Measurement and Interpretation of Productivity (1979) / Chapter Skim
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Revisions in BLS Output per Hour
Revisions in BLS Output per Hour
Pages 239-254
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From page 239... ...
The reliability of productivity ratios depends in part on early estimates of real GNP, which are modified to form the output estimate of the productivity ratio for the private business sector (see Chapter 4, Table 4-21. The studies by Young (1974)
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From page 240... ...
It is recommended that the BUS extend this revision analysis and consider publication of the range of past revisions in its quarterly press releases. REASONS FOR FREQUENT REVISIONS The basic procedure for preparing preliminary quarterly estimates is to extrapolate from trends in past quarters with the data that are available
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From page 241... ...
The last time quarterly estimates are revised is where census quinquennial data sources are incorporated, because a new benchmark affects annual estimates.3 ~ BEA refers to this revision as the 45-day estimate. 2 In response to a recommendation of the GNP Data Improvement Committee the BEA has begun to publish an estimate 75 days after the reference quarter.
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From page 242... ...
A preliminary quarterly estimate of total hours or employment is made up of three monthly estimates: the first month of the quarter is a final estimate, the second month is a first monthly revision, and the third month is a preliminary estimate. Quarterly revisions are then based on the monthly revisions.
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From page 243... ...
The first July estimate is important because it incorporates annual data sources on output and sometimes the employment benchmark.7 The latest revised estimate is, by the assumption that revisions reduce error, the "best" estimate available. In March 1976, BES changed the scope of its broadest productivity measure from the total private economy to the private business sector.
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From page 245... ...
~ - ~ oo ~ - ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ .
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From page 246... ...
246 PAPERS TABLE 2 Preliminary and Revised Figures for Changes in Quarterly Output per Hour for Total Private Economy or Private Business Sector, 1968-1977 (percent changes from previous quarter at annual rate) First First Latest Monthly July Revised Quarter Preliminary Revision Revision Estimate Total Private Economy 1968 I II III IV 1969 I II III IV 1970 I II III IV 1971 I II III IV 1972 II III IV 1973 1 II III IV 1974 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 2.0 -0.6 3.1 4.6 0.5 5.3 1.7 4.3 3.5 2.1 6.0 3.7 5.3 4.7 -0.2 1.6 -1.3 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.8 1.6 -0.6 3.1 4.3 0.1 6.1 2.1 5.1 3.4 2.3 6.0 4.1 4.7 4.0 -0.7 1.9 -0.~8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.9 -0.5 -1.1 1.6 0.8 -2.3 3.2 5.6 0.6 6.5 2.0 3.8 4.1 2.1 6.5 3.1 5.2 6.5 -1.6 -1.5 0.0 5.0 2.5 4.1 0.0 0.6 -1.1 -0.6 -1.1 1.8 1.8 6.6 -2.8 8.4 -0.4 5.8 0.0 4.6 3.4 2.2 6.0 5.1 -3.7 -0.8 0.2 I-5.5- 6.4- 7.6- 5.2 II0.81.40.1- 1 .4 III0.81.40.1- 1.9 IV-5.1- 5.0- 5.1- 1.1 1975 I0.6- 0.21.61.4 II2.04.3NA10.0 III9.511.0NA8.0 IV1.00.6NA-2.0
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From page 247... ...
Total private economy excludes from GNP both output and hours of general government. The private business sector excludes from the total private economy both output and hours associated with rest-oi:-the-world sector, the domestic and not-for-profit sectors, and owner-occupied housing.
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From page 248... ...
in m Cal o Ct ~_ o 5o S~ ~_ ._ ~0 Ct _ C~ _ ._ ~ O S~ ~ ~_ ~ S~ b~o ~ ,¢ O' ~ O V' Ce · ·- 1 C~ ._ ~ ~ ~n ._ ~ Ct ~ V, .s O ._ C~ ~ ·- ~V ~; V)
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From page 249... ...
On the basis of past revisions in productivity measures, this measure indicates that one can expect on average for the absolute amount of revision to be about 1.8 percentage points regardless of sign. This is a considerable revision: it amounts to about 65 percent of the average of the latest revised estimates for the preliminary and first monthly estimates and narrows to around 50 percent for the first July estimates.
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From page 251... ...
The first July revision performs somewhat better, with a success rate of 63 percent. COMPARISONS WITH PREVIOUS STUDIES There are no other studies on revision error in productivity measures to compare with the results here, but there have been studies of revision error in quarterly GNP statistics that can be compared with the results in the output columns of Table 3.
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From page 252... ...
49~. If revisions in GNP are as large as for total private economy/ private business sector output for 1968-1977 and if benchmarks continue to result in substantial revisions, the early estimates of quarterly GNP since the mid-1960s may be getting less reliable.
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From page 253... ...
The BES publishes the initial and revised annual estimates, but these do not inform the user about the reliability of the quarterly estimates. The BEA has developed a revision page for its press release that gives the probable size of revisions in quarterly GNP based on past revisions (however, it uses the first July revision as a standard of comparison)
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From page 254... ...
(1958) A statistical analysis of provisional estimates of gross national product and its components, of selected national income components, and of personal savings.
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