Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2 Reports of the Panels (1983) / Chapter Skim
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IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's
IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's
Pages 361-413
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From page 361... ...
delineating how astronomers progress through the stages of an astronomical career: undergraduate, graduate student, postdoctoral recipient, tenure-track, and then tenured. Our surveys indicate that the most severe constriction in the pipeline occurs at the juncture between the postdoctoral and the tenure-track stages.
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From page 362... ...
. Table 6.1 shows, not surprisingly, that astronomers are significantly underrepresented in industry compared with both the physics/astronomy community as a whole and with the total scientific community.
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From page 363... ...
and "astronomy" departments used here is one that is consistently followed in our Panel report: an "astronomy" department is one that is listed separately, with its own chairman, in the AIP Directory of Physics and Astronomy Staff Members (American Institute of Physics, 1979) and that has a majority of department members working in astronomy.
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From page 364... ...
:::::::: :-~:: T ~ ~ D ED A DO ::::Y:-:::::::::: ;:::::::::::::::: i:: An'' ' ~;~:2: `:::::::~::::: 'n`. :~ _ Fiji::::: :::::: ::~:: ~ :: :: I 50 PERSONS FIGURE 6.4 The bottleneck in the astronomical employment pipeline occurs at the point where a permanent position would normally be expected.
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From page 365... ...
A list of the departments awarding such degrees in 1975 illustrates that many wellknown astronomical research institutions fall into this category: Caltech, Florida, Johns Hopkins, Hawaii, Louisiana State, MIT, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, University of New Mexico, New York University, Northwestern, Princeton (physics department) , Rensselaer Polytechnic, Rochester, Syracuse, Texas A&M, Washington (St.
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From page 366... ...
This reservoir represents between 5 and 12% of the astronomical labor force. We recognize that some of the research-associate positions can be regarded as satisfactory from a long-term standpoint; these are represented in the figure by a pipe leading from the reservoir to the right-hand side of the picture (representing permanent positions)
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From page 367... ...
about those who were postdoctoral recipients or research associates in 1977/1978 and 1978/1979. We asked department chairmen the status of these persons in January 1980, a time interval such that the Persons had some opportunity to attempt to obtain a permanent position.
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From page 368... ...
These studies have the disadvantage of examining people in various career stages. While it might be possible to examine the location and employment of people a specified number of years after receiving the Ph.D.
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From page 369... ...
For some unknown and unknowable additional fraction, the institutional climate and confidence in institutional leadership makes their positions satisfying even in the absence of explicit guarantees. However, nearly half of the people in this pool are in extended postdoctoral holding patterns or are in visiting
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From page 370... ...
faculty positions, and some others are in temporary research-associate positions. Our proposal for the creating of an increased number of stable research associate positions with professional stature equivalent to faculty positions addresses this problem.
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; source: NRC Summary Report: 1978 Doctoral Recipients for United States Universities, 1979) ; physics (filled circles)
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From page 372... ...
Figure 6.8 also shows that an increasing fraction of academic astronomers are working in departments that are physics departments by our definition. Of the class of 1959-1961, some 70% of those in academic positions are in separate astronomy departments; of the class of 1970 (who for the most part have found stable, permanent positions)
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From page 373... ...
degrees in a particular year; boxes, percentage of degrees awarded by Physics or Physics and Astronomy Departments; boxed crosses, percentage of graduates currently in academic positions who are in Physics or Physics and Astronomy Departments.
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From page 374... ...
degrees awarded in astronomy in the 1970's as has occurred in physics. almost restoring the 1920's ratio of one astronomy Ph.D.
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From page 375... ...
Army, computer programming, nuclear reactor analysis, biomedical statistics, oil company employees, remote sensing, president of a software company, president of a firm An o ~ 15 LL o 20 10 _ I1J in 5 _ ~,1: o ' '' ' 1 ' ' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' ....... 25 30 ~ I r I I I I I I I I I ~ I 35 40 45 50 AGE AT DROP FIGURE 6.10 American Astronomical Society (AAS)
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From page 376... ...
m e most recent data point of course includes a number of persons who have not yet Found permanent positions. The trend, however, is clear and 80 60 111 t~ 40 I1J 20 o ~ [ 1 1 1 1 1 1960 1965 1970 1975 Y EAR FIGURE 6.ll The fraction of astronomers currently working in the United States who receive their salaries from federal research funds as a function of the year in which they received their Ph.D.
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From page 377... ...
Simple models, in which astronomy departments grow or shrink in direct proportion to student enrollments, predict zero growth in the 1980's. Nonacademic astronomers depend on the federal government as the ultimate source of salary dollars.
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From page 378... ...
If talented young people are convinced that there is no future in astronomy, then they will go elsewhere. Long-range planning is essential, because the training of an astronomer, including the postdoctoral stage, takes 7 to 8 years.
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379 z 20 o J ~ _ cc In 15 o Z ~ o O J J J O — ~ ~ 10 Cot 1 0 5 I I T P°~\ ~ ~ ~ _ -0E / hem . 1 1 1 1 1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR FIGURE 6.12 College-age population in the United States for the remainder of the century.
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From page 380... ...
Extrapolating from 1978, when 1850 astronomers were employed in faculty positions, we assume that the number of astronomers grows
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From page 381... ...
mortality rate of 0.62%, applied by him to faculty in general, would indicate that about 11 astronomers currently working would die over this period. According to this simple model, the term average demand for academic astronomers in the years 1984 through 1994 is exactly zero.
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From page 382... ...
, according to our simple model. The dashed line shows the expected number of retirements.
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From page 383... ...
383 of deaths plus retirements -- 20 annually. This is the most significant source for perturbations on the plus side for astronomy: astronomy departments that can successfully participate in efforts to tap additional markets for college students will thrive.
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have been increasing through the 1970's, as shown in Figure 6.1S. Can this sort of expansion provide a significant number of new academic positions in the 1980's?
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Both classes of institutions showed some growth in the number of astronomers in faculty positions. (Research associates, postdoctoral recipients, and others without faculty titles were excluded.)
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From page 386... ...
for 1973-1974 and from the AIP Directory of Physics and Astronomy Staff Members for 1978-1979. The lists of major public and private universities were taken from NRC, Research Excellence through the Year 2000, Table 13, for those institutions that have numbers tabulated in the sources listed above.
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From page 387... ...
8. Grounds for Pessimism: Possible Markets That Don't Exist Junior Colleges: Approximately one fourth of all college students are in 2-year institutions, but only a few percent of academic AAS members teach in such places.
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From page 388... ...
But most people in industry doing astronomy are supported by federal grants, and as such they form part of the group of astronomers supported by federal dollars -- people working for NASA, for FFRDC's such as Kitt Peak National Observatory, as research associates in universities, and for their own companies. In light of this situation, we cannot encourage the expansion of graduate programs.
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From page 389... ...
astronomers publishing in the Astrophysical Journal in 1977. A high percentage of astronomical research is done by university astronomers.
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While the number of astronomers (as measured by membership in the AAS) has increased by 36%, the number of published papers has increased by 69% (during the period 196 to 1978)
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From page 391... ...
391 numbers of planetary system and x-ray, extreme-ultraviolet, gamma-ray, and cosmic-ray papers. The percentages of the total papers that fall into various subfields are given in Figure 6.19.
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65 68 71 74 1977 YEAR GRAVITY & . _~ RELATIVITY ~ COSMIC RAY —~ GAMMA RAY FIGURE 6.20 Breakdown by technique of papers published in the Astrophysical Journal.
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From page 393... ...
By sharing the large costs of modern astronomical facilities among several nations, instruments that might not otherwise be built are funded, and the total funding available for research may be increased. Competition among scientists spurs individuals to their best efforts, with the result that the best science gets done.
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From page 394... ...
Other planned or existing missions with international participation include Space Telescope, International Solar Polar Mission, Infrared Astronomy Satellite Explorer (IRAS) , OS0-8, HEAD-3, Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO)
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/CTIO, Max Planck Institute for Radiophysics (MPIfR) , National Radio Astronomy Observatory, and Sacramento Peak Observatory for 1977-1978.
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Although this ratio is subject to various interpretations, it is broadly indicative of the degree to which the facilities meet the needs. Table 6.5 gives the oversubscription rate for various astronomical facilities in the United States for 1978-1979.
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From page 398... ...
Using the 4-m telescope on Kitt Peak as an example, only 42% of the proposals and 31% of the requested observing time in the dark of the moon can be accommodated. This oversubscription is not caused by astronomers requesting much more time than they need in anticipation of being cut back during the time assignment process; the average dark-time proposal on the 4-m telescope at KPNO is cut from 4.5 to 3.5 nights by the time assignment committee, a relatively small factor.
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2. Access to the National Centers broadens the research community.
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guestinvestigator programs. The Space Telescope will have an even more elaborate arrangement in which the Space Telescope Science Institute will operate the telescope and administer the guest-investigator programs.
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401 astronomy to the public. millions.
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The level of such activity could be increased if astronomy departments and other organizations set up speakers' bureaus. Groups wanting speakers often do not know how to find an astronomer who will talk to them.
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. An additional 58,672 students are in introductory courses in physics departments with graduate programs.
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3. NASA Funding for Astronomy Within NASA, most astronomy funding in the 1970's has come from the physics and astronomy programs.
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gram functions include supporting research and technology (SR&T) , project funding (spacecraft development and mission operations)
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From page 406... ...
406 NASA TOTAL = 21 °'o / NASA / NONE \ 22X \ NONE S3 ~ \ ~ NASA TOTAL = 32°' l NSF TOTAL = 36°' 42co ~ /4~/\ 1 1 ~ NSF 23% 7 °- \ OTH ER \_ 14~ J 1965 OTHER TOTAL = 276' NSr TOTAL = 49% NASA 17% 1977 ',i; 28°lo 1 0 °' \ OTHER gcO 70THER TOTAL = 24 FIGURE 6.24 Changes in the funding pattern for papers published in the Astrophysical Journal. (From Kuhner, 1978.)
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Astronomy funding from NSF is plotted as a fraction of the total NSF budget (dashed line)
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The Explorer program initially contained spacecraft development, mission operations, and data analysis. With establishment of a separate Mission Operations and Data Analysis budget line in 1977, the Explorer line now contains only spacecraft development funds.
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From page 409... ...
Note that all are astronomical except the Orbiting Geophysical Observatories in the 1960's and about 50% of the Spacelab payloads initiated in the late 1970's. The trends are obvious -- a decreasing rate in the 1960's as Orbiting Solar Observatories and Orbiting Astronomical Observatories phased out and a significant increase in the mid to late 1970's occasioned by HEAD's, SSM, SST, International Solar Polar Mission, and Spacelab.
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1982 values are based on the March 1981 Reagan Administration revised budget submission, which deferred the GRO, reduced SL, and canceled the U.S. portion of the International Solar Polar Mission.
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Tololo Inter-American Observatory, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, National Atmospheric and Ionospheric Center, and Sacramento Peak Observatory) ; and Facilities [such as Very Large Array (VLA)
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With the completion of the VLA, there is no major facilities construction in the NSF Astronomy Program starting in 1981 (initiation of a proposed 25-m millimeter wave telescope has been deferred because of federal budget restrictions)
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The total grant funding and the number of grants are plotted in actual dollars. The average grant size shows a 50% increase from 1970 to 1980: the Consumer Price Index rose twice as rapidly during that time.
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