Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply Volume I: Findings (1989) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix 3: Summary of Employment Trends
Appendix 3: Summary of Employment Trends
Pages 99-122
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From page 100... ...
SOURCE: NSF Survey of Dedicated Biotechnology Companies, 1989.
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orof i t Tote l 1973 43244 25471 3607 1031 4338 5369 518 1431 1293 186 1975 50088 28332 5369 994 4517 6662 840 1948 1232 194 1977 54234 30384 6312 1040 4568 6893 862 -2297 1543 335 1979 61649 33566 7268 1079 5080 8455 1178 2726 1858 439 1981 68039 36482 8026 1236 5398 9928 1857 2799 2088 225 1983 70471 36963 7827 661 5988 11819 1910 2946 2102 255 1985 78687 41032 8364 783 6479 13706 2254 3307 2460 302 1987 84434 43025 8172 909 7049 15928 2634 3629 2651 437 Growth 4~9% 3a8% 6~0% ~0~9% 3~5% 8a 1% 12~3% 6~9% 5 a3% 6~3 R&D 1973 23188 9915 3403 926 3094 4110 ! 20 648 1013 58 1975 25955 10292 4776 - 933 3107 4949 53 861 954 32 1977 29378 12523 5590 977 2936 5084 45 1035 1 146 42 1979 34554 15015 6103 916 3321 6247 110 1383 1404 56 1981 38807 16628 7183 1130 3529 7196 126 1272 1723 20 1983 39034 16910 6B28 621 3608 8283 207 1031 1529 17 1985 43595 19607 6924 698 3818 9382 283 1 092 1780 1 1 1987 511 10 22751 7346 746 4670 12359 328 1 143 1749 19 Growth 5~8% 6~1% 5~6% -1~5% 3~0% 8~2% 22~1% 4~1% 4~0% -7~6 Percent R&D ~ 1973 53~6% 38~9% 94~4% 89~8% 71~3% 76~5% 3~9% 45~3% 78~4% 30~9 1975 51~8% 36~3% 88~9% 93~8% 68~8% 74~3% 6~3% 44~2% 77~4% 16~5 1977 54~2% 41~2% 88~6% 93~9% 64~3% 73~8% 5~2% 45~0% 74~3% 12~6 1979 56~0% 44~7% 84~0% 84~9°X 65~4% 73~9% 9~3% 50~7% 75~5% 12~7 1981 57~0% 45~6% 89~5% 91~4% 65~4% 72~5% 6~8% 45~4% 82~5% 8~9 1983 55 ~ 4% 45 ~ Rio 87e 2% 93 ~ 9% 60 ~ 3% 70 ~ 1% 10 ~ 8% 35 ~ 0% 72 ~ rx 6 ~ 7 1985 55~4% 47~8% 82~8% 89~1% 58~9% 68~4% 12~6% 33~0% 72~4% 3~7 1987 60~5% 52.9% 89~9°% 82a 1% 66~2% 77~6% 12~5% 31 ~5% 66~0% 4~4 SOURCE: 1973-1987 Survey of Doctorate Recipients.
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3% 39 ~ 4% 16 ~ 2% 23 ~ 2% 48 ~ 0% 8. 7 1985 25~6% 19~4% 60~0% 0~0% 57~0% 46.6% 12.3% 21~4% 33.6% 15.0 1987 29~9% 23~6% 84~2% 0.0% 58~7°X 43.1% 8.3% 19~0% 48.0% 27.8 SOURCE: 1973- 1987 Survey of Doctorate Rec i pi ents .
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Table A-4. Total and R&D Employment by Employment Sector, 1973-1987, Other Behavioral Sciences Aca - Post - Se l f - Non Year Tota l derni c doe Labs Gove I ndus Enol Hoso urof i t Other Tota l 1973 6689 6135 98 (1 121 42 52 12 187 42 1975 8351 7621 151 0 2tO 21 55 41 238 14 1977 10322 9239 246 0 311 40 81 46 306 53 1979 11127 9568 282 0 453 129 103 54 497 41 1981 11019 9477 199 0 463 57 183 37 457 146 1983 12749 11002 271 0 385 128 380 218 249 116 1985 12945 11009 256 0 218 193 466 373 304 126 1987 12928 10767 192 0 379 229 455 408 346 152 Growth 4~8% 4~1% 4~9% 8~5% 129X 168X 28~6% 4~5% 9~6 R&D 1973 1309 934 98 0 81 20 28 12 125 11 1975 1557 1062 116 0 150 9 12 15 188 4 1977 2171 1455 206 0 193 20 23 14 251 9 1979 2680 1653 200 0 297 81 14 10 411 15 1981 2333 1403 111 0 428 12 4 11 336 28 1983 2065 1456 161 0 179 2 45 9 151 62 1985 1967 1479 115 0 126 21 52 47 113 12 1987 2539 1688 136 0 232 147 78 74 177 8 Growth 4~8% 4~3% 2~4% 7~8% 15~3% 7~7°X 13~9% 2~5% -2~2 Percent R&D 1973 19~6% 15~2% 100~0% 0~0% 67~3% 47~6% 53~3% 100~0% 66~9% 25.r 1975 18~6% 13~9% 77~0% 0~0% 71~6% 42~9% 22~6% 35~7% 79~0% 28~6 1977 21~0% 15~8% 83~9% 0~0% 61.9% 50~0% 28~4% 30~4% 82~0% 16~7 1979 24~1% 17~3% 71~1% 0~0% 65~5% 62~7% 13~6% 18~5% 82.rX 35~6 1981 21~2% 14~8% 55~9% 0~0% 92.4% 21~1% 2~2% 29.r/o 73~5% 18~9 1983 16~2% 13~2% 59~3% 0~0% 46~5% te7% 12~0% 4~0% 60~5% 53~2 1985 15~2% 13~4% 44~9% 0~0% 57~9% 11~0% 11~1% 12~7% 37~3% 9~9 1987 19~6% 15~7°% 70~8% 0~0% 61~1% 64.0% 17~1% 18~2% 51~1% 5~2 SOURCE: 1 9n- 1987 Survey of Doctorate Rec i pi ents .
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(5) NAS/NRC, Doctorate Record File.
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of NRSA R01 Grant Applicants and Recipients Research Applicants Recipients Training Total Number Percent Number Percent M.D. Postdoctoral Fellows: 10 139 81 58.3% 45 32.4% 9 138 69 50~0% 43 31~2% 8 129 56 43 ~ 4~ 34 26 ~ 4% 7 153 61 39~9% 27 17~6% 6 131 45 34~4% 26 19~8% 5 120 34 28~3% 15 12~5% Ph.D.
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Supply in the Biomedical Sciences, 1973- 1995 Emp(oy Year ment Death and Retire- Net Total PhD Vacancy ment Attrition Dent Mobi litY Growth Openings Output Ratio Rate Rate Ref resh Historical 1973 39637 1974 42101 645 396 2464 3506 3417 1.03 0.086 0.026 1975 44719 691 421 2618 3730 3515 1.06 0.083 0.026 1976 46293 740 447 1574 2761 3578 0.77 0.080 0.027 1977 47922 m 463 1629 2865 3465 0.83 0.075 0.027 1978 51049 806 479 3127 4413 3518 1.25 0.073 0.027 1979 54381 866 510 3332 4708 3644 1.29 0.071 0.027 1980 57128 930 544 2747 4220 3823 1.10 0.070 0.027 1981 60013 985 571 2885 4441 3846 1.15 0.067 0.027 1982 61314 1043 600 1301 2944 3960 0.74 0.066 O.Q27 1983 62644 1074 613 1330 3017 3788 0.80 0.062 0.028 1984 66373 1106 626 3729 5461 3902 1.40 0.062 0.028 1985 70323 1181 664 3950 5795 3787 1.53 0.057 0.028 1986 73232 1261 703 2909 4873 3864 1.26 0.055 0.028 1987 76262 1323 732 3030 5085 3969 1.28 0.054 0.028 Projected (Mid-Case Scenario) 1988 80240 1388 763 3978 6129 3969 1.54 0.052 0.028 1989 82330 1460 802 2090 4353 3969 1.10 0.049 0.028 1990 85870 1564 823 3540 5927 3969 1.49 0.048 0.029 1991 88880 1582 859 3010 5451 3969 1.37 0.046 0.028 1992 91990 1593 889 3110 5592 3969 1.41 0.045 0.028 1993 95360 1601 920 3370 5891 3969 1.48 0.043 0.027 1994 98720 1788 954 3360 6102 3969 1.54 0.042 0.029 1995 102460 1816 987 3740 6543 3969 1.65 0.040 0.028 SOURCE: Historical employment data are from Appendix Table A-2; historical Ph.D.
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Supply in Nonclinical Psychology, 1973- 1995 Death and Ret resh Employ- Retire- Net Total PhD Vacancy ment Attrition Year sent meet_ Mobi litv Growth _Openinss Output Ratio Rate _ Rate _ Historical 1973 6591 1084 1974 7352 94 198 761 1052 1 152 0.91 0.
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Supply in Other Behavioral Death and RefreshEmploy- Retire- Net Total PhD Vacancy ment Attrition ment ment Mobility Growth Openings Output Ratio Rate Rate Historical 19 in 12900 1974 13823 184 387 923 1494 1537 0.97 0.119 0.044 1975 14811 208 415 988 1611 1607 1.00 0.116 0.045 1976 15062 233 444 251 929 1590 0.58 0.107 0.046 1977 15317 249 452 255 956 1637 0.58 0.109 0.047 1978 15550 264 460 233 957 1591 0.60 0.104 0.047 1979 15787 280 467 237 983 1582 0.62 0.102 0.048 1980 16850 296 474 1063 1832 1517 1.21 0.096 0.049 1981 17985 328 506 1135 1968 1615 1.22 0.096 0.049 1982 18350 363 540 365 1268 1477 0.86 0.082 0.050 1983 18723 384 551 373 1308 1545 0.85 0.084 0.051 1984 18911 406 562 188 1156 1504 0.77 0.080 0.052 1985 19101 424 567 190 1181 1393 0.85 0.074 0.052 1986 19469 443 573 368 1384 1367 1.01 0.072 0.053 1987 19844 465 584 375 1425 1366 1.04 0.070 0.054 Projected (Mid-Case Scenario) 1988 20030 470 556 186 1211 1366 0.89 0.069 0.052 1989 20220 474 566 190 1230 1366 0.90 0.068 0.052 1990 20400 471 634 180 1285 1366 0.94 0.068 0.05S 1991 20600 455 606 200 1261 1366 0.92 0.067 0.052 1992 20790 444 583 190 1217 1366 0.89 0.066 0.050 1993 21000 438 564 210 1212 1366 0.89 0.066 0.048 1994 21210 460 581 210 1251 1366 0.92 0.065 0.050 1995 21420 474 599 210 1283 1366 0.94 0.064 0.051 SOURCE: Historical employment data are from Appendix Table A-3; historical Ph.D.
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D . Postdoctora l Trainees/Fellows and Full-Time Faculty in Clinical Departments, 1977- 1987 Nurser of Ful l -T ime Trainees/ Cl inical Year Fel lows Facul ty 1961 2770 7201 1962 3871 7698 1963 4220 8909 1964 4587 9474 1965 4921 10649 1966 5081 11447 1967 4968 13420 1968 5189 15654 1969 5222 15986 1970 5030 16806 1971 4572 19256 1972 4401 21456 1973 4314 23884 1974 3543 24950 1975 3127 26846 1976 2918 28603 1977 2203 30349 1978 1879 32622 1979 1780 34057 1980 1906 3666S 1981 1938 37716 1982 2026 40148 1983 2108 41938 1984 2184 43443 1985 226S 45007 1986 2162 47193 1987 NA 48834 SOURCE: Computed from the NIH Trainee and Fellow File (TFF)
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SOURCE: NRC Doctorate Record File.
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(3) Standard deviation of the column SOURCE: NRC Doctorate Record File.
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(2) Row percent minus total percent.
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(2) Row percent minus total percent.
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Kuh and Roy Radner, Mathematicians in Academia: 1975-2000, A Report to the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.: Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences, 1980, pp.
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growth 10.0% 8.0% 5.0% Projected Employment of Biomedical Scientists, 1973-2000 (in 100s of workers)
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production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoc production remains constant. SOURCE: Estimated by NRC.
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Industrial employment growth High Mid Low 1.0% 0.0X -1.0% 4.0X 3.0% 2.0% Projected Employment of Nonclinical Psychologists, 1973-2000 (in 100s of workers) Low Case Mid Case High Case Year Total R&D % R&D Total R&D % R&D total R&D % R&D 1973 129.0 38.8 30.0% 129.0 38.8 30.0% 129.0 38.8 30.0% 1975 148.1 39.5 26.6% 148.1 39.5 26.6% 148.1 39~5 26.6% 1977 153.2 43.1 28.1% 153.2 43.1 28.1% 153.2 43.1 28.1% 1979 157.9 49.4 31.3% 157.9 49.4 31.3% 157.9 49.4 31.3% 1981 179.9 50.2 27.9°X 179.9 50.2 27.9% 179.9 50.2 27.9% 1983 187.2 47.7 25.5% 187.2 47.7 25.5% 187.2 47.7 25.5% 1985 191.0 46.8 24.5% 191.0 46.8 24.5% 191.0 46.8 24.5% 1987 198.4 55.7 28.1% 198.4 55.7 28.1% 198.4 55.7 28.1% 1988 200.0 54.9 27.5% 200.3 55.0 27.5% 200.7 55.2 27.5% 1989 195 .5 54.0 27.
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production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoc production remains constant. Graduate model SOURCE: Estimated by NRC .
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0% 7. 0% Pro jected Employment of Other Behavioral Scientists, 1973-2000 ( in 100s of workers)
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production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoc production remains constant. Graduate model SOURCE: Estimated by NRC.
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Toxicology and Control Maternal & Child Health Toxicology Dental Public Health Aquatic Mental Health Environmental Hospital & Medical Care Forensic Other Community Health Inhalation Radiological Health Occupational/Safety Water Pollution Control Air Pollution Environmental Engineering Food Protection Occupational Health Health Administration Social Work Pharmacy Other Health-Rel. Profs.
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_ _ NIH. ADAMHA~ NAS" BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES Psychology General and Experimental Comparative and Animal Physiological Developmental Personality Gerontological Social-Psychological Aspects Abnormal Clinical Education, Counseling, and Guidance Other Psychological Other Behavioral Sciences Sociology Social Psychology-Sociological Aspects Anthropology Social Sciences and Related Disciplines Other Fields CLINICAL SCIENCES Internal Medicine Allergy Pediatrics Geriatrics Obstetrics-Gynecology Radiology Surgery Otorhinolaryngology Ophthalmology Anesthesiology Neuropsychiatry Neurology Psychiatry Preventive Medicine Other Clinical Medicine Veterinary Medicine Clinical Dentistry NURSING RESEARCH BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES Psycho l osY Experimental and General Psychophysics Physiological Psycho l ogy and Psychobi o l ogy Developmental and Child Personality Social Community and Ecological Other Behavioral Sciences Health Administration and Public Health Education and Guidance Sociology Demography or Population Dynamics Anthropology Linguistics Social Sciences and Related Disciplines Economics Political Science Bioethics Social/Behavioral Sciences CLINICAL SCIENCES Psychiatry Other Clinical Medicine Nursing Social Work Clinical Psychology BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES Psychology General Clinical Cognitive Counseling and Guidance Developmental and Educational School Experimental Comparative Physiological Psychometrics Quantitative Social Industrial and Organizational Personality Human Engineering Behavior/Ethology Other Psychology Other Behavioral Sciences Anthropology Sociology Audiology and Speech Pathology *
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