Preventing Reading Difficulties in Young Children (1998) / Chapter Skim
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4. Predictors of Success and Failure in Reading
4. Predictors of Success and Failure in Reading
Pages 100-134
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From page 100... ...
instructional environments conducive to learning. This chapter reviews the evidence concerning the predictors of reading achievement: some measurable characteristic of a child or the child's home, school, or community that has been associated with poor progress in learning to read.1 It is critical to distinguish predictors from causes or explanations of reading difficulties -- predictors are simply correlates.
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From page 101... ...
evidence, therefore, these predictors cannot be considered causes of reading problems but rather as associated conditions implicated in reading difficulty. Nevertheless, the fact that these characteristics correlate with subsequent reading achievement is potentially very useful for identifying children who may be in the greatest need of intervention.
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From page 102... ...
In between, the higher the correlation, the stronger the tendency for children who did well on the predictor measure to become good readers, and for children who did poorly initially to end up with lower reading achievement scores later. For example, when reading is measured yearly, correlations between scores in one year with scores in the next year are typically in the .60 to .80 range; in other words, they are quite strong but not perfect.
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From page 103... ...
For other factors, far less information is available regarding the degree of risk they pose. For each predictor, we describe the average strength of its correlation with future reading achievement and, when possible, estimate the probabilities of prediction errors and correct predictions from studies in which risk status has been examined in relation to outcome classifications.
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From page 104... ...
In many such cases, delayed language development is the first indication of a broader primary condition, such as a general developmental disability, autism, hearing impairment, or neurological condition, which is likely to be associated with reading difficulty. In other cases, however, an evaluation by a speech-language professional results in a diagnosis of "(specific)
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From page 105... ...
Longitudinal follow-up indicates that, from the beginning of formal schooling, reading disability is relatively common in children with inattention problems (31 percent in first grade) , becoming even more frequent as the child matures (over 50 percent in ninth grade -- S.E.
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From page 106... ...
. A composite measure of infant achievement was found to predict reading status (reading disability or not)
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From page 107... ...
Performance on reading tests was predicted by receptive vocabulary, expressive language ability, receptive language ability, nursery rhyme recitation, and IQ. Correlations of the rhyme-matching measure with later reading were not reported, and this measure was only weakly related to the tests of phonological awareness at 40-55 months, the last of which were strongly predictive of reading.
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From page 108... ...
Here we consider whether variation in language abilities at the time children typically begin to receive formal reading instruction also relates to variability in reading outcomes. Verbal Memory The ability to retain verbal information in working memory is essential for reading and learning, so it might be expected that verbal memory measures would be effective predictors of future reading achievement.
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From page 109... ...
To our knowledge, only five kindergarten prediction studies have included confrontation naming measures in the predictor battery, but the magnitude and consistency of the results of those studies suggest that naming vocabulary is a reliable predictor of future reading ability. On average, expressive vocabulary measures are associated (r = .45)
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From page 110... ...
At least one of the risk factors of interest had to be assessed initially when the children were within about one year of beginning formal schooling in reading, and at least one assessment of reading skills had to be obtained after one, two, or occasionally three years of instruction. If a word recognition measure was used in a prediction study, its correlation(s)
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From page 111... ...
Overall Language In examining the connection between measures of overall language ability and future reading achievement, the highest average correlation has been found when a broad composite index of language abilities has been used. Since only four studies have taken this approach, these findings can be considered promising but not conclusive at this point.
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From page 112... ...
has been about as strong a predictor of future reading as memory for sentences and stories, confrontation naming, and general language measures. When classificatory analyses are conducted, phonological awareness in kindergarten appears to have the tendency to be a more successful predictor of future superior reading than of future reading problems (Wagner, 1997; Scarborough, 1998)
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From page 113... ...
Researchers have tested children's reading readiness, letter identification, and concepts of print to determine whether differences in these abilities can predict differences in future reading achievement. Reading Readiness Reading readiness is a term used by both researchers and educators to mean accomplishment of skills presumed to be prerequisite to benefiting from formal reading instruction.
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From page 114... ...
250 750 1,000 SOURCE: Adapted from Scanlon and Vellutino (1996) The upper part of the table illustrates the pattern of prediction errors when a rather strict criterion was adopted, that is, when letter identification scores were used to identify the bottom 10 percent of kindergartners as at risk.
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From page 115... ...
, and the rate of false positives would increase substantially, such that less than half of the at-risk group would be expected to develop reading difficulties. To increase the accuracy with which kindergartners at greatest risk can be identified, it may be useful to examine other individual risk factors that may provide additional information about how readily a child is likely to learn to read.
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From page 116... ...
Low IQ and lack of general language ability in infancy through kindergarten are associated with future reading difficulties. Also, in kindergarten, reading readiness measures, letter identification, concepts of print, verbal memory for stories and sentences, confrontation naming, overall language, phonological awareness, and expressive vocabulary or naming skills are associated with future reading ability.
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From page 117... ...
were rarely assessed in these studies, so their potential contributions to prediction when combined with other variables remain unknown. In most of the studies, multiple regression analyses yielded measures of the strength of the relationship between kindergarten measures and later reading achievement.
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From page 118... ...
In Catts's study, measures of phonological awareness and rapid serial naming of objects permitted 83 percent of the children's outcomes to be correctly predicted, with a false positive rate of 32 percent and a false negative rate of 13 percent. In the Bishop and Adams sample, the predictor set included IQ and a combination of language ability indices.
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From page 119... ...
Decades of research on the familial aggregation of reading problems suggest that this is so. Factors identified as family risk factors include family history of reading problems, home literacy environment, verbal interaction, language other than English, nonstandard dialect, and family-based socioeconomic status (SES)
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From page 120... ...
The investigators then attempt to use a similar severity criterion to diagnose reading disability in the parents. Evidence for the family nature of reading disability is based on parental rates that are substantially above the 5 to 10 percent rate estimated for the population.
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From page 121... ...
In addition, home characteristics and social class covary to a degree. We review results of longitudinal prediction studies that have examined aspects of the home environment during children's early years (birth to about age 5)
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From page 122... ...
Most longitudinal studies have looked at the home environment of children at different ages and have identified contributors to literacy development. Unless otherwise indicated, measures of home variables were derived from parental interviews or questionnaires administered at or shortly before the children entered kindergarten, and reading achievement was measured by standardized tests in the first and/or second grade (e.g., DeBaryshe, 1993; DeBaryshe et al., 1991; Mason, 1980; Mason and Dunning, 1986; Scarborough et al., 1991; Share et al., 1984; Thomas, 1984; Wells, 1985)
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From page 123... ...
That low reading achievement is a widespread problem among Hispanic students even when they are instructed and tested in Spanish, however, indicates that linguistic differences are not solely responsible for the high degree of risk faced by these children and that the role of co-occurring group risk factors, particularly school quality, home literacy background, and SES, must be considered.
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From page 124... ...
Moreover, teachers who are insensitive to dialect differences may develop negative perceptions of children and low expectations for their achievement, and they may adjust their teaching downward in accord with those judgments. Although these situations undeniably occur, there are many difficulties in measuring the extent to which they happen and the degree to which their occurrence is correlated with, and may contribute to, poor reading achievement.
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From page 125... ...
In other ways, too, low SES often encompasses a broad array of conditions that may be detrimental to the health, safety, and development of young children, which on their own may serve as risk factors for reading difficulties. Teasing apart the various aspects of the environment associated with low SES is virtually impossible, and this should be borne in mind as we discuss some particular risk factors that are linked to poverty.
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From page 126... ...
That is, low SES is an individual risk factor to the extent that among children attending the same schools, youngsters from low-income families are more likely to become poorer readers than those from high-income families. Low SES is also a group risk factor because children from low-income communities are likely to become poorer readers than children from more affluent communities.
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From page 127... ...
Lack of English proficiency for a Hispanic child is a strong indication that he or she is at risk for reading difficulty; however, linguistic differences appear to be less responsible than other co-occurring group risk factors, particularly school quality. In a similar manner, the occurrence of family use of nonstandard dialect and individual family SES covary considerably with factors such as school quality, which is discussed in the next major section of this chapter.
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From page 128... ...
Once the child has begun to attend school and has started to learn to read, the contributions of home and parents may be somewhat different; assistance with homework, listening to the child's efforts at reading aloud, the availability of resources such as a dictionary and an encyclopedia, and so forth may be particularly important for fostering high achievement in school. NEIGHBORHOOD, COMMUNITY, AND SCHOOL-BASED RISK FACTORS As is clear from our discussion of the family-based factors that constitute risks, it is extremely difficult to disentangle the effects of family practices from factors such as the neighborhood where the family lives, the cultural and economic community of which the family is a part, and the school the child attends.
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From page 129... ...
. Classroom practices in ineffective schools (regardless of community SES)
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From page 130... ...
libraries and other media resources were rarely used to their full potential; and (7) there were few systems of public reward for students' academic excellence.
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Misleading conclusions can be reached if risk factors are not interpreted in this light. It must always be borne in mind that many children whose language and literacy skills are weak at the outset of schooling become successful readers.
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From page 132... ...
Individual Risk Factors The evidence also indicates that individual children, whether or not faced with the adverse conditions just mentioned, may be at greater risk than other otherwise-comparable children for reading difficulties for any or all of the following reasons: 1. They are children of parents with histories of reading difficulty; 2.
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From page 133... ...
There is less practical utility in conducting population-wide individual screening of infants, toddlers, and preschoolers who have acquired less knowledge and skills pertaining to literacy during the preschool years, either through lack of appropriate home literacy experiences or as a result of some inherent cognitive limitations, or of those who lack age-appropriate skill in literacy-related cognitivelinguistic processing, for the purpose of identifying those who are at greatest risk for reading difficulties. Some screening (i.e., language milestones)
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