Coal Energy for the Future (1995) / Chapter Skim
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3 TRENDS AND ISSUES FOR FUTURE COAL USE
3 TRENDS AND ISSUES FOR FUTURE COAL USE
Pages 38-63
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From page 38... ...
Recent changes in the electric utility industry are considered, especially regarding the commercialization of new coalbased power generation technologies and opportunities for joint production of electricity and other products. Following a brief overview of projected U.S.
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From page 39... ...
coal industry. Although more coal is still produced in states east of the Mississippi River, coal production in the west has increased dramatically; in 1988 Wyoming surpassed Kentucky as the largest producing state.
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From page 40... ...
Markets for Coal Utilization Technology The most important international markets for coal utilization technologies are for electricity generation. Two major market components have been identified, namely, the construction of new generating capacity and the retrofit and rehabilitation of existing plants (DOE, 1993a)
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From page 41... ...
In Turkey, for example, which is seeing a massive population shift from rural to urban areas, in major cities there is a shift from indigenous coal to imported natural gas as a home heating fuel, and scrubbers for sulfur dioxide removal are being retrofitted on power plants that use high-sulfur, usually low-rank, local coal. In China coal gasification is being used to ameliorate some critical instances of pollution (Coal and Synfuels Technology, 1993~.
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From page 42... ...
The principal areas of concern appear to be the power generation industry's ability to develop and adopt promising new technology and the availability of electricity produced jointly with other products, as in cogeneration of power and steam. Introduction of New Technology The electric utility industry's former regulatory structure provided a highly favorable environment for introducing new technology: the return of prudently incurred costs was allowed, reducing commercialization risks.
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From page 43... ...
They might also generate electricity, but for a variety of reasons, including regulation, they could not sell excess electricity to the local electric utility. The recent changes in the electric utility industry sketched above have created the opportunity to realize economies where electricity, or the fuels to generate electricity, are the by-product of some other industrial process.
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From page 44... ...
The decrease in electricity demand growth relative to growth in the gross domestic product through 2010 is expected to result primarily from energy efficiency improvements associated with demand-side management and compliance with the directives of EPACT. The industrial sector is the fastestgrowing demand sector in the EIA projections.
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From page 45... ...
Various Projections of Total U.S. Generating Capacity, 2000 and Year EIAa WEFA GRI DRI NERC EEI NERA 2000 784 747 788 792 719 813 789 2010 857 878 861 879 NA 925 NA NOTES: EIA data correspond to reference case and include cogeneration capacity.
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From page 46... ...
This forecast trend is consistent with the low number of scheduled power plant retirements reported to the North American Reliability Council for the period through 2003. Although a large number of the fossil-fuel-fired steam plants operating today are nearing the end of their nominal life (40 to 45 years)
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From page 47... ...
Natural Gas In recent years natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new capacity 2 The fraction of the DRB that is recoverable has recently been estimated for the Central Appalachian coal mining region, which encompasses the states of Kentucky and West Virginia. The study revealed that only 50 percent of the reserve base was potentially recoverable because of various mining, environmental, social, economic, and regulatory factors (Carter and Gardner, 19933.
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From page 48... ...
While domestic gas resources are adequate to support this trend in the near term, the depletion of domestic gas resources will likely result in their reduced availability and higher prices within the time period considered in this study. Estimates of the remaining technically recoverable domestic natural gas resource provide some perspective on the future use of natural gas for power generation.
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From page 49... ...
For greenfield natural gas-fired combined-cycle units versus coal gasification combined-cycle units, this crossover price is in the range of $4.00 to $5.00/million Btu.4 The crossover gas price 3 One quad (= 1015 Btu) = 0.97 Tci:, assuming an average Btu content for natural gas of 1,028.4 per cubic foot.
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From page 50... ...
More importantly, there are huge, low-cost reserves of natural gas in the Pacific Basin and Middle East that, when liquefied, can be transported across oceans. Thus, the cost at which LNG can be imported operates as a limit on the domestic price of natural gas and on the price that would be paid for gas produced from domestic coal.
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From page 51... ...
In view of these considerations, LNG will not figure as an economic source of energy for power generation until natural gas prices rise to approximately $5/ 106 Btu. In the United States, coal gasification and other options should be economic at lower prices.
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From page 52... ...
Policy actions that increase the cost of fossil fuel use would make nuclear power more competitive. Renewable Energy Most electricity from renewable resources in the United States comes from hydroelectric power, which in 1993 accounted for about 10 percent of installed generating capacity and 9 percent of electricity generation.
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From page 53... ...
Resource Base for Petroleum and Bitumen7 Liquid hydrocarbon resources can be classified on the basis of viscosity as conventional petroleum, heavy oil, and tar (or bitumen) .8 Because of its low viscosity, petroleum tends to accumulate in large pools with natural gas and is relatively cheap to produce, with high resource recovery.
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From page 54... ...
Both heavy oil and bitumens require more costly production and refining than conventional petroleum and are not competitive with petroleum at current prices. To compete with coal for power generation, heavy oils and bitumen would require pollution control similar to that required for coal, because of their high sulfur and metals content.
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From page 55... ...
However, in the past half-century the organic chemical industry has derived substances principally from petroleum and natural gas, although coal tar is still a useful source of certain specialty chemicals, such as aromatic hydrocarbons with multiple fused aromatic rings, and coal tar pitch has some niche applications that cannot be satisfied by petroleum-derived pitch. When imported petroleum increases in cost, coal could once again become a source of chemical products, though any large TABLE 3-9 Projections for Domestic Coal Consumption by End Use, 1990 2010 (million short tonsil End Use 1990 1992 2000 2005 2010 Residential and commercial 7 6 6 6 5 Industrial 76 74 87 94 101 Coke plants 39 32 28 24 21 Electricity generation 774 780 837 862 950 aData for 1990 and 1992 are actual rather than projected values.
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From page 56... ...
, and photochemical ozone were promulgated under the 1970 Clean Air Act to protect human health and welfare throughout the country. The primary drivers of technology innovation to control air quality over the past two decades have been pollutant-specific emission standards for new and existing air pollution sources, together with the ambient air quality standards, both promulgated by federal and state governments.
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~0 Red. Prep 1971 1979 NSPS NSPS NSPS FIGURE 3-2 Trend in emission rates of criteria air pollutants from a new pulverized coal power plant.
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From page 58... ...
Over the next 10 years, new requirements for NOX reductions at existing and new coal-based power plants are likely to achieve national ambient air quality standards for tropospheric ozone. Also possible are new standards for fine particulates.
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Estimates indicate that the greenhouse effect of the methane released from underground coal mining represents up to 8 or 9 percent of the greenhouse effect of the CO2 released in burning the mined coal.l3 For a 40 percent thermal efficiency power plant, the additional greenhouse effect of methane released from coal mining is equivalent to decreasing the plant's efficiency by up to about 2 percent. Control of coal mine methane emissions, therefore, has less potential for reducing greenhouse gases than achieving higher plant efficiency through the use of advanced technology.
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From page 60... ...
The principal environmental concerns are thermal discharges to waterways (discharges prohibited for new plants) and various chemical emissions, including heavy metals, organics, suspended solids, and other aqueous constituents found in power plant waste streams.
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From page 61... ...
In addition, increased competition is reducing the willingness of the utility industry to develop and deploy advanced power generation technologies that are perceived as having higher risk. In the near term, natural gas-fired systems will likely be the primary source of new capacity additions, driven by demands for peak and intermediate power, low gas prices, and low capital costs relative to coal.
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From page 62... ...
When time-averaged imported oil prices exceed $25 to $30/bbl, use of heavy oil and tar from North and South America becomes competitive with conventional petroleum. If production of gaseous and liquid fuels from coal can compete in this price range, a major market for coal beyond power generation could develop.
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From page 63... ...
1992. Managing Hazardous Air Pollutants: Implications of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments for Coal Combustion.
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