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2 Technological Prospects for DOD's M&S
Pages 28-43

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From page 28...
... Next discussed is the special integrative role that M&S is coming to play, which will be crucial as warfare operations become more technically and organizationally complex, and as the systems to support such operations become similarly so. The panel then offers some illustrative forecasts and visions of the future, looking both at applications (the demand-pull side of the problem)
From page 29...
... It is notoriously difficult to estimate cost savings or cost avoidance due to M&S because, in practice, one could not afford to use the real aircraft, ships, and submarines included in the simulations. However, if one calculates what doing so would have cost, then the Kernel Blitz exercise saved about $16 million.
From page 30...
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From page 31...
... reached the following conclusion based largely on the Kernel Blitz experience: At this point, simulation should be viewed as enriching training and increasing readiness rather than reducing costs. Operational Testing: F/A-18 Weapons Software Support Facility As a third example, the panel draws on work by Michelle Bailey of the Navy's China Lake facility (see Worley et al., 1996~.
From page 32...
... These issues were noted and addressed vigorously within the Navy during the late 1980s by Admiral William Owens, who later, as Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, created the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) and Joint Warfare Capabilities Assessment (JWCA)
From page 33...
... As but one example, officers from all Services will develop an increasingly common perspective of a theater operation by training and planning with joint systems with embedded simulations. This in turn will force resolution of issues such as interservice communication protocols, a long-standing obstacle to effective operations.
From page 34...
... Similarly, fluid dynamicists worldwide can communicate readily about fluid flow. By lit had certainly not been adequately achieved as this report was prepared by a virtual panel connected electronically.
From page 35...
... To make the point more strongly, consider the contrast: excellent processing algorithms, graphics, and distributed simulation technology are available currently, but no major models are able to represent, for example, highly nonlinear warfare with dispersed forces and decentralized forms of command-and-control in the information age. Returning to the theme of M&S infrastructure, a new vision of M&S is emerging in which it not only provides cross-pollination between existing, legacy stovepiped systems, but also will provide a new level of integrated support for many activities within each of the services and the previous stovepipe.
From page 36...
... SOME OBSERVATIONS, FORECASTS, AND IMAGES A primary DOD effort in recent years has been to reform the acquisition process. The legacy process has been one of sequential activities resulting in long development times, high costs, and in some cases inability to achieve the desired product.
From page 37...
... Design inconsistencies will be reduced in this way, thereby eliminating costly and time-consuming rework in the manufactured product. In addition, design information can be reviewed by the manufacturers, who can identify design elements that would be particularly costly to produce before a commitment to production is made.
From page 38...
... The point here is that by investing earlier in simulation testing of concepts, one can discard lesser designs fairly early and pick the best not long thereafter. Further, because of the heavy interaction with users and the critical use of integrated digital design representations, as discussed above, the hope is that initial operational capability (IOC)
From page 39...
... The Secretary of Defense and Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff; are asking the commanderfor his recommended course of action. Earlier today, as his carrier battle group and a Marine expeditionary unit (ME U)
From page 40...
... A portion of the staff is now developing and testing detailed versions of the courses of action with M&S that reproduces with highfidelity the time lines of all the key operational tasks that would have to be performed. At this point, they have recommended the delay option because simulation has indicated that the early assault would be defeated by Blakos forces in Lazune and arriving within the next 6 hours.
From page 41...
... He is even able to stop it and make changes. For example, he instructs staff to make model changes to reflect the new information on the SAMs' vulnerabilities to countermeasures, and the apparent feasibility of disconnecting the SAM with information warfare attacks on the regional command post of the Blakos army, even if the command post is dispersed.
From page 42...
... There are many tools currently available to make lowlevel suggestions about optimal time to launch missiles, how to find routes, and so on. But a mixed-initiative planner would do much more, for example, suggest 8 SAFOR systems typically provide a capability for the user to manually override the automated lowlevel behaviors, so the split between manual echelons and automated echelons is somewhat variable in the course of a simulation.
From page 43...
... · By 2015, credible simulation of combat operations before and during combat, including two-sided information warfare simulation. · Greatly improved semiautomated forces (SAFOR)


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