An Overview Physics Through the 1990's (1986) / Chapter Skim
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Supplement 2 - Education and Supply of Physicists
Supplement 2 - Education and Supply of Physicists
Pages 91-114
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From page 91... ...
physics graduate students has continued to decline slowly. The decline, coupled with a low retention of Ph.D.s in physics, leads us to expect only minor increases in the physics labor force in the near future.
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From page 92... ...
It is the group that must sustain our physics research effort; train the next generation of students, researchers, and teachers; and provide the talent for a wide variety of related scientific and engineering disciplines. The number of physics graduate students soared during the 1960s, following a rekindled interest in the physical sciences brought on by Sputnik and increased federal support.
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From page 93... ...
Employment opportunities in academe were bright during the early 1960s because of the upsurge in student enrollments and the increased federal grant money for research. The number of positions in research and teaching expanded rapidly, and new physics Ph.D.s quickly filled the assistant professor ranks.
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From page 94... ...
In 1980, assistant professors represented only 14 percent of academic physics staffs, a lower percentage than in any other scientific discipline. With few senior positions opening, many of these assistant professors could not be awarded tenure.
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From page 95... ...
In the 1970s foreign students constituted about one fifth of physics graduate students, or about 600 new foreign nationals a year. As the total number of first-year physics graduate students reached its nadir in 1980 and then began to rise, a major change in the citizenship composition of these students was also occurring.
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From page 96... ...
minorities, e.g., blacks, Puerto Ricans, Mexican Americans, and Native American Indians, is even lower. They make up less than 1 percent of the physics labor force; total production at all degree levels remains low.
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From page 97... ...
EDUCATION AND SUPPLY OF PHYSICISTS 97 22 20 18 16 14 12 LO 10 C: 8 6 4 2 Biology ~ / Earth & Environmental Sciences ~ All Science & Engineering Fields Mathematics Chem istry Physics & Astronomy 1 1 1 1 1 973 1 975 1977 1 979 1 981 1 983 YEAR FIGURE S2.3 Women as a proportion of all doctoral scientists by selected fields, 1973-1983. Full representation is found only among U.S.
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From page 98... ...
The earlier dramatic decline in degree production in the late 1970s and early 1980s reflected only degrees awarded in nuclear structure, an underestimate of the total number produced in nuclear physics. Declining Enrollments in Physics Subfields The steep decline in physics Ph.D.
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From page 99... ...
In the early 1970s, physics faculties, at a median age of 38, may have been unusually young, reflecting the heavy influx of new Ph.D.s during the previous decade. This was certainly not true in 1981, by which time the academic physics community had aged by an average of 6 years to 44.
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From page 100... ...
At the predoctoral, postdoctoral, and junior faculty levels young physicists have traditionally made creative contributions to forefront basic research in physics." The full effect of these contributions frequently does not appear for several decades; thus, many of the accolades of the 1980s have their source in the research activities of young physicists in the halcyon decade of the late l950s and early 1960s. The relative absence of young researchers from today's academic scene is a cause for concern about our ability to pursue effectively the opportunities that lie ahead in physics.
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From page 101... ...
sities. In fact, the median age of the population of physicists employed in industry decreased during the 1970s as young physicists sought out new avenues of employment both within and outside physics.
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From page 102... ...
Basic physics research did not enjoy the same healthy expansion, although a core of dedicated researchers did manage to weather the vagaries of an uncertain decade and continued to carve out new avenues of exploration at the forefront of physics. If basic research is to remain vital through the rest of the twentieth century, it is important to guard against any further erosion in this dwindled pool of human resources and to encourage the infusion of new talent.
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From page 103... ...
Few labor force analysts writing during * The NAS biennial surveys have been used both to establish the employment patterns of physicists in the base year 1981 and to estimate mobility rates.
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From page 104... ...
The combined effects of death and retirement should thus bring a dramatic increase in university employment opportunities in the l990s. Academic positions can also be freed by mobility.
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From page 105... ...
Thus, the following scenarios assume that there will be no real growth in academic physics faculties through most of the remainder of the century. DEMAND SCENARIOS UNIVERSITIES Our projections for university physics demand involve the following three major scenarios.
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From page 106... ...
DEMAND SCENARIOS INDUSTRIAL AND OTHER NONACADEMIC SECTORS Opportunities for physicists over the coming decade will derive prirnanly from openings in industry, government laboratories, and nonprofit organlzations, where 60 percent of Ph.D. physicists are currently employed.
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From page 107... ...
b The three scenarios: low, intermediate, and high reflect the hiring to fill 80, 90, and 100%, respectively, of senior staff openings. TABLE S2.5 Projected Number of Physics Openings in 4-Year Colleges Resulting from Death and Retirement of Senior Staff, 19812001a Academic Years 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total 19812001 Number of Openings Due to Death and Retirement Number of Openings Filled By Replacement Scenariob Low Intermediate High 114 154 243 299 39 64 89 810 53 84 103 279 456 633 87 137 168 120 190 234 a Senior staff are defined as physics Ph.D.s employed as Associate or Full Professors In 4-year colleges.
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From page 108... ...
intermediate projections to describe expected growth in overall physics employment outside of academe.t We pose two basic scenarios for growth in nonacademic physics employment. The first scenario assumes a moderately paced economy reflecting nonacademic growth at approximately the levels that occurred during the 1973-1981 period; This growth would average 3 percent per year, which is consistent with the BLS intermediate projection for physicists through 1995.
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From page 109... ...
Low Outmobility (1% per year) Replacement 803 939 1146 1362 New Openings 757 757 757 757 Total 1560 1696 1903 2119 Moderate Outmobility (1.45% per year)
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From page 110... ...
The assumption presupposes that steps will be taken to alleviate the currently deteriorating condition of precollege science education so that potential physics majors are not disenchanted with science in general before even entering college. Approximately one third of recipients of bachelor's degrees in physics go on to physics graduate study.
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From page 111... ...
Two major factors that reduce this pool must be taken into account: immediate outmobility from physics and the return migration of foreign degree recipients. Many physics Ph.D.s traditionally about 20 percent move into nonphysics employment within 3 years of having received their degree.
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From page 114... ...
If this mismatch occurs, there is likely to be increased competition among employers for well-trained physicists. The divergence between probable demand and supply may be even greater than we have indicated because it does not include the projected increase In employment opportunities in the many neighboring scientific and engineering areas where physicists have always made contributions of major import.
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