A Plan for a Research Program on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change (1996) / Chapter Skim
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4 THE PROPOSED ICARUS PROGRAM AND RECOMMENDED RESEARCH
4 THE PROPOSED ICARUS PROGRAM AND RECOMMENDED RESEARCH
Pages 107-122
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From page 107... ...
Reduction in this uncertainty requires an integrated program that will pull together the research capabilities of the aerosol and atmospheric science communities in this country. The proposed Interagency Climate-Aerosol Radiative Uncertainties and Sensitivities (ICARUS)
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From page 108... ...
Therefore, as a first step in Action Item 1, we recommend that the four federal program managers who requested this report define leadership for U.S. climate-aerosol research by forming a Science Team and an Executive Committee for an ICARUS program.
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From page 109... ...
Action 2: Establish Research Priorities; Mobilize ICARUS by Developing Method to Define Research Priorities The procedure for setting research priorities starts with evaluations of the sensitivities of climate predictions to uncertainties in a host of processes (cloud cover, ocean circulation, air-surface fluxes, snow and ice cover, etc., including changes in atmospheric aerosols) ; the result is the familiar USGCRP "priority framework." The USGCRP should reevaluate its science priorities to establish the importance of aerosols to climate sensitivity and uncertainty, relative to all other sources of uncertainties in climate predictions, and then define and adopt an appropriate funding priority for the ICARUS program.
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From page 110... ...
and thereby invite all interested scientists, federal agencies, and all relevant international research programs to submit detailed plans for proposed climate-aerosol research projects for evaluation by ICARUS Science Team groups. In particular, we encourage NASA and DOE to progress from the available "strategic documents" describing CLIMSAT and an aerosol component of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)
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From page 111... ...
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE ICARUS PROGRAM The suggested organizational structure of the ICARUS program is shown In Figure 4.1. The ICARUS Executive Committee would be composed of the program managers of the four federal agencies and selected members from the ICARUS Science Team.
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From page 112... ...
We stressed that this should be an integrated program involving process studies, model development and evaluation, field measurements, and technology development. In this final section of the report, we recommend specific research tasks, together with estimated costs and durations.
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From page 113... ...
Large, multiplatform field studies (e.g., ACE-l) land global surface-based monitoring network Satellite system development <1 1 -5 1 0-20 >50 lAn example of the difficulty of estimating the cost of a large, multiplatform field program is provided by the Southern Hemisphere Marine Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-l)
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From page 114... ...
Global Climate Model Development Project 1. Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Aerosol Forcing in Global Climate Models Using existing global climate and global chemistry models, determine relative sensitivities of both global and regional climate predictions to uncertainties in aerosol forcing versus uncertainties in other factors, such as cloud parameterizations.
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From page 115... ...
Number of projects Duration of each project Cost per project 4 2 years $500,000 per year Project 2. Development of Global-Scale Aerosol Radiative Forcing Models Develop and evaluate the next-generation models of aerosol radiative forcing at scales from regional to global, incorporating all chemical, physical, and meteorological processes that are important in determining the concentrations, radiative and cloud-nucleating properties, and direct and indirect radiative forcing from natural and anthropogenic aerosols.
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From page 116... ...
This includes laboratory experiments on pure and mixed-component aerosols, together with in situ measurements of ambient particles for important classes of tropospheric aerosols. Also included are theoretical treatments and in situ and satellite measurements of cloud optical properties and albedo to determine the accuracy of the treatment of cloud optical properties in global models.
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From page 117... ...
The goals are to integrate satellite radiation measurements and surface-based column-integrated radiation measurements with in situ (aircraft) chemical, physical, and optical measurements in both clear-sky and cloud environments, and in both clean and anthropogenically influenced air masses.
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From page 118... ...
A high-density network of about 30 stations spanning North America will characterize the spatial distribution, seasonal variability, and trends of aerosol optical depth with a spatial coverage suitable for testing chemical transport and radiative transfer models. A companion network of about 10 stations will provide detailed information on means, variability, and trends of key aerosol radiative, chemical, and microphysical properties, for different aerosol types, that are used in chemical transport and radiative transport models.
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From page 119... ...
For improving retrievals of tropospheric aerosol optical depth, especially over land, and for determining the vertical distribution of tropospheric aerosols globally, we recommend that a spaceborne aerosol backscatter measuring lidar operating at a minimum of 2 wavelengths with the capability of measuring depolarization be flown as soon as possible. On the same spacecraft, a carefully designed set of ancillary instruments Foresighted with the lidar should be flown, e.g., an imager to aid in horizontal extrapolation.
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From page 120... ...
Development of Rapid, Lightweight Samplers for In Situ Chemical Analysis of Atmospheric Aerosols Number of projects Duration of each project Cost per project Satellite Technology Development Project 1. Satellite Development 2 4 years $250,000 per year The goal is to develop the capability to monitor extinction profiles (i.e., vertically resolved aerosol optical depths)
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From page 121... ...
Other integration tasks, however, will require separate and sometimes substantial funding, including establishing and maintaining quality assured data bases; providing coordination and support services for field campaigns; funding model and measurement intercomparison studies; and performing a variety of management tasks, such as hosting workshops
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From page 122... ...
22 AEROSOL RADIATIVE FORCING AND CLIMATE CHANGE and annual meetings, and publishing proceedings. Consequently, ICARUS's first REP should solicit proposals for providing integration services, possibly through a management contract.
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