Population Dynamics of Senegal (1995) / Chapter Skim
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4 Fertility
4 Fertility
Pages 45-112
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From page 45... ...
The reason for Africa's rapid rate of population growth is well known: while mortality and fertility rates fell substantially in Latin America and Asia between 1965 and 1985, only mortality fell in sub-Saharan Africa; fertility remained relatively stable, well above the level required to replace the population. The existing demographic regime in sub-Saharan Africa is unlikely to remain in effect for very long.
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From page 46... ...
Consequently, fertility estimates were not included in official reports on the 1988 census, and to this day, fertility estimates from the 1988 census remain unpublished. In this report we have remedied the situation by adopting a simple correction procedure to estimate total and age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs)
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From page 47... ...
Figure 4-2 shows the national age patterns of fertility, as the proportion of total fertility contributed by each age group. The Brass P/F ratio technique whereby current fertility rates are cumulated and compared with reported lifetime fertility provides a check of the internal consistency of each survey and a sensitive test for changing fertility.
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From page 48... ...
48 POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SENEGAL TABLE 4-1 Levels and Trends in the Total Fertility Rate, 1960-1992 Year Source Subgroup TFR National Level 1960- 1961 - DS n.a.
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From page 49... ...
FERTILITY TABLE 4-1 continued 49 Year Source Subgroup TFR Small-Scale Studies [8- 16] 1963-1965 Cantrelle et al.
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From page 50... ...
As a result of using similar methodology, the estimates should be more comparable than those from the other surveys. Birth histories are usually effective at coverage of births, but fertility estimates may be distorted by errors in reports of timing.
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From page 51... ...
4- ,...... 1960 S7 \ X ~ ~1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 970 1 980 Year 1 990 DS, 1960-61 + NDS, 1970-71 3~- WFS, 1978 ~ DHS-I, 1986 -x- Census, 1988 + DHS-II, 1992-93 FIGURE 4-1 Total fertility rates for women aged 15-34 from national-level surveys, 1960-1993.
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From page 52... ...
, allows one to compare the cumulated ASFRs based on reported births in the year preceding the 1988 census with the change in the number of children ever born between the two DHS surveys. The denominator, commonly known as the period parity distribution, is obtained by cumulating the parity increm.
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From page 53... ...
Before age 30, the fertility rates from the two DHS surveys and the 1988 census are consistent. The fertility estimates in Table 4-1 permit different interpretations of fertility trends over the last 40 years in Senegal.
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From page 54... ...
The ratios from these two surveys taken together would be consistent with rising fertility affecting cohorts of women born between 1920 and 1950. However, P/F ratios from the 1978 survey show no pattern with age, showing no evidence of differences between lifetime fertility and fertility in the 5 years before the survey for cohorts born between 1930 and 1960.
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From page 55... ...
There is one minor trend visible, however: the percentage of total fertility contributed by the age group 15-19 does appear to be falling over time, from nearly 15 percent in 1960-1961 to 13 percent in 1978, to 11 percent by 1992-1993. The question of whether or not there has been a recent fertility decline also requires further elucidation.
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From page 56... ...
The proportion of women moving from a fifth to a seventh birth shows a more consistent decline across cohorts, from 73 percent among women born between 1937 and 1941 to 63 percent among women born between 1952 and 1956. Examined by themselves, the B60s from the DHS-II show clearer evidence of a fertility decline across all parities, in keeping with the pattern documented recently for other parts of sub-Saharan Africa (Working Group on Kenya, 1993~.
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From page 57... ...
. Regional Variations In 1978, the WFS reported fertility rates for four grand regions of the country:9 west, comprising the two regions of Dakar and Thies; center, comprising Diourbel, Fatick, Kaolack, and Louga; south, comprising Ziguinchor and Kolda; and northeast, comprising Saint-Louis and Tambacounda.
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From page 58... ...
58 ,/ ,/ .' .' o c q y _ C ~D ~ U ; o C} C ~ C .Y q Cl r ~t O O N O 1 1 ~\L I I 03 ~ ~ O O O-O O O O ~ lm O ID O U' O ~ O ID tt)
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From page 59... ...
. 7-~ / 1 1 1 1 1 1 20-24 25-29 30-34 Age Group so 35-39 40-44 45-49 Lowest +Center South Northeast FIGURE 4-5 Age-specific fertility rates, 1987-1988, by grand region.
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From page 60... ...
slightly higher fertility in the south than in the north of the country are also visible in the bottom half of the figure, which shows variations in fertility for the rural population in each department. The geography of fertility rates before age 20 as reported by the census is comparable with that derived from the WFS, DHS-I, and DHS-II using the four grand regions defined above (see Table 4-3~.
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From page 61... ...
~.~ ~ ~ ~. : ~ 550 - 649 650 - 749 750 - 849 850+ FIGURE 4-6 Map of Senegal showing variations in the fertility rates (per thousand)
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From page 62... ...
Estimates from the Niakhar project indicate that fertility rates were extremely high over the period 1984-1990 (Projet Niakhar, 1992~. The TFR was estimated to be 7.8 children per woman, approximately 2 children per woman more than the rate recorded in 1963-1965 by Cantrelle (1969~.
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From page 63... ...
~ , , , .,~ \ .N .` \ a` ) l 'it 25-29 30-34 Age Group 63 35-39 40-44 45-49 -x- Sine-Saloum 1 963-65 - E~ Ngayokheme 1 963-70 ~ Niakhar 1 984-90 FIGURE 4-7 Changes in age-specific fertility rates, Niakhar study area, over time.
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From page 64... ...
Figure 4-10 reproduces the fertility schedules for the most recent periods for Niakhar, Bandafassi, and Mlomp. These data have been plotted with census data from the rural areas of the departments in which the surveillance systems are located.
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From page 65... ...
Despite their limitations, local comparisons tend to support the hypothesis that births were underreported in the 1988 census. While fertility rates from the census for the youngest age groups, notably ages 15-19, correspond fairly well to those based on the Niakhar and Bandafassi data, the differences are greater among the older age groups, i.e., above age 20 in the census data for the department of Kedougou (compared with the Bandafassi data)
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From page 67... ...
Much of the diversity among regions occurs among women under 30, suggesting that the variations may be more closely related to the timing of entry into union than to the level of fertility within unions. Evidence for a fertility decline is strongest in Dakar and the western region of the country.
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From page 68... ...
There is virtually no indication that fertility has declined for women over the age of 30, except in Dakar. A decline in fertility among women over 30 would be significant because it would mark the beginning of a fertility decline within unions, which, when combined with the decline in fertility attributable to a delay in entry into union, can lead to a rapid change in the TFR.
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From page 69... ...
- ~ /~/ /~/ fx' z/ ~ ID q ~ 0 r~ ID N ~0 ~{q r ~_ _ 1 ID ,/ // ~X '/ o o C 0.
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From page 70... ...
SOURCES: Ferry (1976) and WFS standard data tape.
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From page 71... ...
1988 +DHS-II 1992-93 .'~-'':. ,,.~ '\W 1 1 FIGURE 4-13 Age-specific fertility rates by ethnic group.
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From page 72... ...
are provided in Table 4-4. Until recently, there was little evidence of any parity-specific fertility control among married women in Senegal, so it is not surprising to find a low correlation between the TFRs and the various measures of socioeconomic development displayed in Table 4-4.
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From page 74... ...
74 Cal V)
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From page 75... ...
In summary, fertility rates and socioeconomic indicators tend to be
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From page 76... ...
Until recently, there was a general reluctance to accept any signs of recent fertility decline in Senegal, but it now appears that such a decline has in fact occurred. This decline started first in the capital and extended progressively, although slowly, to other regions of the country.
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From page 77... ...
However, as noted above, fertility rates have fallen over the last 15 years, particularly among the young. Why have these changes taken place?
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From page 78... ...
Ca ~ Ip ~ TF, TFR = total fertility rate, Cm = index of marriage, Cc = index of contraception, Ci = index of postpartum infecundability, Ca = index of induced abortion, Ip = index of sterility, and TF = potential fertility.2i The effect of each of the proximate determinants is quantified by an index that varies between 0 and 1. The model has been constructed in such a way that when an index is close to 1, the proximate determinant will have a negligible inhibiting effect on total fertility, whereas when the index is close to 0, the proximate determinant will have a large inhibiting effect.
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From page 79... ...
Thus, the decline in the TFR, which fell from 7.2 in 1978 to 6.1 in 1993, was the result mainly of a change in marriage patterns. As we shall see below, the major change was a trend towards later age at first marriage for women.
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From page 80... ...
Many of the national demographic surveys in the country have been restricted to women, reflecting a long tradition of research on nuptiality, primarily as a determinant of a woman's fertility. The bottom half of Figure 4-17 provides information on
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From page 81... ...
57 30 1992-1993 DHS-II ma. 69 36 WFS and DHS Regions 1978 WFS West 64 26 Center 30 10 Northeast 28 4 South 29 6 1986 DHS-I West 77 40 Center 44 8 Northeast 38 12 South 50 20 1992-1993 DHS-II West 85 52 Center 62 25 Northeast 54 21 South 58 28 Administrative Regions 1988 Census Dakar 83 52 Thies 66 33 Saint-Louis 52 25 Tambacounda 27 9 Louga 43 18 Diourbel 48 18 Fatick 52 22 Kaolack 41 19 Ziguinchor 78 45 Kolda 30 10 Small-Scale Studies 1963 Cantrelle Sine 40 9 (1969)
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From page 82... ...
82 TABLE 4-6 continued POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SENEGAL % Never Married Year Source Subgroup 15- 19 20-24 Small-Scale Studies 1992 Pison and Bandafassi Desgrees du Lou (forthcoming) Peul 35 4 Malinke 74 7 Bedik 88 21 Place of Residence 1978 WFS Dakar 73 31 Other urban 62 24 Rural 29 5 1986 DHS-I Dakar 81 44 Other urban 79 38 Rural 37 8 1988 Census Dakar 85 57 Other urban 79 44 Rural 40 16 1992-1993 DHS-II Dakar 91 58 Other urban 82 56 Rural 53 19 Ethnic Groups 1978 WFS Wolof 48 18 Poular 29 8 Serer 45 11 Mandingo 24 14 Diola 77 21 Other 40 11 1986 DHS-I Wolof 64 26 Poular 43 11 Serer 60 22 Mandingo 53 21 Diola 89 49 Other 54 27 1992- 1993 DHS-II Wolof 73 40 Poular 55 25 Serer 74 31 Mandingo 66 41 Diola 91 62 Other 72 27 Level of Education 1978 WFS None 29 8 Primary 63 24
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From page 83... ...
Figure 4-18 shows that there is considerable heterogeneity in marriage patterns among the four grand regions: women marry much later in the west than in the three other regions. These differences reflect important differences in education attainment and urban/rural residence, as explained below, as well as differences in the accepted age at first marriage among the various ethnic groups.
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From page 84... ...
84 lo ._ ,,, o ~ N N _ C, O N ~( O N 0° cOo - ° et 2 o 1 o , .
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From page 85... ...
For those who were not, the principal reason for the dissolution of their marriage was divorce or separation: 20 percent of the married women had been divorced or separated. The remaining 9 percent of married women had been widowed.
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From page 86... ...
ad o ._ o ~ ~.E : E o ~ z .
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From page 87... ...
87 , ~ o, 0 0 C a, E o = > Z E o o or , .
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From page 88... ...
Proportion of Women Ever Married In the case of Senegal, the ultimate proportion of women ever married has not varied significantly over time: the proportion of never-married women aged 45-49 was less than 1 percent in all three surveys and was estimated to be 1.8 percent based on the 1988 census. Thus, the index Cm has not been affected by a change in the proportion of women ever married.
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From page 89... ...
There are two reasons for this. First, the young age at first marriage implies that a large proportion of unmarried women are young and still infecund.
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From page 90... ...
marriage and age at first birth is confirmed using local data sets. For example, marriage occurs very late in Mlomp, especially by rural standards, and many young women have their first and sometimes even their second child while still unmarried (Enel et al., 1994; Lagarde et al., forthcoming)
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From page 91... ...
When discussing the influence of polygyny on fertility, it is important to distinguish between micro- and macrolevel effects (Pison, 19861. At the micro- or individual level, women in polygynous unions are usually thought to have lower fertility than those in monogamous unions for a number of reasons.
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From page 92... ...
Rev 7~ ~Rev 7 ~7~ Rev 7~ ~ No 7~ Rev 7~ . 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percent · Urban OK Rural 70 80 90 1 00 FIGURE 4-22 Urban/rural variation in percentage of women aged 15-19 never married and age-specific fertility rates.
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From page 93... ...
For example, 51 percent of currently married women who have not had any formal education are in polygynous unions, compared with only 29 percent of those with secondary education or higher. Similarly, 51 percent of currently married women in rural areas are in polygynous unions, compared with only 40 percent in urban areas.
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From page 94... ...
94 oo ~_ o ED Cal o .~ Cal :~o ;^ o .~ au ·_4 so Cal a' sit o ~4 Ct so m q of US To CN US Cal on Cal C~ O .
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From page 95... ...
At the same time, the slight rise in premarital births indicates that these changes in marriage patterns do not necessarily reflect an increase in the age at first sexual encounter. Breastfeeding and the Length of Birth Intervals In a population where contraception is scarcely used, the average length of time between births is determined primarily by the duration of postpar
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From page 96... ...
Consequently, traditional practices have been established to ensure that birth intervals remain relatively long. Table 4-9 provides various estimates of the median length of birth intervals and the median duration of breastfeeding, postamenorrhea, and abstinence both for the whole country and for various subgroups and specific areas.
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From page 97... ...
However, the duration of postpartum amenorrhea decreased by approximately 2 months between the two DHS surveys, even though the length of breastfeeding appears to have risen. Again, this is consistent with a decline in the intensity of breastfeeding-which is partly a determinant of the duration of infecundity accompanying the earlier introduction of solid food.29 In summary, birth intervals have remained relatively long, primarily as a result of extended breastfeeding.
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From page 98... ...
98 so Cal Cal o s Cal so o .
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From page 100... ...
. The most popular modern method of contraception is the pill; almost half of the currently married women who were current users of modern methods in 1992-1993 reported using the pill.
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From page 101... ...
Differences in women's responses to such questions have been observed between the DHS-I in 1986 and the DHS-II in 1992-1993, suggesting that the potential demand for family planning may be increasing. For example, the percentage of currently married women who want to have another child decreased from 79 percent in the DHS-I to 70 percent in the DHS-II (Table 4-11~.
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From page 102... ...
unpublished tables partly the function of a change in the wording of the questionnaire, it appears to have occurred across almost all parities and all age groups (see Tables 4- 11 and 4- 12~. Another indicator suggesting that the demand for family planning may increase in the future is the decline, since 1978, in the number of children women reported as "ideal." The ideal number of children for all women fell from 8.5 in 1978 to 6.8 in 1986, and then to 5.9 in 1992-1993.
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From page 103... ...
103 o ¢ o ._ so o C)
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From page 104... ...
Limited data on abortions are available from several sources. Information on abortion from the WFS is limited because the relevant questions did not distinguish between spontaneous and induced abortions, but it appears that between 10-12 percent of women reported having had an abortion (Diouf, 1994~.
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From page 105... ...
The frequency of abortion varied by age of women, marital status, ethnic group, level of instruction, and number of children ever born. Abortion in Pikine appeared to be particularly frequent among 15-19 year olds and among unmarried women (Diouf, 1994~.
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From page 106... ...
Little of the fertility decline appears to be attributable to either a decrease in ideal family size or an increase in the use of modern contraception. Nationally, use of modern contraception has enjoyed only modest success.
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From page 107... ...
For example, most of the first decreases in fertility observed in countries such as Algeria, Egypt, and Tunisia can be attributed to later age at first marriage (Fargues, 1989; National Research Council, 1982~. It is interesting to note that in these countries, the initial phase of fertility decline was followed immediately by a second phase linked to a substantial decline in the demand for children and a corresponding increase in modern contraceptive use among married women.
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From page 108... ...
who, having attained an nth birth, go on to an (n + lath birth within 60 months. Thus B60s are a form of censored parity progression ratios (CPPRs)
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From page 109... ...
who provides estimates of fertility rates by ethnic group from as early as 1957.
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From page 110... ...
21. TFR = total fertility rate; Cm = index of marital fertility calculated using the formula Cm = TFR/TMFR, where TMFR is the total marital fertility rate.
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From page 111... ...
Couples in apparently identical situations may describe their condition in quite different ways, and in some instances, even the partners in the same union may not agree on their marital status (Locoh, 1988, cited in Working Group on the Social Dynamics of Adolescent Fertility, 1993~. Van de Walle (1993)
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From page 112... ...
31. An important element in these other countries' fertility decline is that as women's educational status has improved, the gain due to more widespread contraception and the loss due to shorter breastfeeding the most important determinant of amenorrhea-have practically canceled each other out (Fargues, 19891.
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