maximum possible score. Scores of over 65 generally indicate a strong family planning program, scores of 50 and above indicate moderate family planning program effort, and scores under 50 indicate weak programs.
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