Forensic Analysis: Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence

National Research Council

doi:10.17226/10924

Forensic Analysis:Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence (2004)

Consensus Study Report

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Forensic Analysis

Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence(2004)

Consensus Study Report

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Overview

Contributors

National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology; Committee on Scientific Assessment of Bullet Lead Elemental Composition Comparison

Description

Since the 1960s, testimony by representatives of the Federal Bureau of Investigation in thousands of criminal cases has relied on evidence from Compositional Analysis of Bullet Lead (CABL), a forensic technique that compares the elemental composition of bullets found at a crime scene to the elemental composition of bullets found in a suspect’s possession. Different from ballistics techniques that compare striations on the barrel of a gun to those on a recovered bullet, CABL is used when no gun is recovered or when bullets are too small or mangled to observe striations. Forensic Analysis: Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence assesses the scientific validity of CABL, finding that the FBI should use a different statistical analysis for the technique and that, given variations in bullet manufacturing processes, expert witnesses should make clear the very limited conclusions that CABL results can support. The report also recommends that the FBI take additional measures to ensure the validity of CABL results, which include improving documentation, publishing details, and improving on training and oversight.

Topics

Suggested Citation

National Research Council. 2004. Forensic Analysis: Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.https://doi.org/10.17226/10924.

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Publication Info

226 pages |6 x 9
ISBNs:

Paperback: 978-0-309-09079-7
Ebook: 978-0-309-16643-0

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/10924

RESOURCES AT A GLANCE

Contents

Table of Contents	skim chapter
Front Matter	i-xii
Executive Summary	1-7
1. Introduction	8-11
2. Compositional Analysis	12-25
3. Statistical Analysis of Bullet Lead Data	26-70
4. Interpretation	71-108
5. Major Findings and Recommendations	109-114
Appendix A: Statement of Task	115-117
Appendix B: Committee Membership	118-123
Appendix C: Committee Meeting Agendas	124-129
Appendix D: Glossary	130-132
Appendix E: Basic Principles of Statistics	133-141
Appendix F: Simulating False Match Probabilities Based on Normal Theory	142-150
Appendix G: Data Analysis of Table 1, Randich et al.	151-156
Appendix H: Principal Components Analysis: How Many Elements Should Be Measured?	157-162
Appendix I: The Birthday Problem Analogy	163-164
Appendix J: Understanding the Significance of the Results of Trace Elemental Analysis of Bullet Lead	165-168
Appendix K: Statistical Analysis of Bullet Lead Data by Karen Kafadar and Clifford Spiegelman	169-214

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