Juvenile Crime, Juvenile Justice (2001) / Chapter Skim
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Patterns and Trends in Juvenile Crime and Juvenile Justice
Patterns and Trends in Juvenile Crime and Juvenile Justice
Pages 25-65
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From page 25... ...
Do those trends differ from trends in adult crime rates? How much of juvenile crime is concentrated in the nation's inner cities and among disadvantaged minorities?
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From page 26... ...
In this section, we discuss these sources of data and their strengths and weaknesses. Arrest Data A common way of measuring crime is to use the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
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From page 27... ...
The UCR provide information on all crimes known to reporting police agencies, whether or not an arrest has been made. There is no information on age of the perpetrator, however, in the data on crimes known to police; thus even if they are a more accurate crime measure, the number of crimes known to police cannot be used to analyze juvenile crime.
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From page 28... ...
Other obstacles noted by Roberts include uncertain benefits of NIBRS to the reporting agencies; concern that NIBRS reporting would be too time-consuming for officers; and concern that reporting all offenses in an incident may give the appearance of an increase in crime. Whatever the reason, only 18 states were NIBRS-certified by the end of 1999 (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 1999)
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From page 29... ...
Victims' perception of the age of the offender for violent crimes is included in the data collected. Because offenders' age may be difficult for a victim to estimate accurately, caution must be exercised in using NCVS to estimate juvenile crime.
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From page 30... ...
Nevertheless, the NCVS provides another source of information to compare with UCR arrest data when looking at trends in juvenile violent crime. Self-Report Data Data on the commission of delinquent acts and crimes are also available from surveys of young people.
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From page 31... ...
Each type of data for analyzing crime trends has advantages and disadvantages. It is important to keep the weaknesses of the various types of data in mind whenever crime rates are discussed.
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From page 32... ...
Official crime rates are based on data reported by police agencies to the FBI about the index crimes of homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault which make up the violent crime index and burglary, larceny and theft, auto theft, and arson which make up the property crime index. In 1998, there were a total estimated 12,475,634 index crimes (both violent and property)
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From page 33... ...
Over the past 30 years, between one-quarter and one-third of all juvenile arrests were for the index property crimes of burglary, larceny/theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. In comparison, in 1998, about 5 percent of arrests of those over age 18 were TABLE 2-1 Percentage of Arrests of Those Ages 10-17, by Offense 1970 1980 1990 1993 1997 1998 Murder 0.08 0.09 0.15 0.17 0.09 0.08 Rape 0.20 0.22 0.27 0.26 0.19 0.20 Robbery 1.81 2.11 1.91 2.18 1.44 1.27 Aggravated Assault 1.27 1.90 2.93 3.37 2.68 2.76 Index violent crime 3.36 4.32 5.26 5.98 4.40 4.31 Burglary 8.82 10.61 6.35 5.71 4.55 4.37 Larceny 18.34 20.49 20.96 19.32 17.52 16.10 Motor Vehicle Theft 4.49 2.97 4.25 3.80 2.38 2.09 Arson 0.28 0.35 0.32 0.36 0.31 0.31 Index property crime 31.92 34.42 31.89 29.18 24.76 22.87 Other assaults 3.13 4.02 6.76 7.73 8.43 9.00 Vandalism 4.31 5.40 5.64 5.72 4.63 4.72 Weapons 1.05 1.21 1.85 2.62 1.85 1.74 Drug abuse violations 4.90 5.10 3.77 4.71 7.90 7.99 Disorderly Conduct 7.48 5.96 5.49 6.04 7.59 7.17 Curfew and loitering 6.56 3.36 3.75 4.30 6.59 7.41 Runaways 10.99 7.11 7.95 7.61 6.95 6.32 Other Offenses 26.29 29.11 27.64 26.12 26.90 28.46 Nonindex crime 64.72 61.26 62.85 64.84 70.84 72.81 Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Source: Data from Federal Bureau of Investigation, 1971 to 1999.
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From page 34... ...
, yet blacks made up 42.3 percent of juvenile arrests for violent crime, whites 55.3 percent, and others 2.4 percent.2 The UCR do not provide estimates for Hispanic juveniles.3 For property crime arrests of juveniles, blacks accounted for 26.6 percent, whites 70.1 percent, and others 3.3 percent. Distributions for adults are similar, with blacks accounting for a disproportionate 40 percent of violent crime arrests and 35 percent of property crime arrests, compared with whites at 58 percent for violent crimes and 63 percent for property crimes, and others at 2 percent for both violent crimes and property crimes.
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From page 35... ...
Victim reports of serious violent crimes by adults, however, show a fairly steady decline, dropping and staying below 1973 rates since 1983, with an increase almost back to 1973 levels in 1993, then dropping again. Victim reports indicate a much higher rate of violent offending by young people and by adults than do arrest rates.
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From page 36... ...
Source: Arrest data from Federal Bureau of Investigation (19741999~; self-report data from Maguire and Pastore (1994-1998~; National Crime Victimization Survey data from Snyder and Sickmund (1999~.
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From page 37... ...
Arrest rates for juveniles are lower than the rates for 18- to 24-year-olds for all four violent crimes and lower than the rates for 25- to 34-year-olds for homicide, rape, and aggravated assault. Figure 2-5 shows the change in arrest rates for the violent index crimes since 1970 by age group.
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From page 38... ...
Source: Arrest data from Federal Bureau of Investigation (1971-1999~.
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From page 39... ...
~ . - ~ ~ \ ,` _ \ \_ ~ ~ I\ \ \ _' \ 10- to 1 7-year-olds 18- to 24-year-olds 25- to 34-year-olds 35 and older , ' ~ _ / / I f J '\__' 'A ~ ,~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~99 ~99 ~99 ~99 ~99 Year Aggravated assault — 10- to 1 7-year-olds -- -- 18- to 24-year-olds -- -- -- - 25- to 34-year-olds 35 and older 7 600 500 Go 4oo of o o ¢, 300 200 100 O- _ FIGURE 2-4 Continued 39 __` ., ~ .
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From page 40... ...
Source: Arrest data from Federal Bureau of Investigation (1971-1999~; population data from U.S. Census Bureau (1982)
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From page 41... ...
~~ 4/ ~~ Ad ~ ~ ` Ox _ `~r° a_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 90` 9_ 94~ _ ~ ~ ~ 4 .' 'I 0° \t \ \ ~ \ \ N\~\ ~ _ ~ ~ _ __ -100 ,~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~99 ~99 ~99 ~99 ~99 41 Year Aggravated assault 300 200 a)
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From page 42... ...
reported no known juvenile homicide offenders (Sickmund et al., 1997~. The increase in homicide rates among juveniles from the late 1980s through the early l990s was entirely due to an increase in homicides committed with firearms by adolescents (see Figure 2-7~.
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From page 43... ...
The fact that the increase in homicides was confined to those committed with guns and that property crimes did not increase in the same way that violent crimes did argues against the explanation of increasingly vicious young people. Blumstein (1995)
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From page 44... ...
Levitt (1998) analyzed relative incarceration rates and violent crime rates for juveniles and adults.
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From page 45... ...
At the same time, police crackdowns on drug markets may have limited the opportunities for revenue from illegal activities, increasing the likelihood of taking the more available legal jobs. Finally, the high rate of incarceration of drug offenders may have had an impact on homicide rates, although Blumstein and Rosenfeld (1998)
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From page 46... ...
Young people's self-reports of engaging in serious fighting are relatively flat from 1982 to 1998; self-reports of injuring someone badly enough to need bandages or a doctor rose somewhat beginning in 1989 and in 1998 were 27 percent higher than in 1982. Aggravated assault arrests, in contrast, began rising above 1982 levels in 1986 and reached a peak in 1994 that was 2.1 times the 1982 rate.
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From page 47... ...
There is considerable circumstantial evidence from a number of sources that indicates that a changing police threshold for charging aggravated assault was responsible for the increase in aggravated assault arrests during the 1980s (Zimring, 1998~. The patterns of arrests for aggravated assault of 10- to 17-year-olds and 25- to 34-yearolds from 1980 to 1995 are nearly identical, but the two groups' homicide arrest patterns were very different, with the older group's homicide arrest rates declining at the same time the younger groups was growing rapidly.
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From page 48... ...
lust as with the index violent crimes, arrest rates for the index property crimes vary from one another (see Figure 2-10~. Arrest rates for 10- to 17-year-olds are higher than rates for other age groups for all four index property offenses.
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From page 49... ...
~ ~' ) - l l ,~9~ ~9~ j ,~9~ ~99~ ~99 Year j ,~99 ,~99 FIGURE 2-9 Change since 1982 in property arrest rates of 10- to 17-year-olds compared to self-reported property offense rates by high school seniors and victim reports of property offenses for all ages.
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From page 50... ...
Q C) tr 1 000 800 600 400 200 J ~ N ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ 1 be,, ~ _ \ a\ N \ ' N\ 10- to 17-year-olds 18- to 24-year-olds -- -- -- - 25- to 34-year-olds 35 and older No ~~ ~ ~ ~ so ~ ~ ~ ~ 90 9~ 9> 96 9 Year - 10- to 17-year-olds -- -- 18- to 24-year-olds 25- to 34-year-olds 35 and older Larceny/theft I\\ , /\/ if -- -'\ -a -- ' ''', ' l l / _ ~ _——~ _ ~ t ~9 ~9 FIGURE 2-10 Arrest rates for index property crimes, by age groups.
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From page 51... ...
PATTERNS AND TRENDS 100 50 Motor vehicle theft 400 - ~ 10- to 1 7-year-olds 18- to 24-year-olds ~ 25- to 34-year-olds 350 - ~ 35 and older / 300- / \ ° 250~ ~ /,, `____\ \ / ~ '` \ 50]
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From page 52... ...
~ 5 ~ ~ 94 ~ 60~ ~~-~ 20Pi O- I INTO ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ good ~9~ ~9~ ~9~ ~9~' INTO ~99~ ~99~ ~99~ ~99°° \ \ \ f—_ ~ r ' ~ / \' Year FIGURE 2-11 Change in arrest rates since 1970 for index property crimes, by age group.
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From page 53... ...
_ a) ~ 60a' 40on nMotor vehicle theft ~ 10- to 1 7-year-olds -- -- 18- to 24-year-olds - - - - - 25- to 34-year-olds 35 and older R ,/ ~ I ,"' 'I "' I
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From page 54... ...
Because one of the provisions of the Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act of 1974 was the deinstitutionalization of status offenders, in order to receive federal juvenile justice funding, states could no longer keep status offenders In secure detention facilities. Although the decline in status offense arrests began prior to the passage of the act, it is possible that the act reinforced the trend away from arresting juveniles for status offenses.
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From page 55... ...
Source: Arrest data from Federal Bureau of Investigation (19761998~; population data from Bureau of the Census (1982) and online at http:// www.census.gov/population/estimates; self-report data from Monitoring the Future Johnston et al., 1998~.
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From page 56... ...
Since 1981, arrests of blacks for drug offenses have soared. Were one to use arrest data alone, it could be concluded that there has been an explosion of drug use among black juveniles since the late 1980s.
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From page 57... ...
Arrests of girls for both property crimes and violent crimes have increased over the past two decades (see Figure 2-14~. For violent crime, the arrest rate of young females increased more than that of young males 120 percent between 1981 and 1994 compared with 60 percent for males.
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From page 58... ...
Boys have consistently higher arrest rates than girls for all crimes except for prostitution and running away. In 1998, boys and girls were arrested for index violent crimes at a rate of 603 per 100,000 and 127 per 100,000, respectively and for index property crimes at a rate of 2,733 per 100,000 and 1,156 per 100,000, respectively.6 Self-report data show more similarity between boys' and girls' behavior than do arrest data for some offenses (see Table 2-4~.
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From page 59... ...
Drug offenses 7.1 (5) Vandalism 6.7 (1)
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From page 60... ...
Male Female Ratio Serious fight at school Simple assault arrest Hurt someone enough to need bandages or doctor Aggravated assault arrest Used a weapon to take something from someone Robbery arrest Stole something worth more than $50 Stole something worth less than $50 Theft arrest Damaged property at school or work Vandalism arrest 21 1.2 23 0.4 7 0.19 17 39 1.8 21 11 2:1 6 0.35 3:1 4:1 4:1 0.09 0.02 7 25 0.97 8 0.67 0.12 4:1 9:1 2:1 2:1 2:1 3:1 5:1 Source: Monitoring the Future data from Pastore and Maguire (1998~; arrest data from committee analysis of UCR (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 1999~. boys to girls for aggravated assault arrests is 4:1, the same ratio as selfreports of hurting someone badly enough to need bandages or a doctor.
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From page 61... ...
all predicted continually rising violent crime trends. To the extent that crime forecasts are meant to represent likely paths that crime rates may take, they should attempt to minimize, or at least be cognizant of, the effects of continuity bias that is, the assumption that the current patterns will continue on the forecasts.
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From page 62... ...
Comparing victim reports and arrest data to juvenile self-reports of behavior improves the situation somewhat. Many self-report studies, however, are conducted with school-based samples, omitting dropouts and truants who may have higher offending rates than children and adolescents who attend school regularly.
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From page 63... ...
Some of the rise in other violent crime arrest rates between the mid-1980s and early 1990s seems to have been a result of changes in police policies regarding whether to consider specific types of assault as aggravated assaults rather than simple assaults and an increasing willingness to arrest for assault. Much of the rise in juvenile homicides appears to be linked to an increase in the use of firearms.
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From page 64... ...
Public policy on juvenile crime, particularly the trend toward more punitive sanctions (see Chapter 5) , has been greatly influenced by predictions of future crime rates predictions that have proven notoriously inaccurate.
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From page 65... ...
The incorporation of these characteristics into crime forecasts should result in more realistic uses and assessments of the forecasts. Nevertheless, current capacity to forecast crime rates is very limited.
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