The Demography of Forced Migration Summary of a Workshop (1998) / Chapter Skim
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The Demography of Forced Migration: Summary of a Workshop
The Demography of Forced Migration: Summary of a Workshop
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The number of refugees has fallen somewhat in the past few years, while the number of internally displaced persons has been rising rapidly. In order to assist specific groups of forced migrants and also to better understand the general plight of forced migrants, good demographic data are needed.
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Forced migrant situations can last for years or even decades, and international agencies, governments of countries of asylum, and governments of countries of resettlement may all be involved in planning for the migrants. Forced migrants who are not in camps, under formal protection, or receiving relief services may be the hardest to count, but they also may most need the attention of the international community.
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POPULATION ESTIMATES Defining the Status of Forced Migrants The topic of definitions and nomenclature generated a great deal of discussion during the workshop. Populations that have been displaced for reasons other than environmental disaster or economic crisis can all be considered forced migrants.
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Statistics on forced migrants who come under the mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East are not included in UNHCR's estimates (U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, 1997~.
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From these definitions it may seem that the key difference is whether the people counted have permanent or temporary status, but there are other sources of definitional variance. In order to account for all persons who may be in need of protection and assistance, including those who may not be "official" refugees, USCR keeps statistics on a category of "selected populations in refugee-like situations." These displaced populations are people whose legal status is unclear, such as Palestinians in Jordan who were displaced from the West Bank in 1967, the Burmese in Thailand who may be refugees but might also be economic migrants, and "forced migrants" from the former Soviet republics (Argent,1997~.
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This perspective may result in a broader definition than the model or even the state perspective. Fifth, there are scholars and researchers who study refugees and the problems surrounding them: researchers are often concerned about who are forced migrants, in contrast to voluntary migrants.
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If reliable numbers are not available from any of these sources, registration in camps is often used. Yet registration of forced migrants may not be suitable if the situation seems to be very temporary (tribal conflicts or natural disasters)
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. Differences Between Data Sources Susanne Schmeidl reviewed several reasons that data on forced migrants may differ between the two major sources (UNHCR and USCR)
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When the slaughter of innocent refugees occurs in such places as Zaire and Bosnia, it becomes clear that in a growing number of situations, even those persons located in camps or so-called "safe areas" are not always safe from attack by bands of militias and others. Consequently, security issues are a major issue surrounding the identification of the total number of forced migrants in a crisis situation.
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Committee for Refugees, 1997~. Selfsettlement can make it very difficult for assistance groups to determine who actually fled their homes and to get an accurate count of the forced migrants without accidentally including some of the local population (U.N.
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Black declared that agencies should be more accountable to the forced migrants themselves and less accountable to their funding sources. He reminded participants that the reason refugees and internally displaced persons are of concern to the international community is because they are in need of protection and assistance, not because they have moved from one place to another (Harrell-Bond et al., 1992~.
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A third reason that internally displaced persons are difficult to count is that they have not crossed an international border and their status under international law is ambiguous. Usually, they have few or no legal rights and protections.
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Yet the needs of such displaced persons remain the same, in spite of their quickly changing legal status. Although the emphasis is on people who have been forced to flee violence or human rights violations, victims of natural disaster are included as internally displaced persons under the current working definition.
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Information such as the number of births or deaths, ages, and family relationships may be difficult to obtain from forced migrants themselves. And even if the refugees or internally displaced persons are willing to give information about demographic events or characteristics, relief workers may record these data in ways that do not correspond to Western statistical standards.
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In addition, in order to estimate age-sex-specific mortality rates, one needs to know the composition of the population, and this information, if available, is often faulty. Estimates are thought to be most reliable in situations in which refugees are in an organized camp setting and least reliable where internally displaced persons are spread over a large area.
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When humanitarian assistance teams begin to arrive (Phase 3) , the mortality rate usually declines rapidly.
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Even 2 to 3 years after a crisis has ended, large sample surveys with detailed birth and migration histories can be very useful for learning more about mortality dynamics among forced migrants. It is assumed that refugees are at the highest risk of mortality immediately after their arrival in a host country.
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Jeremiah Sullivan cautioned that such surveys may not be the best choice because they are retrospective and attrition and mortality are likely to be problems with any sample. Zlotnik reminded participants that even the mortality methodologies for stable populations are not fully developed, so one should not expect immediate perfection in the field of forced migration.
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Although many agreed that this information could be useful, some participants worried about data confidentiality. Many conflicting factors both support and discourage the fertility of forced migrants, so it is likely to vary greatly depending on the specific situation.
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Weiner argued that in addition to improving data on forced migrants for relief purposes, researchers should focus on ways that data can be used for other policy purposes. Perhaps data could point to new solutions for preventing conflicts before they begin or for reconstructing communities after a conflict is over.
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This need for topologies of forced migration was recognized by many participants, but it may be one of the most difficult topics on which to agree. Allan Hill discussed the imperative to develop new measurement methods or to extend old methods for use in forced migration situations.
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Other ideas offered by Allan Hill included a World Refugee Survey for the year 2000 and post-emergency assessments in order to evaluate the impact of aid on given situations for better future planning. CONCLUSIONS The workshop highlighted many ways in which demographers can assist in the study of forced migration.
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