Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation (1997) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-17
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Modeling and simulation will be core tools for planning and conducting warfare as revolutionary changes in military affairs take place, especially since intuition based on past wars will become less helpful over time. · Indeed, independent of Navy and Marine actions, M&S will be deeply embedded within joint command-and-control systems.
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The escalating complexity of planned systems and operations creates profound integration challenges requiring superb M&S for success and for the avoidance of downright failures. All of this suggests that the Department of the Navy needs to make an attitude shift regarding M&S, which has never previously merited a high priority for leadership attention.
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RICH OPPORTUNITIES FOR MODELING AND SIMULATION Modeling and simulation (M&S) offers the promise of greatly enhancing future naval force capabilities and achieving major cost savings.
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Key uses include developing and assessing proposed courses of action, mission planning and rehearsal, and dynamic situation assessment and adaptation in the course of battle. M&S-based decision support also has an important role in peacetime activities such as concept evaluation and resource allocation.
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and the Army's tactical training system, new modeling of C4ISR effects in JWARS, development of object models, and research on configural effects. Even in these cases, however, the work has often been more like "computer modeling" than establishing an empirical and theoretical research base.
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The military operations envisioned for future forces in the information era involve exceedingly complex systems. Complexity is a multifaceted concept, but to appreciate some of what is involved here, the panel notes that planners, commanders, and engineers are most familiar and comfortable with systems (and models)
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Thus, it is important to the Department of the Navy that naval forces be adequately represented. Otherwise, valuable training opportunities will be compromised and the Navy and Marines will suffer in the competitions about doctrinal changes, future missions, and force-structure tradeoffs.
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There will be major shortcomings with respect to both content and performance. Consequently, the panel recommends that the Navy insist that DOD and the program offices adopt open-architecture attitudes that will promote rather than discourage substitution of improved modules as ideas arise from the research and operations communities, and that they build explicit and well-exercised mechanisms to ensure that such substitutions occur.
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· Different types of models. The systems should accommodate model types as diverse as general state-space and simple Lanchester equations, entity-level "physics-based" models, and agent-based models with emergent behaviors.
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Further, it should be possible to discard or abstract complexities irrelevant to the problem at hand. Doing so runs directly counter to the common inclination to seek high resolution for everything, but tailored simplifications are crucial in applicationsespecially when they involve "exploratory analysis" over diverse situations and assumptions rather than point calculations.
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need to make up for past failures to invest adequately in research, this is a domain in which a total of $20 million to $30 million per year can accomplish a great deal. As a first list of warfare areas for focused research, the panel recommends the following, which have some overlaps: · Expeditionary warfare and littoral operations; · Joint task force operations with dispersed forces; · Long-range precision strike against forces employing countermeasures; · Theater-missile defense, including counterforce and speed-of-light weapon options, against very large ballistic-missile and cruise-missile threats; and · Short-notice, early-entry operations with opposition.
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By exercising such models and simulation-based alternatives in an exploratory manner (as distinct from answering specific questions) , it should be possible to develop decision aids of great value in training, acquisition, and operations.
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More often it is possiblealthough unusual and difficult to design integrated families of models that can be mutually calibrated using information available in many forms and resolutions, and to do so with full recognition of statistical averaging issues. Such families of integrated hierarchical models would be invaluable in all application areas and would substantially improve validity, traceability, and the design of exploratory analyses.
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, which will assist in establishing semantic consistency in particular contexts and in developing integrated families of models. Advanced Methodologies The general task of developing and using models and simulations, and the particular activity of forming phenomenological representations, would be aided by methodological advances.
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Realization of this capability requires being able to manage large numbers of objects and to ensure consistency despite involvement of multiple developers. Such a capability could reduce costs in simulation development and allow flexibility in simulation application.
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, · Providing scientific review of such models to advise the Navy about the quality of the models in relation to scientific knowledge and best practices in the community, and · Redefining the JWARS and JSIMS programs to have a continuing component responsible for reviewing, sponsoring, and incorporating research results. The function should be one of nourishing military science, not merely administration or auditing.
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From page 17... ...
and usefulness to decision makers. As discussed above, the panel believes that the appropriate strategy would place considerable emphasis on warfare areas and cross-cutting modeling challenges, rather than still more emphasis on computer and software technology.
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