Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply Volume I: Findings (1989) / Chapter Skim
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3. The Future Labor Market for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel
3. The Future Labor Market for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel
Pages 51-66
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From page 51... ...
PRIOR COMMITTEE PROJECTIONS AND CURRENT METHODOLOGY The legislation mandating this study requires the committee to assess "the nation's overall need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel.' Past committees have defined this "need" in labor market terms -- that is, how many biomedical and behavioral researchers will be "needed" in the future to fill academic demand? Job openings were determined by growth in the number of academic positions and faculty attrition.
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From page 52... ...
Those who do not retire or die can also leave the field for other employment; this too is 2Although the NRSA program is concerned only with research personnel, it is necessary to take account of the total demand for biomedical and behavioral scientists to ensure that an adequate supply is available. Rapid employment growth in the industrial sector could create hiring difficulties in the academic sector even if academic sector employment is stable or declining.
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From page 53... ...
Career Age Figure 3-1. Labor market assessment mode Demand for Scientists 1.
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From page 54... ...
In the simplified approach used here, however, we have implicitly assumed that these excluded variables are constant; we are primarily concerned with major shifts in the demand and supply of scientists through time. While the resulting analysis takes little account of the responses of institutions and individuals to changing labor market conditions, the projections contained in this chapter do serve to highlight the consequences of current trends and suggest courses of corrective action.6 Where possible, we do discuss potential labor market adjustments to changing conditions.
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From page 55... ...
As the biomedical scientist cadre matures, attrition from death and retirement will increase the demand for replacement in these areas. Growth in Employment In order to provide projections of future demand for biomedical scientists, the committee developed the following scenarios, which are summarized in Table 3-1: Low Case: The low-case scenario corresponds to a conservative retrenchment from current trends: cuts are imposed on growth rates of federal health R&D, and the private sector retreats from current growth levels.
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From page 56... ...
, in biomedical employment averaged 4.S percent annually 3 for the 1973-1987 period; the c projected growth rates for the low, mid, and high cases are 1.8 c percent, 3.6 percent, and 5.2 v percent, respectively. Biomedical scientists engaged primarily in R&D or the management of R&D will grow , faster than the biomedical work e force in general.
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From page 57... ...
, both the mid-case and high-case scenarios will produce even greater imbalances between job openings and new biomedical Ph.D.s. In summary, the committee projects a future labor market for biomedical scientists that is characterized by increasing imbalance between demand and supply.
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From page 58... ...
science need. THE FUTURE LABOR MARKET FOR BEHAVIORAL SCIENTISTS The behavioral sciences are made up of a group of disciplines that includes clinical psychology, nonclinical psychology, anthropology, sociology, and speech pathology (these latter three are grouped together as "other behavioral sciences"~.
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From page 59... ...
However, clinical practice will offer an attractive employment opportunity for behavioral scientists in general, and could be expected to draw scientists from R&D activities. Nonclinical Psychology Nonclinical psychologists make up approximately 30 percent of the behavioral scientist work force.
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From page 60... ...
Total growth in the employment of nonclinical psychologists averaged 3.1 percent annually for the 1973-1987 period; projected employment growth is expected to range from-0.4 percent to 1.9 percent. In all cases nonclinical psychologists engaged primarily in R&D or the management of R&D are projected to remain at a fairly constant proportion (approximately 27 percent)
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From page 61... ...
This balance is projected to continue into the 1990s, with approximately 80 percent of all job openings coming from attrition. Projections for nonclinical psychology R&D employment indicate a softening of the job market, with fewer R&D job openings per postdoctorate through 1995 than 2000 1500 1000 o 3 500rat Owls Cl /// PhD.s 1200 1000 =, 800 o ~ 600 400 OF ~ 200 ¢ ' Net Mobility e]
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From page 62... ...
In summary, the future labor market for other behavioral scientists will be characterized by relative stability unless (1) the future rate of growth in employment exceeds 2.0 percent annually; and/or (2)
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From page 63... ...
In the R&D sector, movement of postdoctoral students into the labor market at the current level of approximately 120 annually would satisfy long-term R&D demand. The committee's projections of greater growth in demand for biomedical than for behavioral scientists disagrees with the findings of a recent study by Bowen and Sosa.
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From page 64... ...
, and other federally-employed investigators reported? To reflect how the demand for clinical investigators is created, and how decisions to employ them are made would require a model in which demand is expressed as an explicit function of such variables as NIH intramural and extramural budgets, FDA budget, pharmaceutical industry R&D expenditures, and state research appropriations to medical schools.
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From page 65... ...
Biomedical Scientists If recent trends in employment growth (4.1 percent annual rate) and attrition continue, job openings for biomedical scientists will exceed 8,000 per year by the year 2000.
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From page 66... ...
Extending recent trends (2.0 percent annual growth) in nonclinical psychology employment growth through the year 2000 results in annual job openings of approximately 1,900 in that year.
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