Allied Health Services Avoiding Crises (1989) / Chapter Skim
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2 Approaches to Measuring Demand and Supply
2 Approaches to Measuring Demand and Supply
Pages 44-62
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From page 44... ...
2. "Each type of allied health personnel" As the charge implied and the committee clearly recognized, it is neither feasible nor useful to consider the needs and availability of allied health personnel collectively.
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From page 45... ...
"Needs," as used in the context of health personnel planning, refers to a normative idea of the number and type of personnel required to provide therapeutic and preventive services to a defined population. Need is usually defined independently of economic constraints.
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From page 46... ...
According to economic theory, if the labor market were functioning properly, a shortage could exist only temporarily because employers would pay more to attract more workers until all jobs were filled. Thus, economists view any labor shortage as reflecting either a lag in the adjustment of the labor supply to demand or an imperfection in the functioning of the labor market.
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From page 47... ...
Such signals include large numbers of job vacancies, rising compensation levels, and low unemployment levels. Vacancies The most commonly cited indicator of a labor shortage is job vacancies.
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From page 48... ...
Relative changes in compensation levels are better indicators of labor market conditions than are absolute changes. If the earnings of physical therapists are rising much faster than earnings in, for example, medical technology or teaching (fields that require similar educational investments)
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From page 49... ...
Qualitative assessments are often made in surveys of local employers by, for example, education administrators. Surveys by professional associations may include questions about their members' perceptions of the labor market in their communities.
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From page 50... ...
How to Improve Data on Current Allied Health Personnel Demand and Supply The balance between the current demand for and supply of allied health personnel is of concern to a wide range of organizations, to educators seeking jobs for their students, to facility administrators who are unsure about the availability of needed personnel, and to allied health practitioners and the associations that represent them, all of whom are concerned about jobs, compensation, and career prospects. In functional terms an assessment of current personnel demand and supply is the essential baseline data point from which projections start.
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From page 51... ...
Additional data collection activities should be undertaken only after a careful consideration of the benefits of such efforts and of ways to minimize the burden of undertaking them. The data to assess current labor market conditions are more readily available for other health care professions such as physicians and nursesthan for allied health fields.
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From page 52... ...
Several approaches are possible to assess future needs and requirements for allied health personnel. Some of the approaches that have been used for other types of health manpower fields are described below to illustrate the available assessment options, the ways they can be used, and the types of data that are needed for their use.
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From page 53... ...
Most simply, current health care personnel-to-population ratios are applied to population projections. The Bureau of Health Professions of the Department of Health and Human Services uses this method to project physician requirements by starting with current utilization levels and then adjusting for projected changes in population, trends in health insurance benefits, and other factors that affect utilization such as the cost of health care services.
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From page 54... ...
The committee chose to rely heavily on the BLS employment projections for its assessment of future demand. The principal reasons for this reliance were the following: ~ The BLS projections are grounded in projections of the entire economy, which include projections of the work force and levels of economic activity.
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From page 55... ...
The projected labor force participation rates are applied to the corresponding population projections to arrive at the projected labor force in the target year. Next, BLS uses a macroeconomic model to develop projections of the gross national product (GNP)
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From page 56... ...
State and local spending on education ($ billions) Size of the civilian labor force (millions)
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From page 57... ...
. tec nnlclans 1986 Employment Lowa Projected Employment for the Year 2000 Moderateb Highc 238 87 40 r ~ Dental hygienists Dietitians Emergency medical technicians Medical record technicians 40 Nuclear medical technologists 10 Occupational therapists Physical therapists Radiologic technologists and .
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From page 58... ...
The committee, where feasible, has projected the future supply of workers in allied health fields in the year 2000, assuming inflows to and outflows from the labor market remain as they were in 1986 and the number of allied health program graduates remains at the current level. These assumptions are unrealistic, but they are used to indicate the magnitude of change that must take place to meet future demand.
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From page 59... ...
To this, the committee has added its knowledge of how the fields are faring in current labor markets and the trends in the fields in numbers of graduates and programs to make an assessment of the future balance between demand and supply. DATA FOR PROJECTING THE FUTURE SUPPLY OF ALLIED HEALTH WORKERS Current (Base Year)
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From page 60... ...
These data include the allied health fields of occupational therapy, physical therapy, dental hygiene, medical record librarianship, medical laboratory technologies, radiologic technologies, and speech pathology and audiology. The Center for Education Statistics periodically makes projections of the total number of bachelor's degrees and the number of awards to men and women.
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From page 61... ...
The work of the Bureaus of Health Professions and Labor Statistics and the Center for Education Statistics is to be commended and should be built upon. To improve the data on allied health fields, the committee recommends that the secretary of health and human services convene an interagency task force composed of representatives from BLS, the Center for Education Statistics, and other agencies that collect relevant data on the allied health work force.
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From page 62... ...
Paper prepared for the Committee to Study the Role of Allied Health Personnel, Institute of Medicine. November.
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