Hazards Technology and Fairness (1986) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 11-13
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From page 11... ...
In quantum mechanics there is no uncertainty as to the probability distributions. But in the class of phenomena being discussed here, even though the likelihood of an event's happening or of a disease's being caused by a specific exposure is given as a probability, the probability distribution itself is very uncertain.
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From page 12... ...
of Rasmussen's study asserted that it could not place a bound on the uncertainty of PRA, Rasmussen has argued that his estimate of core-melt probability might be in error by about a factor of 10 that is, the probability may be as high as 1 in 2,000 reactor-years or as low as 1 in 200,000 reactoryears. As we see, we can, after 1,500 reactor-years of operation without a core melt, say with about 50 percent confidence that Rasmussen's upper limit (1 in 2,000 reactor-years)
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From page 13... ...
SCIENCE AND ITS LlMlTS: THE REGU~OR'S DILEMMA 13 assertion rises to 95 percent. Our confidence in probabilistic risk analysis can eventually be tested against actual, observable experience.
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