Defining a Decade Envisioning CSTB's Second 10 Years (1997) / Chapter Skim
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4 ENGINES OF PROGRESS: SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND ISSUES
4 ENGINES OF PROGRESS: SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND ISSUES
Pages 22-35
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From page 22... ...
: "It is difficult to predict, especially the future." With that in mind, this paper focuses on how productive the semiconductor industry has been over the past 50 years, its status in 1995, the road map for the industry for the next 15 years, some of the challenges that the industry faces, a few predictions, and a final caveat. The productivity of silicon technology is usually measured in the cost reduction of memory or the increase in processing power.
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From page 23... ...
This leads to prediction 2: There is no physical barrier to the transistor effect in silicon being the Drincinal element in the semiconductor industry to the year 2010. Although the road map projects technology generations for 15 years in the future and the technology required for that projection, it does not define solutions for all of the technology requirements.
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From page 24... ...
Lithography and interconnect represent the two major costs in the manufacture of integrated circuits. Figure 4.3 shows the road map for lithography and some potential solutions for lithographic requirements.
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From page 25... ...
The question is whether this technology will provide components at a cost low enough to keep personal computer prices at roughly $2,000 with better data capability, limited voice, and faster video. The challenge of programs in the government and at SEMATECH is to bring packaging costs down so that they remain on the same level as chip costs.
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From page 26... ...
26 DEFINING A DECADE: ENVISIONING CSTB'S SECOND 10 YEARS °W - HelSrSum ~!
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ENGINES OF PROGRESS 27 Q Cal m a..
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From page 28... ...
Let me go back to a point made earlier in looking at technology changes that have led to the continued productivity growth of integrated circuits and where those technology changes originated. Most of the technology used in the manufacture of modern semiconductors came from industrial laboratories such as Bell Labs, IBM, Texas Instruments, Fairchild, and Phillips.
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From page 29... ...
Engineers and scientists have typically found ways to overcome technology barriers, the industry has continued to grow at an amazing rate, and productivity continues to increase at 25 to 30 percent per year in silicon technology. This has led to the semiconductor industry as the economic driving force for the Information Age.
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From page 30... ...
Every child knows that smaller things are faster. The reduction in feature size increases the circuit density quadratically with the scaling factor, but if the current is also reduced in proportion, the power per device is reduced quadratically with the scaling factor.
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From page 31... ...
ENGINES OF PROGRESS C ~ ~-~= E E ~ ~ o O & b ~ ~ ~ o S ~ ~ is s y sat , ~ _, ., ~ ~ ~ ~ (ARMS Sol) di4olslolsls~!
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From page 32... ...
During the past decade or so, we have seen chip designers adopt analogous disciplines. Frequently, these voluntary restrictions are tied into the design tools, just as programming disciplines are frequently incorporated into programming notations.
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If John Hennessy (another former member) had been here, he could have told you about RISC (reduced instruction set computing and cache memories.
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From page 34... ...
It would be great if the people in the IBM Lab in Zurich actually had gotten room temperature superconductors rather than liquid hydrogen temperature superconductors because, as Chuck Seitz pointed out, the major problem in the future is going to be 10 to 15 to 20 layers of metal or interconnect that may not be metal. This is where the controlling features are going to be.
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From page 35... ...
SEITZ: Many of the processing media, sensor outputs and so on, of military embedded systems use digital signal processing chips. The typical digital signal processing chip dispenses with all the address translation hardware and other facilities required to run an operating system on processors used in desktops.
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