Shopping for Safety: Providing Customer Automotive Safety Information Providing Consumer Automotive Safety Information -- Special Report 248 (1996) / Chapter Skim
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mm 0.1flMR(O-7 w9mmlo, SPECIAL REPORT 248 inr u Iffaffmidw TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 1996 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE Cliairman:,James W vari Loben Sels, Director, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento Vice Chairman: David N
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SPECIAL REPORT 248 Shoppingfor Safety Providing Consumer Automotive Safety Information Committee for Study of Consumer Automotive Safety Information TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD' National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C.
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD SPECIAL REPORT 248 Subscriber Category IVB safety and human performance Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering directly from TRB. They may also be obtained on a regular basis through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB; affiliates or library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts.
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COMMITTEE FOR STUDY OF CONSUMER AUTOMOTIVE SAFETY INFORMATION M GRANGER MORGAN, Chairman, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania ANN BOSTROM, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta THOMAS D
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PREFACE Mindful of growing consumer interest in motor vehicle safety features and the federal role in providing consumer automotive safety information, Congress requested an independent study of consumer information needs by the National Academy of Sciences. The Conference Committee Report authorizing the study recognized that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NT-ITSA)
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vi • PREFACE Carnegie-Mellon University. The committee includes experts in motor vehicle and highway safety, highway safety data, consumer education and information, risk communication, information regulation and public policy, product evaluation, and product development and manufacturing.
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CONTENTS Executive Summary . 1 Introduction and Overview ..............................10 Legislative Context and Scope of Study 11 What Is Vehicle Safety?
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4 Consumer DecisionMaking, Information Needs, and Communication Strategies ........................76 Framework for Understanding Major Product Purchase Decisions 76 Automobile Purchase Decisions and the Importance of Vehicle Safety Information 80 Structuring and Communicating Vehicle Safety Information 88 Research Needs 99 5 Developing and Communicating New Measures ofSafety ...........................................110 Attributes of Good Summary Measures 110 Designing Effective Communications 113 Content of Communications 116 Getting the Message Out 124 6 Organizational Arrangements ..........................127 Organizational Objectives 127 Institutional Concept and Functions 128 Organizational Options 129 Implementation Strategy and Next Steps 138 Benefits of Consumer Vehicle Safety Information 139 Appendix A Workshop Agenda and Speakers, June 21,1995......143 Appendix B Congressional Requests for Consumer Automotive Safety Information Study, 1994 .................147 Appendix C Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards for Passenger Cars and Light Truck Vehicles ...................149 Appendix D Interview Protocol and Questionnaire ...........154 Study Committee Biographical Information ...................157
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this study is to examine consumer needs for automotive safety information and the most cost-effective and meaningful methods of communicating this information. Current programs and the need for a process to support continuing improvement of consumer vehicle safety information and thereby provide additional incentives for manufacturers to enhance vehicle safety are addressed.
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2 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY they provide protection from harm during a crash (crashworthiness)
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • 3 consumer-oriented publications. Thus, some information on vehicle safety is available to help consumers comparison shop.
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4 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY mation in making automobile purchase decisions. Research should be conducted on what people know and believe about automobile safety and how they think about safety in selecting among different types of vehicles as an important step in developing improved consumer automotive safety information.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • 5 Considerable information about vehicle safety characteristics and features is available to consumers, but it is not always timely, accessible, or in a form that readily supports comparison shopping. Several steps could be taken in the short term to address these limitations (see recommendations)
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6 SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Improvements to Existing Information In the short term, the following measures would improve the automotive safety information available to consumers: Consumers could be provided with more explicit information on -- The importance of vehicle size and weight in crash outcomes, -- The benefits of proper use of vehicle safety features such as occupant restraint systems and antilock brakes, -- The frequency of crash types for which crash test results are available, and -- The uncertainties associated with crash test results. The reliability of crash test results should be established and the sources of variance identified.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • 7 accomplished through a hierarchically organized approach. The most highly summarized information should be provided on a vehicle label that includes a simple graphical display of comparative crashworthiness performance and a checklist of crash avoidance features.
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8 . SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Development of a Process To Stimulate Better Consumer Safety Information and Safer Cars Finally, there are a number of organizational considerations that must be addressed in any effort to develop the measures outlined.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • 9 BENEFITS OF CONSUMER AuTOMoTIvE SAFETY INFORMATION A program to improve consumer vehicle safety information would have many benefits. Meaningful comparative information that is widely accessible and easy to obtain and use can provide a powerful market stimulus influencing consumer choice and manufacturer design of safer vehicles, ultimately reducing the number of fatalities and injuries.
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IL INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of accidental death and a major cause of imintentional injury in the United States. They burden society with nearly $140 billion in annual economic losses alone (NHTSA 1995, i)
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INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW. 11 request that prompted the study asks for an evaluation of "the validity of current programs, public and private, in providing accurate information to consumers on the real-world safety of vehicles, the possibility of improving the system in a cost-effective and realistic maimer, and the best methods of providing useful information to consumers" (Appendix B)
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12 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY More recently, as part of a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on rollover prevention (Federal Register 1994) , NHTSA proposed a new consumer safety information requirement -- a safety label on all passenger vehicles providing comparative information on their resistance to rollover.3 Both the automobile industry and safety advocacy groups raised issues concerning the proposed measures of and the presentation of information about vehicle rollover propensity.4 The desirabffity of the safety label itself is an issue.
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INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW • 13 WHAT is VEHICLE SAFETY? One of the difficulties of providing vehicle safety information in a simplified format for consumers is defining what is meant by vehicle safety.
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14 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY more external energy-absorbing structures, do a better job of preventing intrusion into the occupant compartment and increasing the time the crash forces take to reach the occupants (O'Neffl 1995, 4, 6-7)
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INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW • 15 appropriate driving behavior was the major contributing factor in 60 to 90 percent of motor vehicle crashes. Environmental factors (e.g., weather, road conditions, signing, and lighting)
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INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW • 17 Federal vehicle safety standards also provide a source of comparalive information about vehicle safety features and performance that can be adapted for consumer information purposes. information is or soon will be available for a wide variety of vehicle safety characteristics and features, much of which is derived from vehicle regulatory requirements.
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18 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY cates that most drivers rank their own driving skills and safe driving practices as better than average (Evans 1991, 322-324; Williams et al. 1995, 119; Svenson 1981, 146)
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INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW • 19 mation? There are four good reasons.
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20 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY NOTES Economic costs include medical costs, present and future discounted earnings losses, legal and court costs, coroner or medical examiner costs, emergency services, insurance administrative expenses, and delay costs caused by the crash (NHTSA and FI-IWA 1991, 31)
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INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW • 21 columns.) Other researchers such as Crandall et al.
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22 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration TRB Transportation Research Board AAMA.
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INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW • 23 NHTSA and FHWA.
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2 CURRENT UNDERSTANDING OF MOTOR VEHICLE CRASH AVOIDANCE AND CRASHWORTHINESS Te characteristics and features of a motor vehicle that affect its safety can be classified into two broad categories: those helping the driver avoid a crash (crash avoidance) and those helping to protect vehicle occupants from harm during a crash (crashworthiness)
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AVOIDANCE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 25 perience with the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) , whose primary purpose is to provide consumers with information on the relative crashworthiness of passenger vehicles as measured in fall-frontal crash tests.
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26 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Biomechanics Research Research in biomechanics (the study of injury mechanisms and human tolerances to trauma) provides the basic knowledge to support the development of testing devices and, from these, performance standards for testing vehicle crashworthiness.4 To understand how injuries are sustained and how to prevent or minimize the severity of such injuries in crashes, biomechanical engineers examine the mechanism of a particular injury associated with a given type of impact and how a body region responds to that impact.
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AVOIDANCE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 27 way crashes. NIE-ITSA has developed the primary traffic accident data bases.
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28 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY interested in the safety of motor vehicles as they are operated in the real world. Crash data for specific makes and models of vehicles can provide this type of information.
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AvoIDANcE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 29 CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE FROM AVAILABLE'DATA Vehicle characteristics and safety features affect the likelihood of being in a crash as well as the crashworthiness of the vehicle once a crash has occurred. However, the relationship between vehicle characteristics and crash likelihood is not as well understood.
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30 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY these technology improvements have indicated only modest differences in crash likelihood. For example, antilock brakes have not provided as large a safety benefit as predicted.12 One reason may be the small number of circumstances in which antilock brakes can help; fewer crashes involve loss of control that could be prevented with antilock brakes than were supposed (ifi-IS 1995a, 4,5)
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AvoIDANcE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 31 and Frick 1993, 215) , when two cars whose masses differ by a factor of 2 crash into each other, the driver of the lighter car is 12 times as likely to be killed as the driver of the heavier car (Figure 2-1)
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10 R = /L353 I 25 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 f.1 = Mass of the heavier car Mass of the lighter car R = Driver fatality in the lighter car Driver fatality in the heavier car FIGURE 2-1 The ratio, R, of driver fatalities in the lighter car to driver fatalities in the heavier car versus the ratio, p, of the mass of the heavier car to the mass of the lighter car for frontal crashes, 1975-1989 FARS data. Modified and reprinted from Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.
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Small Cars _____ 279 wheelbase less than 95 in 214 418 wheelbase 95-9911!
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34 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY PERCENT VEHICLE INVOLVEMENT IN FATAL AND INJURY CRASHES 60 51 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 25 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 15 9 [! 1 Frontal Side Rollover Rear IMPACT DIRECTION FIGURE 2-3 Incidence of vehicle involvement in crashes by crash type and severity, 1990-1993 average (data compiled by NHTSA from NASS-CDS ifie)
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AvoIDANcE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 35 PERCENT VEHICLE INVOLVEMENT IN FATAL AND INJURY CRASHES Due 50 40 30 20 10 Frontal Rollover Frontal Rollover Side Rear Side Rear IMPACT DIRECTION FIGURE 2-4 Incidence of vehicle involvement in crashes by crash type, severity, and vehicle type, 1990-1993 average (data compiled by NHTSA from NASS-CDS file)
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36 SHOPPING FOR SAFETY PERCENT VEHICLE OCCUPANTS KILLED OR INJURED I TIIJI1ll1JJ.I 134 ' I = 1 1 Hi 111111111 ' -- -liii Iii Frontal Rollover Frontal Rollover Side Rear Side Rear IMPACT DIRECTION FIGURE 2-5 Outcome of crashes by crash type and severity level, 1990-1993 average (data compiled by NHTSA from NASS-CDS ifie)
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INCIDENCE OF VEHICLE INVOLVEMENT IN FATAL AND INJURY FRONTAL CRASHES Frontal 51% Multiple vehicle -- -- ,- All other \n 49% - Single vehicle 25% FATALITY OUTCOMES OF VEHICLES INVOLVED IN FRONTAL CRASHES Largi Midsizi Small Large Small Lai Medi! Sn Large Utility Midslze Utility Small Utility Van Large Pickup Small Pickup Large Car Medium Car Small Car 0 1 2 3 4 5 Vehicle Occupant Fatalities Per Year (Thousands)
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38 . SHOPPING FOR SAFETY the pie charts in Figures 2-6, 2-8, 2-9, and 2-10 are given in Table 2-1.)
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AvOIDANcE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 39 ers to provide the highest level of safety they can within each size class (personal communication, James Hackney, Office of Market Incentives, NHTSA, Aug.
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40 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY standards. For example, crash dumniies are being modified so that lower extremity injuries can be studied.
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AVOIDANCE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 41 (Kahane 1994) found a statistically significant difference in fatality likelihood between belted drivers of cars that received good and poor scores as rated by NCAP either by a single injury criterion (e.g., head injury)
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INCIDENCE OF VEHICLE INVOLVEMENT IN FATAL AND INJURY SIDE-IMPACT CRASHES All oth 75% Multiple - - .•:. -' vehicle 84% .
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44 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY ately high share of vehicle occupant fatalities relative to the occurrence of this crash type (Figures 2-3 and 2-5)
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INCIDENCE OF VEHICLE INVOLVEMENT IN FATAL AND INJURY ROLLOVER CRASHES Rollovers i\ 15% FATALITY OUTCOMES OF VEHICLES INVOLVED IN ROLLOVER CRASHES Large Utility Large Utility Midsize Utility Midsize Utilityl___________________________ Small Utility Small Utility l________ Van Vast I Large Pickup Large Pickup Small Pickup Small Pickup Large Car Large Car Medium Car Medium Car Small Car_________________ - Small Car 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 50 100 150 200 Vehicle Occupant Fatalities Per Year (Thouaarrds) Occupant Fatatitiea Per Million Vehlclea FIGURE 2-9 Rollover crash statistics, 1990-1993 average (data on vehicle involvement in crashes compiled by NHTSA from NASS-CDS file; data on fatality outcomes compiled by Highway Loss Data Institute from FARS and R.L.
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Large U Mizaize U Small U Large Ph Small Pk Large Medium 46 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY consumers about the crashworthiness of passenger vehicles in rollover crashes is premature. Rear-Impact Crashes Vehicles involved in rear-impact crashes account for the smallest fraction (9 percent)
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH Av0IDAI'lcE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 47 vehicle fender bender, which does not result in life-threatening injuries. Rear-impact collisions predominantly involve passenger cars in multiple-vehicle crashes (Figure 2-10)
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48 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY crash speeds and configurations even for frontal crashes. Knowledge about potential variance in crash test scores is insufficient, which calls into question the repeatability of test results.
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AvOIDANcE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 49 vehicle-related factors that affect crash outcomes, such as vehicle size and weight, and of design features, such as energy absorption, that can reduce injury potential. There is also considerable experience with frontal crash test results that offer some modest correlation with realworld crash experience.
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50 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Council et aL, information about vehicle weight and size could be substituted for the done data if dones for a particular new make or model vehicle are not available. Congressman Wirth's petition, which proposed a specific minimum static stability factor among other requests, was denied because the approach was considered too narrow and inappropriate (NHTSA 1992, 5-6)
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AvOIDANcE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 51 eral Motors R&D Center, Dec.
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52 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY On the basis of the same NASS-CDS data for 1990 through 1993,21 percent of vehicles involved in frontal crashes resulting in fatalities and injuries are classified as being in frontal offset crashes. Deformable barriers were selected because they provide a reasonable approximation of how cars actually perform in offset crashes (HI-IS 1994, 6)
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AVOIDANCE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 53 way (personal communication, Albert King, Wayne State University Bioengineering Center, Sept.
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54 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Evans, L., and M.C. Frick.
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UNDERSTANDING OF CRASH AvOIDANcE AND CRASHWORTHINESS • 55 McElhaney, J.H., and B.S. Myers.
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3 CURRENTLY AVAILABLE CONSUMER AUTOMOTIVE SAFETY INFORMATION Considerable information about vehicle safety characteristics and features is available to consumers, but not always in a comparable or readily accessible form. An overview of the key sources of vehicle safety information and dissemination outlets through which information is currently made available to consumers is provided in this chapter.
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION • 57 TABLE 3-1 PRIMARY SOURCES OF COMPARATIVE VEHICLE SAFETY INFORMATION INFORMATION TYPE OF RATING CATEGORIES! SOURCE INFORMATION CoMp&IusoNs NHTSA Frontal crash test Five stars/within vehicle (NCAP)
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58 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY size, four-door cars for model year 1995 was compared and given an overall score on a four-point scale.2 IIHS and the associated Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) also provide comparative data on the outcomes of vehicle crashes.
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION • 59 several brochures providing consumers with information on such vehicle safety features as air bags and antilock brakes and on ways to prevent such crash types as rollovers. None of these publications, however, provide comparative vehicle safety information.
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Medium car Buick Century T his dated design is seriously outclassed by the competition. Its sos' notable virtue is a bolter-tItanaverage reliability record.
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION • 61 and structure. Various safety features are highlighted (dual air bags, side-impact protection, head and child restraints)
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TABLE 3-2 PRIMARY DISSEMINATION OUTLETS FOR CONSUMER VEHICLE SAFETY INFORMATION T'i'l'E OF DISSEMINATOR COMMUNICATION MODE FREQUENCY Point-of-Sale Information Automobile New car labela (list of safety Print N.A. manufacturers features)
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NHTSA Pamphlet: NCAP test results Print and electronic Periodic releases (through NHTSA hotline) throughout the year IIHS Booklet: Offset frontal crash test Print (publicized through Periodic results NBC Dateline)
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64 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY cations aspect of the program. In addition to regular press releases, the agency inaugurated a hotline in 1994 through which electronic or printed versions of the crash test results are made available.
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION • 65 head, chest, and upper leg injuries. Responding to focus groups calling for presentation of the crash test information "in a form that is nontechnical and as short and simple as possible," NI-ITSA developed a new star-rating format and inaugurated a hotline through which consumers could request the information (NHTSA 1993, 43, 58)
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION • 67 Large variances in individual test scores that underlie the ratings because of vehicle or test differences could render distinctions among the rating categories meaningless. A final set of concerns relates to the potential for the star ratings to mislead.
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68 SHOPPING FOR SAFETY steadily since the inception of the program, with the largest improvement in the early years. Most passenger cars now meet the lower [48-km/hr (30-mph)
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION .69 and front seat passenger, only one star below the highest rating. Yet realworld crash data indicate a driver death rate about 50 percent higher than for other vehicles in its class.
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70 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY is that, once the good is provided, the consumption of that good by one individual does not diminish its availability for consumption by others (Rosen 1995, 61)
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION • 71 comparative safety data to consumers. The cost of testing would be high relative to the benefits that any one company would receive and consumers might perceive the test results to be biased toward the cars sold by that company.
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72 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY crashworthiness data than are currently available, but expansion of crash testing is highly controversial. The manufacturers oppose any ex- pansion of crash testing until the reliab• •of the new test modes and correlation with real-world crashes are better understood (NHTSA 1995d, 18-20)
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION • 73 sessment of the relative safety of various vehicles in a form that serves their needs. Much more could be done to provide consumers with summary measures of overall vehicle safety that are easier to interpret and use in making purchase decisions.
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74 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY The reports also requested a study of the validity of the test data and the efficacy of allowing manufacturers to choose between "high-tech" and "low-tech" dummies for the purposes of NCAP testing (NHTSA 1993)
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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION • 75 Atman, C.J., A Bostrom, B
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CONSUMER DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES Designing a system that provides consumers with meaningful in formation about vehicle safety requires understanding how consumers think about automobile safety and how they search for and use information in making automobile purchase decisions. In the first section of this chapter a theoretical framework for understanding how consumers are likely to use information in making major product purchases is provided, and implications for the provision of automotive safety information are drawn.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COJvIMUNICATION • 77 Information Processing Theory of Consumer. Choice The nature of the decision problem, the context, the decision makers, and the available information together determine how and how much information is used in making a choice.
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78 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Decision Maker Attributes Common cognitive constraints and differences in experience and circumstances influence decision making. Consumers have limits on their ability to use information (Bettman et al.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 79 subsequent choices and the extent of information search for future purchases (Bettman 1979, 35)
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80 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY The way information is framed and presented affects how it is perceived (Fischhoff et al.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 81 purchases and safety information during the mid-1970s and early 1980s in response to its legislative mandate to provide consumer information.10 In response to a 1991 congressional request the agency conducted focus groups (S.W. Morris & Co.
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82 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY There is little comparable information about what U.S. consumers know and believe about vehicle safety.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 83 of car (e.g., compact, minivan) , then they select a specific make and model from within that class (111-25, ffl-32)
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 85 RANKING IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE 10 15 20 25 '87 '88 1 89 1 90 191 1 92 193 '94 YEAR Safety Features FIGURE 4-2 Changes in the relative importance of safety as a car purchase decision attribute (General Motors Corporation 1994)
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86 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY focus groups stated it more directly: "Safety is not going to be my prime concern because I know that by federal law there are certain features which must be on all vehicles. I trust those features" (S.W.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COIvIIvIUNICATION • 87 persons view the risks of various hazardous activities have indicated that motor vehicle crashes are perceived as a familiar, relatively controllable risk similar to risks from fireworks or motorcycles (Slovic 1987, 282)
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88 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Improvements in the presentation and availability of vehicle safety information could increase general consumer awareness and use of safety information at all stages of the purchase decision process. STRUCTURING AND COMMUNICATING VEHICLE SAFETY INFORMATION Presentation of Vehicle Safety Information Summary ratings, which reduce the complexity of processing information about multiple product attributes, can aid the consumer.
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Based on stendard US. Government tests Ref rtgerator-Fmezer XYZ Corporation With Automatic Defrost Model ABC-W With Side-Mounted Freezer Capacity: 23 Cubic Feet Without Through-the-Door-ice Service Compare the Energy Use of this Refdgerator with Otheis Before You Buy.
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FUEL ECONOMY LABELS The Federal Fuel Economy Information Program was implemented in 1975 under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. The program has two components -- fuel economy labels and a gas mileage guide.
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FUEL ECONOMY LABELS (continued) A second study was conducted by DOE in 1982 to examine ways to increase the effectiveness and reduce the costs of the Fuel Economy Information Program (Pirkey 1982; Pirkey et al.
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APPLIANCE ENERGY EFFICIENCY LABELS In December 1975 Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA)
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 95 APPLIANCE ENERGY EFFICIENCY LABELS (continued) ficiency information in purchase decisions increased over time (Dyer and Maronick 1988, 91)
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96 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY APPLIANCE ENERGY EFFICIENCY LABELS (continued) Like the appliance energy label, the automobile safety label will be an infonnational label that must not be too cognitively demanding on the consumer.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 97 ment as the source of the mileage ratings to assure consumers that the information is impartial and unbiased (Pirkey et al.
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98 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY cations. NHTSA's NCAP results have been treated this way.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 99 Summary Determining how best to structure and communicate vehicle safety information is a matter for research. Limited data based largely on NHTSA focus groups suggest that some consumers would find a standardized vehicle safety rating and an accompanying explanatory page or brochure the most effective method of presenting comparative vehicle safety information.
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100 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY been gathered primarily by the automobile manufacturers for marketing and advertising purposes. Little systematic information is available on what consumers believe or understand about vehicle safety, or how and when they think about safety in choosing a vehicle.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 101 liefs but are also hierarchically related by level of conceptual detail (e.g., vehicle, car, sedan) , with the most often used, or basic, concept categories (e.g., car)
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102 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY than as absolute magnitudes and that negative outcomes are counted more heavily than potential gains (Bettman et al. 1991, 65; Pious 1993, 95-101)
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 103 Product Recommendation and Information, which was being developed for General Motors Corporation, has not gone forward. The survey is sent to those who have purchased a vehicle in the past 3 months.
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104 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY summary of the key studies and findings on the information overload question is provided by Magat et al.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COIvIIvIUNICATION • 105 Adler, R.S., and R.D. Pittle.
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106 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Fischhoff, B., A Bostrom, and M.J.
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND COMMUNICATION • 107 Magat, W.A., and W.K. Viscusi.
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108 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Pirkey, D., B
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DECISION MAKING, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND CO! vIMLINICATION • 109 Williams, A.F., N.N.
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3 DEVELOPING AND COMMUNICATING NEW MEASURES OF SAFETY Consumers would benefit from predictive measures of the overall safety performance of new motor vehicles in comparing among purchase choices. Some consumers will also want an explanation of how such summary measures have been developed and more detailed disaggregated information and feature-by-feature comparisons.
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DEVELOPING AND COMMUNICATING NEW MEASURES OF SAFETY • 111 As indicated in Chapter 2, current knowledge can support the production of measures, particularly for crashworthiness, that have some correlation with actual safety performance. The most reliable predictions can probably be achieved through combining crash test results, statistical analysis of real-world crash outcomes, and expert engineering judgment.
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112 . SHOPPING FOR SAFETY 2, the variability of crash test results based on a single test per vehicle is an important issue.
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DEVELOPING AND COMMLINICATJNG NEW MEASURES OF SAFETY • 113 DESIGNING EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATIONS How consumers understand and interpret information depends on what they aheady know and believe. As explained in Chapter 4, very little research has been done to determine how people frame and think about issues of vehicle safety.
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114 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Alternative approaches to studying public understanding of risks differ from the mental models approach primarily in that they do not incorporate an explicit decision-making standard in the form of an expert model. For example, ethnographic interviews conducted by cognitive anthropologists on environmental risks have yielded results similar to those of the mental models approach (Kempton 1991; Kempton et al.
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From page 124... ...
DEVELOPING AND COIvIMUNICATING NEW MEASURES OF SAFETY • 115 LEVEL 1: VEHICLE SAFETY LABEL The vehicle safety label provides summary information on vehicle crash avoidance and vehicle crash performance. LEVEL 2: VEHICLE SAFETY BROCHURE The vehicle safety brochure, which is provided in the glove box, explains in modest detail the factors that contribute to crash I avoidance and crashworthiness, discusses how these were used to produce the summary measures for the vehicle in question, and might also provide some additional comparisons to other vehicles in the same class.
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From page 125... ...
116 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY lar classes of drivers)
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From page 126... ...
DEVELOPING AND COMMUNICATING NEW MEASURES OF SAFETY • 117 A single overall summary measure is a desirable long-term goal. However, the committee concludes that it is not currently feasible to produce a summary measure that combines both crash avoidance and crash performance information.
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From page 127... ...
118 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY to as decision analysis (Raiffa 1968; Keeney 1982; Von Winterfeldt and Edwards 1986; Watson and Buede 1987)
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From page 128... ...
DEVELOPING AND COMMUNICATING NEW MEASURES OF SMEn' • 119 form of the algorithm to be used and the values of various weighting coefficients on the basis of factors such as statistical data on the frequency of various crash types. Third, a number of engineered features (e.g., structure of the occupant compartment, presence of special energy-absorbing components)
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From page 129... ...
120 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY form of graphical display should be used that allows consumers to compare the crashworthiness (and in the future, the crash avoidance poten- tial) of a specific vehicle with all new vehicles on the market as well as with other vehicles in the same class.
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From page 130... ...
Auto safety Automobile accidents are the most Important cause of accidental death In America. No matter what car you buy, your safe driving behavior is the most Important safety factor.
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From page 131... ...
122 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY terviewees were given both labels to compare, then were asked to complete a short written questionnaire (see Appendix D)
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From page 132... ...
DEVELOPING AND COMMUNICATING NEW MEASURES OF SAFETY • 123 glance.7 The modal responses on the written questionnaire showed that interviewees could use the displays to compare the typical values for that specific vehicle with those for its class and for all vehicles and could use the range information for comparative purposes. However, in the interviews the graphical displays were the source of the largest number of comments of all kinds, indicating that interviewees spent most effort on this section of the labels.
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From page 133... ...
124 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY The design and content of the vehicle safety brochure and the safety handbook should be built on studies of consumer understanding and perception of the determinants of vehicle safety. Once an initial draft has been prepared, it should be subjected to read-aloud protocol analysis (Ericsson and Simon 1993)
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From page 134... ...
DEVELOPING AND COMMUNICATING NEW MEASURES OF SAFETY • 125 Organizational arrangements for ensuring such a permanent process are considered in the next chapter.
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From page 135... ...
126 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY DeGroot, M
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From page 136... ...
if VJ ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS Development of consumer vehicle safety information should be part of an ongoing process to inform the public and provide market and other incentives for the design of safer cars. An organizational structure is needed to sustain these activities and secure the participation of the major interested parties.
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From page 137... ...
128 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY If, instead, the best summary measures that can be produced now are not viewed as a final product but as the first step in designing better measures and safer cars in the future, incentives become apparent. Manufacturers, insurance companies, consumer groups, and others all have an interest in developing and proposing strategies for improvement.
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From page 138... ...
ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS • 129 that better reflect vehicle performance in real crashes and to ascertain the role of vehicle technologies and their use by drivers in avoiding crashes. The group should have the flexibility to change the measures it uses as better methods become available.
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From page 139... ...
130 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY signers must be sensitive to the concerns of the stakeholders who are most affected. A balance between independence and responsiveness can probably best be achieved in an environment insulated from direct political influence.
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From page 140... ...
ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS • 131 of such differing concerns and interests that the committee concludes that no organizational arrangement will ensure success without strong and inventive high-level leadership. Organizational Alternatives Five possible institutional arrangements could meet the criteria outlined: Consumer vehicle safety information and dissemination strategies are developed by NHTSA, and the research and plans in support of improved information are produced by NHTSA.
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From page 141... ...
132 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY and provide consumer automotive safety information. Agency staff could produce or oversee the production of summary vehicle safety measures.
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From page 142... ...
ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS • 133 There are drawbacks to this approach. A potential problem is the difficulty of sustaining a substantial research program.
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From page 143... ...
THE HEALTH EFFECTS INSTITUTE-A PARTIAL MODEL FOR AN AUTOMOTIVE SAFETY INSTITUTE (continued)
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From page 144... ...
OTHER PUBLIC-PRIVATE MODELS FOR AN AUTOMOTIVE SAFETY INSTITUTE A recent review of the Health Effects Institute (NRC 1993) suggested that HEI is only one of several models of public-private cooperative ventures.
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From page 145... ...
136 . SHOPPING FOR SAFETY OTHER PUBLIC-PRIVATE MODELS FOR AN AUTOMOTIVE SAFETY INSTITUTE (continued)
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From page 146... ...
ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS • 137 ability could become an issue with an independent organization. The charter of an ASI should provide for public as well as professional scrutiny of its programs and products.
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138 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY signs. Moreover, it is unlikely that consumer groups or professional organizations would have the resources to mount such an endeavor.
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From page 148... ...
ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS • 139 designs and safety features. The insurance industry would be motivated to participate because of the long-term potential for the program to reduce customer injury and coffision claims.
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From page 149... ...
140 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY as a purchase attribute and could make it easier for safety-conscious market segments -- older drivers, families, and parents of teenage drivers -- to comparison shop and select the safest vehicle they can afford. Moreover, it could motivate automobile manufacturers to make im- provements in safety design so that their products receive good ratings on summary safety measures.
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From page 150... ...
ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS • 141 culation, was produced for the National Safety Council (Fearn et al.
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142 SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Jones-Lee, M.W.
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From page 152... ...
APPENf DIX A WORKSHOP AGENDA AND SPEAKERS JUNE 21, 1995 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS M Granger Morgan, Head, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University (Study Committee Chair)
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From page 153... ...
144 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY New approaches for predicting crashworthiness of new cars -- Forrest Council, Director, Highway Safety Research Center, University of North Carolina Questions and answers C Roundtable discussion 1.
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From page 154... ...
WORKSHOP AGENDA AND SPEAKERS • 145 -- George Parker, Vice President, Engineering Affairs, Associ- ation of International Automobile Manufacturers Consumer safety information -- a dealer's perspective -- Bob Suddith, Dealer Operator and President, Hoffman Auto Park 4. Questions and answers B
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From page 155... ...
146 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY How can safety information best be delivered to support informed consumer decision making? Should considerations of safety be made more prominent in the purchase decision process, and, if so, how can this be accomplished?
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From page 157... ...
148 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY National Academy of Sciences study on consumer needs for automobile information. -- The Committee notes that there is increased consumer interest in motor vehicle safety, and recognizes the role that NHTSA can play in assuring that useful information is made available in the most cost effective manner. To some degree, the NCAP addresses this need, but this program is limited in scope and does not necessarily provide a full assessment of a vehicle's overall safety capabilities.
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From page 159... ...
150 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY APPENDIX C (continued)
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From page 160... ...
FEDERAL MOTOR VEHICLE SEn' STANDARDS • 151 APPENDIX C (continued)
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From page 161... ...
152 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY APPENDIX C (continued)
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From page 162... ...
FEDERAL MOTOR VEHICLE SEn' STANDARDS • 153 APPENDIX C (continued)
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From page 163... ...
APPENDIX D INTERVIEW PROTOCOL AND QUESTIONNAIRE INTERVIEW PROTOCOL USED IN EVALUATING THE Two Ditvr SAFETY LABELS SHOwN IN FIGURE 5-2 Suppose that the government requires that a safety label must be placed on the windows of all new cars sold in the United States. The year is 1997 and you are helping someone shop for a new car.
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From page 164... ...
INTER VIEW PROTOCOL AND QuEsTIOI'IIiAIRE • 155 Here is a different design that might be used for the label on that same compact car, the XYZ300. I'd like you to evaluate it in the same way you did the first one.
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From page 165... ...
156 • SHOPPING FOR SAFETY Please answer the questions below based on the second label you looked at: Is the 1997 XYZ300 typically safer than all other 1997 vehicles? - Yes - No Couldn't tell from label Don't remember Is the 1997 XYZ300 typically safer than all other 1997 compact cars?
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From page 166... ...
STUDY COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION M Granger Morgan, Chairman, is Head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Professor of Engineering and Public Policy and of Electrical and Computer Engineering, and Professor in the H
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From page 167... ...
158 • SHOPPING FOR SEi-y Research Fellow at Carnegie-Mellon University. She is a member of the American Statistical Association, the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, and the Society for Risk Analysis.
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From page 168... ...
BIoGHicAL INFORMATION • 159 Albert I King is Distinguished Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Wayne State University and Director of the Bioengineering Center.
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From page 169... ...
160 • SHOPPING FOR SArEry sions and Fuel Economy Certification, Director of Ford's Automotive Safety Office, Executive Director of Worldwide Automotive Planning, Executive Director of Worldwide Technical Strategy, and most recently, Executive Director of Worldwide Automotive Strategy.
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From page 170... ...
The Transportation Research Board is a unit of the National Research Council, which serves the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board's purpose is to stimulate research concerning the nature and performance of transportation systems, to disseminate the information produced by the research, and to encourage the application of appropriate research findings.
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NON-PROFITORG. National Research Council U.S.
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Key Terms
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