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The Use of Multi-State Life Tables in Estimating Places for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists A Technical Paper (1997) / Chapter Skim
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MODELING THE BIOMEDICAL/BEHAVIORAL WORKFORCE: STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
Pages 7-8

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From page 7...
... These types of models can probably produce more accurate short-term projections than alternative models because most of the filture workforce already exists as part of the base period workforce, and information about that workforce is used as a basis for estimation of the model parameters. For a population in which there is relatively little turnover, errors arising from the projections will be small.6 In 6The magnitude of such errors will vary directly with the size of projected flows relative to the size of the workforce.
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From page 8...
... Another possible limitation arises from the assumption usually made by such models that their estimates of transition rates are given and not sensitive to market conditions and/or other factors that could affect flows into, out of, and within these workforces.7 If transition rates are influenced by factors not included in the description of the demographic system, projections using them are likely to prove inaccurate. Demographic models can, 7With sufficient data, it might be possible to estimate how transition rates depend on market conditions.
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Key Terms

  • market conditions
  • demographic models
  • demographic model
  • period workforce
  • base workforce

  • excess supply
  • heterogeneous sample
  • improperly specified
  • probably produce
  • field mobility

  • separate fields
  • vary directly
  • projected flows
  • behavioral workforce
  • affect transition

  • assumed fixed
  • models constructed
  • assumption usually
  • earlier models
  • rates depend

  • disparate behavior
  • flows relative
  • limitation arises
  • sufficient data
  • little turnover

  • projections using
  • alternative models
  • display disparate
  • errors arising
  • vary due


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