Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation (1997) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix J
Appendix J
Pages 233-238
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From page 233... ...
Discussion of the mine warfare issues is included in a separate panel report on undersea warfare (Volume 7 of the nine-volume series, Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21stCentury Force) , but in this report it seemed useful to point out that the issues are of a class that can be found throughout DOD.
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From page 234... ...
CLASSIC EXAMPLES OF CORRELATED EFFECTS IN COMBAT MODELS The Fratricide Problem in Strategic Nuclear Warfare In the mid-1970s, an important military issue was whether emerging Soviet ICBMs would be able to destroy U.S. Minuteman ICBMs in their silos.
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From page 235... ...
This calculation treats the probability of fratricide as a mere parameter, but where did the value come from? A number of scientists attempted estimates of the fratricide effect, but the most insightful work was probably that accomplished with detailed simulations that considered flight dynamics, shock waves, the nature of the dust cloud, the characteristics of the RVs themselves (ruggedness, ballistic coefficient, and so on)
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From page 236... ...
For example, if one tried to defend an aircraft carrier against nuclear-armed ballistic or cruise missiles, the effort would be hopeless against an opponent able to defeat the local defenses, something that typically requires many fewer weapons that one might think because of leakage. There are many other "configural effects" in BMD.
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From page 237... ...
DISCUSSION These examples demonstrate that the configural effects noted in mine warfare theory are not only real, but akin mathematically to effects long recognized as fundamental in other domains of defense analysis. It should not be controversial to observe that proper modeling of combat must account adequately for probabilistic dependencies.3 In mine warfare (and also in subjects such as penetration of air defenses)
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From page 238... ...
A deeper reason is that untutored intuition is often poor on issues involving probabilistic calculations. Indeed, probabilistic effects are sufficiently nonintuitive that workers often revert to simplified and naive calculations (including deterministic calculations when they are clearly inappropriate)
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