The Medical Implications of Nuclear War (1986) / Chapter Skim
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15 Expected Incidence of Cancer Following Nuclear War
15 Expected Incidence of Cancer Following Nuclear War
Pages 329-336
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From page 329... ...
Data on cancer incidence in populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki obtained during checkups of survivors of A-bombs, from analysis of case histories, and from pathological certificates allow one to draw objective conclusions on the cancer rate induced by radiation. The following results were obtained.~-3 An increase in leukemia incidence began in both cities about 3 years after exposure and reached a peak around 1951-1952.
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From page 330... ...
Analyses of mortality have shown a significant excess of deaths from malignant solid tumors. The relative risk for various malignant tumors to be induced by radiation (2 versus 0 Gy)
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From page 331... ...
The magnitude of the radiation effect varies by site. The excess risk of radiogenic breast cancer begins at ages when cancer rates normally become appreciable, and after 5-10 years among persons already at or near ages of appreciable cancer risk when exposed.
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From page 332... ...
After attenuation for death from acute symptoms, the assumptions yield a 43 percent total survival rate. A reduction factor of 0.55 has been applied to convert average surface exposure to average organ dose.
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From page 333... ...
Table 2 indicates that cancer mortality owing to local fallout would be greatly increased among the survivors of a nuclear war.3 The increased risk of cancer would be far from being the most horrible consequence of the disaster. Depending on the risk model used and the method of projection beyond the 30 years of present follow-up, the excess mortality would be around 5 percent, or 17 percent of the normal cancer burden.
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From page 334... ...
Chazov and colleagues4 presented the estimates of late radiation consequences for the population in the form of the expected incidence of malignant tumors developed in various organs and tissues with a fatal outcome. As one can see from Table 3, local radioactive fallout can give rise to malignant tumors induced by ionizing radiation that is expected to kill 21 million; of these, approximately 3 million will die of leukemia, 3.6 million of mammary gland cancer, and more than 4.6 million of thyroid gland cancer.
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From page 335... ...
conditions this is then at variance with the usual definition of effective dose, which refers to the induction of fatal cancer. In summary, a general nuclear war would presumably expose populations of industrial and densely populated areas around the world to levels not less than 1.0 Gy.3 The rest of the world would be exposed to delayed fallout.
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From page 336... ...
Geneva: World Health Organization. 4Chazov, Y
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