Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers Report of a Workshop on Methodology (2000) / Chapter Skim
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3 Objectives and Approaches of Forecasting Models
3 Objectives and Approaches of Forecasting Models
Pages 23-30
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From page 23... ...
Others include universities that need to shape the size and scope of their graduate programs, industry planners who need to anticipate worker shortages in key areas of emerging technology, and government funders of graduate education and research, at both state and federal levels, who need to allocate public funds wisely. What is desired in a forecasting model may vary for each of these groups, in terms of horizon, level of detail, and focus.
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From page 24... ...
OWNED will offer data on skills, abilities, and credentials of workers in various occupations, as well as specific descriptions of work performed by occupation. This degree of detail should assist the construction of behavioral models of occupational demand, but OWNED does not provide data specifically about science and engineering occupations at the doctoral level.
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From page 25... ...
There is a need, however, for publicly funded programs to facilitate retraining and for additional research on occupational choice by college students. Because private firms cannot capture all the productivity gain from worker retraining, society will tend to invest too little in this, at some social cost.
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From page 26... ...
. Such forecasts would also better permit these organizations to prepare and target educational materials for the increasingly diverse groups that make up employees in nonprofit education and research institutions (e.g., part-time and adjunct faculty as well as the traditional base of university faculty and staff)
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From page 27... ...
This is clearly problematic, since very strong evidence exists that this relationship has changed and will continue to change as the fixed costs of employment rise relative to variable costs and as the relative importance of overtime cost declines. Also worrisome is the assumption that relationships change at the same rate (linear or exponential)
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From page 28... ...
It does not need forecasts on a regular basis, but does need them when an issue arises like the adequacy of the supply of information technology workers. In such situations, forecasts are often produced by groups with a vested interest in the outcome of legislation and a limited technical understanding of the rigors of sampling, forecasting models, and labor market definitions.3 Even if it is difficult to construct supply and demand models in a legislative time frame, a cadre of analysts who have studied the market and can critique the forecasts of special interest groups is valuable.
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From page 29... ...
Modeling should anticipate problems, not just explain past events. Some current trends that are not accounted for in the current generation of supply and demand models are globalization of research, distance learning, education by industry that bypasses traditional institutions of higher education, and the growth of industry/university partnerships.
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