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Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers Report of a Workshop on Methodology (2000) / Chapter Skim
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4 Neglected Margins of Adjustment: Substitution and Quality
Pages 31-36

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From page 31...
... Employers may revise job descriptions, reassign tasks, reorganize laboratory operations, and modify training programs. Employees may switch activities or fields and retrain to qualify in new areas.
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From page 32...
... If undergraduates change majors rapidly in order to move into the hottest fields, and if doctoral students can easily change their area of research concentration when new areas emerge, shortages are likely to be short lived. Conversely, if students lack information about what fields are opening up, if significant "retooling" to change fields is required, or if institutional factors inhibit changes of wages, substitution may take a long time to occur, and the result will be a relatively inelastic, short-run, labor supply curve.
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From page 33...
... For examp~e, if many students are currently enrolled in engineering schools, then entry of freshmen in the current period is deterred, ceteris paribus. Of course enrollments are encouraged by greater expected future demand conditions and discouraged by greater expected career prospects in alternative occupations.
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From page 34...
... Other responses to the model noted that immigration is an important alternative supply source for engineering markets, but one that does not appear explicitly in the model. Further, as Rosen pointed out, much of the demand for engineers comes from the industrial sector and the bulk of demand is for people with baccalaureate degrees.
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From page 35...
... For new Ph.D.s, a postdoctoral appointment delays entry into the labor market, thus disrupting supply and shortening the length of careers in regular employment. Also, the postdoctoral pool provides a ready supply of highly trained Ph.D.s that is available for regular employment if academic or industrial demand increases, thus shortening the period of adjustment until such time as the postdoctoral pool is drained.
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From page 36...
... By contrast, in academia a faculty member rarely changes departments and is hardly ever hired in a field outside the field of .
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Key Terms

  • future wages
  • labor market
  • regular employment
  • postdoctoral pool
  • substitution occurs

  • expected future
  • estimated future
  • future values
  • current population
  • ability relative

  • model noted
  • current wages
  • current stock
  • study postpones
  • hottest fields

  • students lack
  • ryoo addressed
  • workers depends
  • undergraduates change
  • unrealistic supply

  • product recall
  • wage profile
  • inverse function
  • supply curve
  • population survey

  • industrial demand
  • demographic identity
  • appointment delays
  • lifetime earnings
  • entry decisions


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