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Engineering Infrastructure Diagramming and Modeling (1986) / Chapter Skim
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4. Modeling
Pages 41-46

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From page 41...
... The adequacy of available data reflects the broad consensus viewpoint and the definition of historically significant variables. Critique of Existing Models A large number of models and studies have been made of various aspects of engineering manpower.
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From page 42...
... This can also be complicated by cyclical overcorrections. Developing the CEUE Simulation Model The Panel on Infrastructure Diagramming and Modeling found that existing models did not describe the engineering community in sufficient detail to analyze the flows described in the flow diagram discussed in Chapter 3.
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From page 43...
... The historical module uses historical data obtained from many sources and produces on the color monitor graphic representations of these data. There are also various options available for the user that permit trend analysis.
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From page 44...
... Projected values of the key variables used in this simulation model are generally leased on the naive assumption of no future changes in their value. However, the population projections reflect the declining birth rates that were experienced beginning in the late 1950s and continuing to the present time.3 Based on these population projections, a steady decline in the future annual 18-year-old cohorts to about 75 percent of current numbers could result in a decline in the number of future engineering graduates.
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From page 45...
... Overall, the percentage of female engineering graduates increased lay a factor of 10 during the 1970s. Changes in minority participation can be sized lay changing overall participation rates.
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From page 46...
... Almost all variables changed lay 25 percent or more over the period, and many moved lay a factor of 2. Thus, exercising the CLUE model with the naive assumptions described earlier would lie inadequate for many purposes regardless of how refined or detailed the model was.
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Key Terms

  • clue model
  • simulation model
  • school graduates
  • historical module
  • infrastructure diagramming

  • engineering work
  • ceue simulation
  • population pools
  • population projections
  • foreign nationals

  • female participation
  • population distribution
  • engineering community
  • birth rates
  • engineering personnel

  • color monitor
  • engineering graduates
  • painfully little
  • module predicts
  • model results

  • modeling found
  • analyzing flows
  • projections reflect
  • flow diagram
  • steady decline

  • chosen lay
  • future annual
  • panel decided
  • overall participation
  • model referred


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