The Medical Implications of Nuclear War (1986) / Chapter Skim
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4 Nuclear Famine: The Indirect Effects of Nuclear War
4 Nuclear Famine: The Indirect Effects of Nuclear War
Pages 117-135
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From page 117... ...
We on the biological side did not have the luxury of existing funded laboratory and modeling research projects on the consequences of nuclear war; instead, our mission was to inspect the current information, models, and understanding of how biological systems respond to stress. From these data and models, developed for reasons far removed from considerations of nuclear war, we synthesized a portrait of the global world after nuclear war (Harwell and Hutchinson, l9SS)
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From page 118... ...
There was an emphasis on the effects from climatic disturbances, discussed in detail below, but other mechanisms for indirect effects were examined, including, in particular, effects from ionizing radiation and from increased levels of ultraviolet light. The climatic stresses were categorized with respect to the types of biological issues of importance.
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From page 119... ...
Computer simulation models of ecological and agricultural systems were used for assessing the effects of chronic alterations in climate on crop yields and ecosystem productivity. And the judgment of scientists with expertise in specific agricultural and ecological systems was relied on to identify and evaluate available data and models and to extrapolate beyond the current experimental and historical records to obtain the best estimates of biological system responses to nuclear war.
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From page 120... ...
At each conference, as broad a consensus as possible was sought among the experts, TABLE 2 Biome Approach to the Ecological Evaluations Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems Arctic and boreal Deciduous forests Coniferous forests Grasslands Arid and semiarid Northern Hemisphere aquatic ecosystems Freshwater Marine Estuarine Tropical ecosystems Evergreen rainforests Deciduous forests Montane-cloud forests Alpine Grasslands and savannahs Mangroves Southern Hemisphere extratropical ecosystems Australian ecosystems New Zealand ecosystems Southern Ocean and Antarctica
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From page 121... ...
121 a' ex .
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From page 122... ...
Other analyses addressed the prospects for recovery for various ecosystems and the processes by which recovery could be affected. The consensus was that nuclear war-induced disturbances to the environment would include virtually every environmental problem of concern todayhabitat destruction, species extinction, air pollutants, toxic chemicals, acid precipitation, ozone depletion only on a scale of totally unprecedented
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From page 123... ...
Thus, the carrying capacity of natural ecosystems is greatly exceeded by the current human population, and disruptions in human support systems that would force humans to rely substantially on natural systems for sustenance would necessarily lead to reductions in the human population. This fact provides the overriding incentive to examine the vulnerability of agricultural and food distribution systems to disruptions following a nuclear war.
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From page 124... ...
124 Cat w ._ o o so Cut A At: A: o w o at: U
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From page 125... ...
125 o ~ o ~ o ~ o o ~ o o ~ o o ~ o ~ o ho S ° S ° ~ ° ho ~ ~ I ~ ~ 'd · ° S 8 S ° S 8 3 o c y E ~ E g E ~ D o O ~ ~ ~ ~ j y ~ D ,~ Y 8 8 8 o s 0 s 8 s 8 - 2 i ~ ~ C C)
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From page 126... ...
Several lines of evidence indicate that in the Northern Hemisphere continental regions of the mid-latitudes (i.e., the main grain-producing areas) , on average, a 1°C reduction in average temperature correlates to a 10-day reduction in the growing season length.
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From page 127... ...
These can result from reduced temperatures, reduced light levels, and reduced precipitation levels. As an example of the latter, the historical record and computer simulations indicated that wheat yields in Australia are essentially linearly reduced with reductions in rainfall; i.e., a 25 percent reduction in precipitation could be expected to result in at least a 25 percent reduction in yields.
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From page 128... ...
of spring wheat production illustrates the potential effects of chronic climatic alterations on crop production following a nuclear war (Figure 4~. A map of the wheat-producing provinces of western Canada shows Me current boundaries for wheat production and the boundaries associated with a reduction in temperatures over the growing season on average by 1°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 5°C.
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From page 129... ...
129 \ ° : ~ o an _~ l em_ At: y _~__=51 I
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From page 130... ...
The historical evidence of rice production in Japan adds considerable support to the conclusion that rice is extremely sensitive to temperature; for example, when average summer temperatures are reduced in Japan by 1°C-2°C, crop failure occurs. From these and many other analyses and considerations, the strong consensus that emerged among the agricultural scientists associated with ENUWAR is that the acute phase of climatic disturbances could eliminate grain production in the Northern Hemisphere following a large-scale nuclear war that occurred in the spring or summer and perhaps at other times of the year.
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From page 131... ...
grain stores in combatant countries were assumed to be destroyed approximately in proportion to the loss of human life from direct effects of nuclear detonations, and (5) within each country, food distribution was assumed to work perfectly, such that each person would receive exactly the minimal amount needed for survival; furthermore, if it was found that there would be insufficient food to keep the full population in the country alive for 1 year, Den the maximum numbers of people that could be maintained were assumed to consume all the food stores, and no food was assumed to be eaten at all by those eventually doomed to starvation.
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From page 132... ...
Starvation, and the diseases and societal disruptions associated with starvation, would account for global declines in the human population. An indication of the extreme vulnerability of the Earn s human population to sole reliance on food stores is seen in Figures Sa-c.
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From page 133... ...
B: Current population in comparison with how many people could be kept alive for one year if food stores were at their median level at the time of nuclear war.
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From page 134... ...
CONCLUSION The indirect effects of a nuclear war, especially as mediated by disruption in food availability, could be much more extensive than the direct effects. Furthermore, this risk is especially severe for noncombatant countries- for the 4 billion or so humans expected to survive the immediate period after a nuclear war relatively physically unharmed.
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From page 135... ...
1985. Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War.
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