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Radiation and the International Space Station Recommendations to Reduce Risk (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Epilogue: A Notional Scenario for Improved Support of International Space Station Construction
Pages 52-56

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From page 52...
... To illustrate the potential value to NASA of having much better information from space weather services, this section presents a counterfactual situation in which SPE forecasts are accurate enough to cause a flight director to alter a preset schedule of mission activities. One ancillary point made by this illustration is that high solar activity does not necessarily mean high radiation doses.
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From page 53...
... It envisages a time when accurate, reliable forecast models which again, to emphasize the point, must still be developed and "transitioned" into operation are in place to model the transport of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to Earth, to model the effects of shocks on interplanetary particle acceleration, and to accurately model the interaction of the disturbed solar wind with Earth' s magnetic field, especially its effects on the size of the zones accessible to solar energetic particles. Given all this, the history of Flight AS13 unfolds as follows: 15 October, 1730 Houston time (HT)
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From page 54...
... After consultation between the flight director, the flight surgeon, and SRAG, it is determined that although the dose rate has gradually reached the alarm level it is still low in terms of crew exposure. SRAG consults with SEC and decides the rapid increase is still not expected before 1600 HT and 5~/~ hours are left before the dose rates rise rapidly.
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From page 55...
... In that alternative case, the EVA would probably have begun and then been cancelled as the radiation levels rose or the crew would have suffered excessive radiation doses while trying to complete the EVA. E.3 THE MISSING PIECES A number of advanced models are posited in this scenario: 55 · Updated PROTONS 5 Model, which predicts SPE from solar X-ray inputs; · Advanced Shock Propagation Model, which predicts shock arrival time and post-shock parameters; · Advanced Profile Forecast Model, which predicts flux profiles as the event proceeds for a standard set of energies; · Version 3.0 Neural Net Fluence Model, which predicts integrated fluence for the event; and · Advanced Polar Cap Model, which specifies energetic particle access zones from predicted postshock and CME conditions.
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From page 56...
... L ~I I I I I l O ~ ~ ~ O O O O O O ~O O O O O O Figure E.1 Timeline for implementing the report's nine recommendations, which are denoted R1 through R6. Al and A2 refer to priority research activities (see Appendix A)
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Key Terms

  • flight director
  • flight surgeon
  • energetic particle
  • iss construction
  • propagation model

  • weather services
  • international space
  • shock propagation
  • polar cap
  • particle data

  • preset schedule
  • satellite particle
  • net fluence
  • advanced shock
  • space environment

  • fluence model
  • dose rate
  • particle fluxes
  • arrival time
  • profile forecast

  • environment center
  • advanced polar
  • forecast models
  • neural net
  • cap model

  • dose rates
  • integrated fluence
  • forecast model
  • spe forecasts
  • mission activities


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