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Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation (1997) / Chapter Skim
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3 Potential Failures and Disasters for DOD's M&S
Pages 44-48

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From page 44...
... the inherent complexity of emerging military systems and operations. INTELLECTUAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Strong Technological Base One basic problem is that DOD's high-visibility work on M&S is dominated by content-neutral computer and software technologies such as object-oriented programming, high-performance computing, computer-aided design, and establishing the communications protocols and infrastructure for everything from collaborative, distributed, multidisciplinary, simulation-based engineering design to large-scale distributed war games.
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From page 45...
... It is an open secret and a point of distress to many in the community that too much of the substantive content of such M&S has its origin in anecdote, the infamous BOGSAT (bunch of guys sitting around a table) , or a narrow construction tied to stereotypical current practices of "doctrinally correct behavior." There is a need for focused research on the phenomena of combat and other military activities, both historical and prospective.
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From page 46...
... , there is a feeling with at least some members of the engineering community interviewed in the course of the study that they have nearly reached the limits of complexity that can be addressed with current tools and methods. Challenging examples that could lie beyond current approaches include future generation networks and very large scale integrated circuits.
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From page 47...
... Likewise, the complexity of a large-scale intelligence system, in terms of its data collection and processing components, results from the need to reduce uncertainty about the enemy. Many engineering disciplines take this perspective control theorists construct feedback mechanisms to cope with uncertainties in the performance of actual systems, and statisticians devise sampling schemes to reduce uncertainties in measured properties.
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From page 48...
... As the situation now stands, these matters of interaction and uncertainty are daunting challenges. But, as noted, the difficulty of designing and predicting the performance of complex systems makes the need for M&S of such systems all the greater.
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Key Terms

  • inherent complexity
  • substantive content
  • traffic behavior
  • scale integrated
  • reduce uncertainties

  • construction tied
  • considered increases
  • final overall
  • theorists construct
  • modern weapon

  • correct behavior
  • inadequate research
  • current approaches
  • infamous bogsat
  • building complex

  • inconsistent formalisms
  • simple interaction
  • design tools
  • denver airport
  • engineering design

  • assumptions generating
  • measured properties
  • behavior obviously
  • chapter focuses
  • transportation simulation

  • current practices
  • anticipated combat
  • statisticians devise
  • military operations
  • current tools


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