Confronting AIDS Directions for Public Health, Health Care, and Research (1986) / Chapter Skim
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3. The Future Course of the Epidemic and Available National Resources
3. The Future Course of the Epidemic and Available National Resources
Pages 85-94
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From page 85... ...
Chapter 6 identifies epidemiologic and other areas of research that must be pursued so that better predictions can be made.) PROJECTIONS BY THE PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE Following a June 1986 planning conference at Coolfont, Berkeley Springs, West Virginia, the Public Health Service (PHS)
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From page 86... ...
Also, by assessing the limits of such models, the data that need to be collected can be identified. The PHS estimates of the incidence of AIDS were derived from an empirical model based on a statistical trend analysis of AIDS cases reported to the CDC through May 1986 (Morgan and Curran, 1986~.
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From page 87... ...
The proportion of infected persons who will develop AIDS or ARC is not yet known, nor is the time frame for the occurrence of these conditions. Thus, estimates useful in health care planning, such as hospital days required for treatment or days of work lost, are very difficult to derive.
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From page 88... ...
If changes in the natural history of the epidemic or improvements in medical care result in prolongation of life for AIDS patients, the prevalence of the disease would rise even faster than the incidence. The prevalence of disease is an indicator of the number of AIDS patients that will be alive and in need of health care.
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From page 89... ...
The total number of IV drug users in the United States is not known, and persons move in and out of the group rather frequently. Although evidence indicates that there has been some modification of behavior in response to the AIDS epidemic, behavioral modification is much less pervasive in this high-risk group than among male homosexuals (see Chapter 4~.
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From page 90... ...
In the United States, where such amplification will generally not be present, it is presumed that heterosexual spread will be slower. However, IV drug use in some communities or groups may amplify sexual transmission.
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From page 91... ...
These cases are expected initially to occur mainly in the geographic areas and among the demographic groups that already have a high frequency of AIDS or IV drug abuse. In addition, increased HIV infection in infants is expected as more women in their childbearing years become infected, but this may be moderated by screening, as discussed in Chapter 4.
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From page 92... ...
Because no vaccine is likely to become available in the near future (see Chapter 6) and because of the seriousness of the disease, the only prudent course of action is an immediate, major effort to stop the further spread of infection through public health measures, particularly education.
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From page 93... ...
Other groups, such as the military and the Department of Education, are also well situated to conduct certain types of epidemiologic or clinical research. No individual in the Public Health Service currently has primary responsibility for identifying priorities in implementing the PHS plan, but a Public Health Service AIDS Task Force has been established and a coordinator appointed.
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From page 94... ...
No formal mechanisms exist for ensuring efficient collaboration in these areas. Certain task forces under the AIDS coordinator of the Public Health Service have responsibility for monitoring efforts conducted by the PHS agencies with their purview.
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