Seismological Research Requirements for a Comprehensive Test-Ban Monitoring System (1995) / Chapter Skim
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5 ISMS AND U.S. NATIONAL VERIFICATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INFRASTRUCTURE
5 ISMS AND U.S. NATIONAL VERIFICATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INFRASTRUCTURE
Pages 53-68
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From page 53... ...
This section presumes that the data quality and data access issues discussed in the preceding chapters will be adequately addressed; it focuses on the research and development infrastructure and knowledge transfer that wait provide technical support for the ISMS and U.S. CTBT monitoring operations.
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From page 54... ...
nuclear monitoring systems. More effective coordination of the overall research program and more efficient transfer of technological advances into the operational regime will result from implementation of these recommendations.
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From page 55... ...
We are on the threshold of another quantum jump in the required monitoring capabilities, as negotiations progress toward eventual signing and entry into force of a Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. Many technical challenges confront the new CTBT monitoring effort, and continued seismological research is essential to ensure adequate U.S.
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From page 56... ...
Over the past several decades' the Department of Defense (DOD) has held the primary role in supporting basic seismic research and development for nuclear monitoring.
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From page 57... ...
ARPA has been involved in developing seismic arrays for use in nuclear monitoring, but starting in FY95, responsibility for deploying and operating new arrays was transferred to AFTAC. Currently, ARPA's seismological effort is focused on development of a prototype ISMS International Data Center, with a total ARPA CTBT verification research and operations budget of $13.8 million for FY94 (DOD, ~ 9944.
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From page 58... ...
fund basic research and instrument deployments in seismology that have substantial potential relevance to the nuclear monitoring arena, but these agencies do not have explicit missions regarding nuclear monitoring operations Development of earth models, basic research on earthquake source physics, and studies of regional tectonics are a few of their areas that intersect the nuclear monitoring arena. There are plans to incorporate many ofthe NSF/USGS seismic stations in the ISMS, as well.
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From page 59... ...
Appendix B tabulates some of the seismological research efforts that are being developed and conducted in the DOE research program. In brief, the major change from past monitoring efforts is that CTBT monitoring will require global identification of events down to low seismic magnitudes, whereas previous Threshold Test-Ban Treaty monitoring emphasized yield estimation for large explosions at Soviet and Chinese test sites.
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From page 60... ...
The various agencies that are contributing to CTBT monitoring efforts all recognize the technical demands that these efforts will place on seismological capabilities. While seismological methods are quite advanced in general, development of the necessary global understanding of regional seismic wave propagation, the fundamental nature of regional wave discriminants, and regional earthquake and quarry blast source characteristics requires resolution of fundamental research issues.
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From page 61... ...
In the short-term it would be valuable to augment this program to enable additional exploration of the basic physics underlying the regional seismic wave discriminants that are being proposed for the operational environment. Long-term stability of this program should be established in recognition of the heightened challenges of CTBT monitoring and the difficulties of anticipating what research directions will advance operational capabilities.
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From page 62... ...
recommends that theAir Force exploratory development research 66.29 program in seismology, currently administered by the AFPL, should be provided with a stable base for externalfunding to enable effective development and transfer of promising research and lechnologiesirom theAir Force basic research program to fAeAir Force operational environment. AFPL should continue to administer file external DOE program, as participation in this join' effort pro vices a natural mechanism for the various elements to coordinate their research effort The CTBT monitoring emphasis on regional waves in diverse areas of the world requires extensive application of basic seismological techniques to characterize wave propagation and source characteristics in many regions.
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From page 63... ...
The pane! recommends that the clevelopment of the prototype ·SMSInternational Data Center, currently being performed by ARPA, should be sustained, the exploration of new computer technologies and intelligent computer systems by ARPA an`DOE be coordinated, and the results incorporated in the US monitoring system, to the extent appropriate One of the major challenges in the DOD research structure is to ensure that it actually functions, with relevant projects funded under the 6.
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From page 64... ...
A knowledgeahie, responsible advisory mechanism should oversee the combined DOD/DOE research effort to ensure relevance and continued coordination of the programs. Given a stable funding structure and a closely coordinated basic, applied, and advanced development research program, it is still of major importance to that researchers be well informed of the concerns of the monitoring environment.
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From page 65... ...
The results of these efforts should be exploited in nuclear monitoring activities. The panel recommends that improved communication between the DOD operational environment and researchers in the basic and applied programs be fostered.
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From page 66... ...
These include event catalog determination, with attendant technical issues such as improved association algorithms, multiple-phase location procedures, and event location in heterogeneous models. interagency working groups bridging the earthquake and nuclear test monitoring agencies should help to coordinate and foster research with dual applications.
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From page 67... ...
To ensure that relevant research is conducted and brought to operational capabilities, enhanced lines of feedback from the operational system and knowledgeable advisory panels need to be established, along with a realistic research test bed with ground-truth and relevant data bases. Implementing the recommendations of this chapter will ensure that CTBT monitoring efforts continue to have the critical influx of research innovations and technical developments vital to an effective monitoring operation.
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