Coal Energy for the Future (1995) / Chapter Skim
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Pages 1-18
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While continued growth in the use of renewable energy forms is expected, along with a potential resurgence in nuclear power, there will be a powerful economic driving force for major and expanded use of coal over the next several decades, with concomitant pressures to reduce environmental impacts through improved technologies. In addition, in countries of South Asia and the Pacific Rim, notably China, rapid economic growth coupled with substantial indigenous coal supplies will likely contribute significantly to an expected worldwide growth in coal utilization over the next 15 years or more (DOE, 1993a)
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The CCT program was initiated in 1986 and is scheduled to run through 2004, with the specific objective of demonstrating advanced coal technologies at a large enough scale for the marketplace to judge their commercial potential. All CCT projects involve cost sharing between DOE and industry, with the industrial partners contributing at least 50 percent of the cost of the technology demonstration, as well as playing a major role in project definition and in ensuring eventual commercialization.
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These systems will employ advanced turbines developed in the natural gas R&D program. The advanced power systems program experienced a funding reduction from $187.1 million in FY 1992 to $97.1 million in FY 1994, but this decline is largely the result of completion of the magnetohydrodynamics proofof-concept program and transfer of the fuel cells activity from the coal program to the natural gas program in FY 1994.
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The market for synthetic gaseous and liquid fuels from coal is currently small due to the widespread availability and low cost of petroleum and natural gas. This situation is expected to persist for the next 15 years, with increases in oil and gas prices unlikely to be large enough to stimulate major investment in processes for the manufacture of synthetic natural gas or liquid fuels from coal (EIA, 1994~.
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In addition, increasing international oil prices will result in a growth of interest in the production of synthetic transportation fuels from coal, and increases in natural gas prices will stimulate interest in coal gasification. Coproduct systems that manufacture two or more saleable products might provide attractive market-entry opportunities for liquid fuels from coal.
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The committee recommends that within the DOE coal program there be an increasing emphasis on the production of clean fuels and other carbonbased products over time. A further consequence of the committee's recommendation that the strategic planning scenario be extended beyond 2010 is the need to reassess the role and priorities of DOE's advanced research programs.
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The committee concluded that DOE's power plant emissions goals are insufficiently challenging given the capabilities of current commercial technology and anticipated environmental demands on future coal use. Despite reservations regarding program goals for the cost of electricity and the environmental emissions, the committee noted the important role of DOE's advanced power systems program in stimulating the development of new technologies to meet anticipated electricity demand early in the next century.
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Group 2 and Group 3 power generation systems depend on the successful development of several critical components, including high-temperature gas turbines, high-temperature heat exchangers, advanced high-temperature furnaces, fuel cells, hot gas cleanup technology, and high-efficiency gasification. The riskiest components appear to be the high-temperature ceramic heat exchanger required for the externally fired combined-cycle system and the hot gas cleanup systems required for advanced PFBC and needed for maximum-efficiency IGCC and IGFC systems.
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The proposed FY 1995 budget supporting advanced combined-cycle systems in the FE R&D program is $173 million, split between the natural gas program ($113 million for fuel cells and advanced turbines) and the coal program ($60 million for IGCC, PFBC, and indirectly fired cycle [IFC]
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Commercialization Efforts The increased complexity of advanced power generation systems implies not only that commercialization of new technology will be expensive but also that prudent stepwise scale-up from pilot plant through demonstration to commercial systems is necessary to minimize the technical risk at each stage. Thus, demonstration plants such as those being constructed and operated under the CCT program are an important step in establishing a commercially available technology.
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In light of the outstanding promise of IGCC systems, as well as the production needs for clean gaseous and liquid fuels, the committee considers gasification to be an important area for R&D. The requirements for gasification systems optimized specifically for power generation can differ from gasification systems suitable for production of marketable industrial gas, synthetic natural gas (SNG)
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for the DOE liquefaction program has been proposed for FY 1995. Given the historically unpredictable behavior of international oil markets and the current very limited industrial R&D on coal liquids, the committee believes that an important role for the DOE coal program is to maintain and develop U.S.
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Given the constraints on funding for DOE's coal program, and the high cost of developing and demonstrating advanced systems, the committee noted a need for quantitative assessment of the relative merits of different systems and subsequent choice of options to be pursued. Systems analysis has the potential to assist in such assessments, notably in selection of the most promising designs, optimization of complex process configurations, assessment of performance and cost advantages, process risks and tradeoffs, and targeting of R&D to reduce critical uncertainties.
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In contrast to power generation, the committee concluded that DOE activities in coal liquefaction fall short of EPACT requirements. Given the likely growth in demand for coal-based liquid fuels in the mid- to long-term periods and the decline in industrial liquefaction R&D, the committee considered that the priority accorded DOE liquefaction activities within EPACT is well founded and should be reflected in a revised DOE coal program.
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Clean Coal Technologies, Working Draft. December 21.
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PART I Strategic Planning for Coal
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