Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals," Volume I (1986) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix A: Participation in Criminal Careers
Appendix A: Participation in Criminal Careers
Pages 211-291
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From page 211... ...
Roth INTRODUCTION This appendix is concerned with those who participate in criminal careers. More specifically, it reviews estimates of the fraction of the population that commits at least one crime during some observation penod.
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From page 212... ...
By using the diaries, it would be easy to measure the fraction participating in robbery, or the larger fraction participating in a broader category of crime, such as "FBI index offenses," or the still larger fraction CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS that has ever committed a nontragic offense. At the aggregate level, the participation fraction could be tabulated across subpopulations of interest.
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From page 213... ...
For example, subject to ethical constraints, knowledge of 2~3 patterns in participation could suggest strategies for designing community-based preventive programs that reduce criminal participation and for giving high-risk groups of children special priority in admissions to the programs. Similarly, if factors that distinguish offenders from nonoffenders, such as demographic characteristics, were found not to distinguish among offenders in terms of their frequency of serious offending, the effectiveness of criminal justice decisions about arrested offenders could be improved.
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From page 214... ...
But because those who refuse or leave may commit crimes of which the researcher is unaware, the numerator is also erroneously reduced, leaving the net effect on a' uncertain. CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS behavioral patterns of interest to the researcher and artifacts of the declining pop 1 ulation at risk of becoming a first offender.
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From page 215... ...
The next section draws on a variety of studies to develop ranges of estimates for cumulative participation by age 18, cumulative lifetime participation, and current participation. Then, based on other analyses in the same body of literature, the second section reviews findings concerning factors associated with participation.
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From page 216... ...
Gordon concluded that for some purposes a useful criterion of delinquency is the juvenile court record, and, using this definition, he estimated Bit at about 17 percent for white urban males (1976:27 2721. Scope of Literature Review In selecting studies for this review of criminal participation estimates, we used several criteria.
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From page 217... ...
. .m · OI participation in specluc serious crimes, such as robbery, burglary, and aggravated assault, or in official-record categories that included those crimes, such as "arrests for nontragic offenses," "juvenile court referrals," and "convictions for indictable offenses." This focus further restricted the scope of our literature review and eliminated self-report studies that tapped only participation in status offenses or minor delinquency, such as underage drinking, vandalism, and theft under $2 (e.g., Slocum and Stone, 1963; Akers, 1964; Gould, 1969; Hindelang, 1971; Waldo and Chiricos, 1972)
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From page 218... ...
We report criminal participation estimates from 10 major prospective longitudinal studies conducted in the United States, Great Brit ain, or Denmark. Analyses are typically per fon~led and interim results published be tween successive waves of data collection.
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From page 219... ...
or for eign studies that reported participation by age 18 for large birth cohorts representing an entire urban area, for samples represent ing some subpopulation of interest, or for smaller"high-risk" samples (see Table 1~. In all these studies, estimates were based on official records of criminal activity re corded police contact, arrest, juvenile court referral, or conviction and thus we report Bit.
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From page 220... ...
220 ao ~.
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From page 224... ...
Criminal participation among both male samples and the female sample was slightly lower than the estimates among black males and females in the Philadelphia cohorts, despite the narrower focus in Robins's study on juvenile court referrals. Another group tracked in a prospective longitudinal study is a group of 506 males born between 1925 and 1934 in Massachusetts and identified by school, church, or other agency as either "difficult" or "average" (McCord and McCord, 1959; McCord, 1978~.
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From page 225... ...
Monahan also reported substantial participation differentials by race: Bin, among black males exceeded Bit among white males by a ratio of about 3 to 1 in 1941 and by about 2.5 to 1 in 194~1954. Among females, black participation exceeded white participation by a ratio of about 4 to 1 in 1941 and 5 to 1 in 194~1954.
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From page 226... ...
With the combined data set, age-specific participation rates were computed separately for white and black males. Because they focused on only arrests for index offenses, their estimates of BE are smaller than those for males in the U.S.
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From page 227... ...
As part of a comparative study of 12 inner-London schools, data on teacher ratings of behavior, school performance, and criminal behavior were collected on 2,352 males and females. Criminal records were searched in 1978, when the sample was 17 years old, for information on all official police cautions or juvenile court convictions.
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From page 228... ...
In all these British studies, the ratio of male-to-female participation estimates appears greater than that in U.S. studies.
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From page 229... ...
With arrests for index offenses as the criterion, Blumstein and Graddy's (1982) estimates of BE are 14.6 for white males, 52.0 for black males, and 22.8 for all males.
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From page 231... ...
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From page 234... ...
Two other studies (Wadsworth, 1979; London Home Office, 1985) reported participation estimates by age 21, based on longitudinal studies of individuals.
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From page 235... ...
In reviewing studies that report participation estimates based on self-reports, we included only those estimates for serious crime types principally assault, auto theft, burglary, robbery, and grand theft (at least $50~. We tried to separate "joyriding" from auto theft and "fighting" from assault, but often the authors did not provide enough information (e.g., the exact wording)
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From page 236... ...
Most ofthem were excluded from this review because participation estimates were not derivable from the published reports. Five studies, however, reported participation estimates for serious crimes, which appear in Table 3.
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From page 238... ...
238 ~ 4, C o ~ _ ~ on o.
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From page 240... ...
Finally, Elliott and Huizinga (1984) reported data that permit computation of crime-specific cumulative participation, although annual current participation rates were originally collected from a five-wave panel design in the National Youth Survey (see Elliott et al., 1983~.
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From page 241... ...
The separate participation rates based on juvenile court referrals for males and females are 16.0 and 5.0, respectively, for a combined rate of 14.3. These estimates are consistent with Bin, in comparable samples (e.g., T
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From page 243... ...
243 nl ~n_ ~ ~o U
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From page 244... ...
When annualized, these current participation rates for all four crime types peaked at age 19. Also, at all ages, assault was the most common crime type, followed by grand theft; robbery and auto theft were relatively rare crimes.
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From page 245... ...
is 19.8 for white males,41.9 for black males, and 26.7 for all males. Variation within the range for white males seems largely explainable by differ 245 ences in level of criminal justice contact: for example, recorded police contact in the Philadelphia cohort studies (28.7, 22.7)
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From page 246... ...
Crime Type and Level of Involvement U.S. studies White Known to police or juvenile court 52.0 Nontraffic arrest or police contact Black 63.5 22.7, 28.7 41.8, 50.2 Juvenile arrest and/or court referral 13.1, 16.8, 17.9 Juvenile court conviction Arrest for index offense British studies Conviction or police caution, indictable offenses Conviction for indictable offense All Males 56.0 25.1, 32.8, 34.0, 34.9, 41.0, 44.1, 47.3 31.4, 37.8, 38.1, 43.1, 50.9 __ 8.2, 8.2, 8.9 26.0, 26.8, 26.9 17.1, 20~7, 25~0, 25.8 26.1, 27.5 12.3, 13.6, 17.9 14.6, 28.0, 29.0 12.3, 15.0, 15.9, 16.6, 17.0, 25.7 NOTE: See Table A-1 and related discussion for sources and further description of specific estimates.
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From page 247... ...
from multiple data bases. Surprisingly, no subsequent refinements of his estimates have been attempted for this broad domain of criminal activity despite (or perhaps because of his cautions about TABLE A-6 Official-Record Data on Male Lifetime Participation Rates (pL)
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From page 248... ...
are about 60 percent for all nontraffic crimes and one in four for all index crimes, which suggests that 60 to 80 percent of all criminal careers as measured by official records are initiated by age 18. SeZf-Report Estimates P~rhninat~on estimates based on selfreports of involvement in specific crime types are difficult to summarize.
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From page 249... ...
Studies linking the demographic attributes of age, sex, and race with participation rates have been conducted primarily because the data for such research were readily available from police records or interviewer observa tion scientific theory has not established a causal relationship between demographics and criminal participation. Several of the studies already discussed include analyses oftheoretically more inter esting correlates of participation, such as family influences, income and social class, and early antisocial behavior.
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From page 250... ...
c British studies (12) d Lifetime participation (BL)
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From page 251... ...
participation estimates in Table 7 that are based on official records generally estimate male participation rates at 3 to 5 times female rates, which is consistent with other research (Gordon, 1976:212; Hindelang, Hirschi, and Weis, 1979~. In fact, only 3 of the 13 U.S.
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From page 252... ...
for BL. When attention is restricted to only the more serious crimes, the ratio for BIS, is CRIMlNaL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS much higher: 3.3 and 2.9 in Philadelphia cohorts I and II, respectively, for all FBI index offenses.
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From page 253... ...
The relationship between age and the probability of committing an offense is best examined with age-specific current participation rates, d. Four studies reported this participation measure for specific crime types (see Table 4 and earlier discussion)
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From page 255... ...
(.1 -3.7) \/ 11 12 13 14 15 AGE 255 16 17 18 19 20 FIGURE A-1 Age and current participation rates for specific crime types for three cohorts.
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From page 256... ...
, family members criminal behavior, school performance and intelligence, early antisocial behavior, and other characteristics. We have limited this review to published reports from which estimates of overall participation can be derived (either based on official records or self-reports)
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From page 257... ...
Nevertheless, the literature summarized in Table 10-focusing only on studies that report participation ratesconstitutes an important part of the debate. Although disagreement exists over the nature of the relationship between social class and criminal participation, recent studies support the view that social class is generally not related to seZf-reported criminal behavior because this method of data collection primarily taps nonserious offenses, including vandalism, fighting, school infractions, and small thefts (e.g., Hindelang, Hirschi, and Weis, 1979; Clelland and Carter, 1980~.
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From page 259... ...
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From page 261... ...
261 + d' ao _ a)
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From page 262... ...
Only for aggravated assault and all index offenses was current participation consistently greatest among the lowest socioeconomic group. For breaking and entering, theft exceeding $50, and robbery, the group with the highest participation rates varier!
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From page 263... ...
also collected data on social class and selfreported participation, although participation rates were not reported. Using father's occupation as the measure of social class and a constructed index of involvement in serious offenses, they reported gamma between social class and participation for white males of only -.08, which is inconsistent with the results from Elliott et al.'s study.
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From page 264... ...
reported participation rates nearly twice as high among sons of"large" families as among sons of"o~er" families.9 Explanations for the correlation between 9"Large" family size and "other" were not explicitly defined in this study.
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From page 268... ...
McCord (1979) looked at the relationship CRIMINaL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS between family disruption and lifetime participation in her longitudinal study.
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From page 269... ...
Other researchers with the appropriate data should examine associations between various types of family disruptions and the selfreport and official-record measures of delinquency (e.g., Elliott et al., 1983; Rankin, 1983~. Other Family Influences Several of the studies reviewed here report strong empirical associations between participation and various aspects of behavior by family members that affects the sampled individuals, including parental behavior, parent-child relationships, and antisocial behavior by parents and grandpar effect on socially disadvantaged families than on families without social disadvantages (e.g., poor housing, large family, low income)
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From page 270... ...
270 o ~ o .,4 .,, en o ~ v .
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From page 271... ...
271 set U]
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From page 273... ...
Family Members' Criminal Behavior ~ ups; Butter and Giller, 1984: 18~188~. Six studies reviewed here present data on Thus, the findings in Table 12 relating the participation among offspring of criminal behavior of parents to participation in of- and noncriminal parents (Robins and fending by their offspring appear consistent Lewis, 1966; Robins, West, and Herjanic with the larger literature relating parental 1975; Farrington, 1983a; Hutchings and behavior to other measures of criminality Mednick, 1975; McCord, 1977; and among children.
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From page 275... ...
275 rat Cal .
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From page 277... ...
Mecinick, it is possible to contrast three pairs of participation rates: for adopted sons conditional on criminal activity of their biological and adoptecl-fathers and for nonadoptec] controls conditional on their natural fathers' criminality.
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From page 278... ...
. CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS be located.
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From page 279... ...
Nevertheless, the data presented in Table 14 are consistent with this larger literature and clearly show that indicators of early antisocial behavior are related to later criminal activity, as measured by official records. These results are summarized in Table 14.
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From page 280... ...
280 o ~ o s to o ~ .
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From page 281... ...
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From page 282... ...
Thus, this literature leaves unanswered the question of why the antisocial behavior patterns of many children and adolescents terminate short of officially recorded delinquency and adult arrest. School Performance and Intelligence Nine of the studies reviewed report that poor school performance and low intelligence are associated with higher participation.
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From page 284... ...
284 o ~ o .,' .,, s o .,, ~ ·rl P: a)
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From page 286... ...
For white males and females of both races, they CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS reported gamma statistics demonstrating the expected relationship. For black males, the associations were statistically insignificant and, for the general-knowledge measure, in the "wrong" direction.
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From page 287... ...
CONCLUSION Perhaps the most striking finding about criminal participation is the pervasiveness of involvement in serious crimes. The best available estimates suggest that 25~35 percent of urban males will be arrested for at least one index offense in their lives, and 15 percent will be arrested before reaching age 18.
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From page 290... ...
One relatively unexplored approach to improv ing predictive accuracy is the search for specific stressful events associated with the initiation of criminal careers, such as school failure or a family death. These events may alter base participation rates from the levels that would have been expected on the basis of demographic characteristics and other risk factors.
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From page 291... ...
With carefully designed samples, such data bases would be useful in resolving some contradictions be 29] tween the official-record and self-report participation literatures (especially those concerning the roles of race and social class)
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