NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. 50-DKNA-7-90052 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-07404-5
Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON (Chairman), University of Maryland, College Park
EDWARD S. SARACHIK (Vice-Chairman), University of Washington, Seattle
MAURICE L. BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, Midwestern Climate Center, Illinois State Water Survey
RICHARD E. HALLGREN, American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C.
JAMES E. HANSEN, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
RAYMOND NAJJAR, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula
DIAN J. SEIDEL, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, Maryland
LYNNE D. TALLEY, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
ANNE M. THOMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
ANDREW J. WEAVER, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, New Jersey
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Study Director
CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Chairman), Pennsylvania State University, University Park
SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN, University of Oklahoma, Norman
STEVEN F. CLIFFORD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
GEORGE L. FREDERICK, Radian Electronic Systems, Austin, Texas
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook
CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
JUDITH L. LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
ROGER A. PIELKE, JR., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine
ROBERT T. RYAN, WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.
MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
THOMAS F. TASCIONE, Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska
ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, New Jersey
Ex Officio Members
DONALD S. BURKE, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
DARA ENTEKHABI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MARIO MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park
EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director
TENECIA A. BROWN, Project Assistant
CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ALEXANDRA R. ISERN, Program Officer
ROBIN A. MORRIS, Financial Associate
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer
VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Program Officer
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chairman), University of Virginia, Charlottesville
RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia
LYNN GOLDMAN, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense, Oakland, California
EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park
DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
BRAD MOONEY, J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
HUGH C. MORRIS, El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL, Joint Institute for Energy and Environment and University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville
ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ANDREW R. SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
CHRISTINE HENDERSON, Scientific Reports Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
The authoring group would like to thank all of those who participated in the review and provided input to the discussions at the September 8, 2000 meeting of the National Research Council's (NRC) Climate Research Committee (CRC). The committee is especially grateful to W. Lawrence Gates, Paul Try, Roger Barry, David Legler, David Battisti, Antonio Busalacchi, Jr., and Marvin Geller.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. HOLTON, University of Washington, Seattle
KUO-NAN LIOU, University of California, Los Angeles
PIERRE R. MOREL, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
CARL WUNSCH, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Richard M. Goody, Harvard University, appointed by the NRC's Report Review Committee, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.