Report of the Committee on a Feasibility Study of National Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Personnel (1975) / Chapter Skim
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2 Earlier Efforts to Estimate National Needs
2 Earlier Efforts to Estimate National Needs
Pages 2-4
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From page 2... ...
The National Science Foundation has completed two studies -- -and has a third in preparation -- -on the projected relationship between supply and utilization of science and engineering doctorates, based upon supply trends for six preceding years and explicit assumptions concerning rates of increase in the Gross National Product, funds to be expended on research and development, and employment requirements for academic and nonacademic positions (2~. In terms of direct relevance to the present area of inquiry, several publications of the National Institutes of Health merit special attention.
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From page 3... ...
In addition, Freeman and Breneman have examined current forecasting techniques against a background of past forecasting failures, and have described a methodology for making "response adjusted" projections, based on student career decisions, experienced personnel supply behavior, employer decisions, and salary determinations (10~. The National Planning Associat~on has undertaken a pilot study to assess the potential for anticipating the scientific manpower requirements likely to be generated by expenditures in pursuit of national goals in the private economy in the next five-ten years.
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From page 4... ...
The Committee and its panels believe, however, that the present methodology and data base are adequate for developing a strategy and for making a start toward forecasting aggregate manpower requirements for biomedical/behavioral research. Even though use of particular assumptions may introduce an appreciable margin of error at the outset, available methodology and the data base are adequate to indicate the direction of change.
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