Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation (1997) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix D
Appendix D
Pages 180-183
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From page 180... ...
This uncertainty can arise, for example, from a lack of knowledge about the operational circumstances of future battles, the combat processes being described, simplifying assumptions that lead to stochastic components in the model, or human behavioral elements. While such uncertainty is generally intrinsic to such models, all too frequently attempts are made to remove uncertainty from the model, that is, to suppress the issue.
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From page 181... ...
As a result, it becomes necessary to adopt a highly structured approach. For example, the field of statistical design of experiments with tools such as fractional factorial or Latin hypercube designs can substantially reduce the number of trials needed to identify important variables, significant combinations of variables, and the optimal combination of variables.2 These design techniques are widely used in industrial applications (albeit applications with fewer uncertain variables than often occur in military problems)
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From page 182... ...
Yes, some M&S accommodates varying some types of data readily, but almost no M&S has yet been designed to facilitate meaningful exploratory analysis of the sort we have in mind here. Much less has it been designed with tools permitting workers to search for critical domains or draw synoptic conclusions.
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From page 183... ...
for a relatively short account of this work and some of the unclassified insights from initial exploratory analysis of future regional contingencies, the upshot of which was to focus attention on Achilles' heel problems and the potential for "asymmetric strategies" by the adversary, rather than different ways to add marginally to the already substantial U.S. capability for "canonical" major regional contingencies with, for example, good use of warning and effective allies.
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