Index
A
Accuracy measurement, 61
association measures, 62-63 n.7
Chi-square coefficient, 63 n.7
Cohen’s kappa, 63 n.7
comparison group, 35
consistent approach to, 37-51
countermeasures and, 31, 36, 66, 78
and decision threshold, 40, 42-49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.8, 95, 104-105 n.16, 130, 148, 354-357
diagnostic models, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 47, 48, 49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.11, 66, 84, 95, 127, 149
equivariance binormal model, 342-344
false negative probability, 39
false positive index, 35, 36, 38, 39, 61, 62 n.6, 67, 68, 69, 122-123, 180-181, 182, 334, 354-357
false positive probability, 39, 89
funding source for research and, 119-120
limitations of data, 66, 68-69, 109, 115
log-odds ratio, 62-63 n.7
negative predictive value, 39
overestimation, 214
Pearson’s r, 152 n.1
percentage correct index, 31, 43, 46, 49-50, 63 n.8, 129-130, 148
phi coefficient, 63 n.7
positive predictive value, 38, 39, 58-60, 184
purpose of polygraph test and, 22-23, 24, 31, 33-37, 40, 46-47, 48, 60, 101
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve estimation, 342-344, 368
sensitivity and specificity, 38, 39, 43, 45, 48, 78, 85, 91, 94, 122-123, 211 nn.4&5, 318-319, 367-368, 369
theoretical basis, 38, 40, 42, 46, 61, 62-63 n.7, 102, 109, 127-128, 213, 343-344
trapezoidal estimate, 344, 350
used in this study, 43-44, 50-51, 342-344
Yule’s Q, 62-63 n.7
Accuracy of polygraph testing.
See also Criterion validity
beliefs about, 7, 20, 22, 54, 55, 59, 79-80, 90-91, 189, 190, 198, 219- 220, 221
computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168
computerized scoring systems, 298, 299-300, 318-320, 330
countermeasures and, 101, 139-148, 151
defined, 31
diagnostic testing analogy, 7, 128-130, 149
drug effects, 86, 138-139, 142, 150
evidence of, 213-215
in field studies, 148, 350-353
format of test and, 89, 124-125, 127-128, 134-135, 136, 138, 139, 254, 346
funding source and, 347-351
historical claims, 107, 294-296
in laboratory studies, 121-125, 148, 150, 204, 344-349, 350, 351
motivational effect, 127-128, 144, 147, 150, 152 nn.1&2
overall, 2-3, 4, 24, 148-149, 212-213
parallel combined tests, 367-368
personality differences of individuals and, 135-136, 150
physiological differences of individuals and, 94, 101, 134- 135, 150
in reality vs. laboratory experiments, 102, 126-130, 132-133, 143-144, 182, 204
reports to Congress, 114
for security screening, 31, 34-35, 36-37, 48, 60, 66, 95, 101, 130-134, 148, 153 n.7
of serial combination tests, 369
sociocultural group identity of examinees and, 101, 136-137, 150
specific incident, 101, 121-130, 148
Test of Espionage and Sabotage (TES), 34-35, 131-132
with thermal imaging, 157
variability across studies, 124, 150
Acquaintance test. See Stimulation test
Air Force Office of Special Investigations, 263
Airport security screening analogy, 33
Al Qaeda terrorist network, 193, 211 n.6
Alcohol intoxication, 139
Alternative techniques and technologies
autonomic indicators, 80, 154, 155-157, 174
brain function measurement, 80, 104 n.9, 154-155, 157-162, 174-175
classes of techniques, 154-155
demeanor, 52, 155, 163-170, 175-176, 201
direct investigation, 155, 170-173, 176, 201
need for evaluation, 7-8, 176, 217
research approach, 99, 227-228
theoretical limitations, 80, 99, 170, 175, 217
American Association of Police Polygraphists, 278
American Polygraph Association, 278
Anthrax terrorism, 193
Arousal theory, 74, 76, 77, 82, 103 n.7, 127, 156, 287.
See also Psychophysiological responses
Autonomic indicators, 80, 154, 155-157, 174
Assessment of validity. See Accuracy measurement;
Construct validity;
Criterion validity;
Qualitative assessment of polygraph testing;
Quantitative assessment of polygraph testing
B
Background checks, 20, 25, 170-172, 264, 281
Base rate of deception
and accuracy measurement, 46, 48, 50, 148, 354-357
and decision threshold, 46, 48, 50, 148, 183, 184, 354-357
false positive index and, 180-182, 354-357
masking of examiners to, 328, 334, 341
and other uses of polygraphs, 192
in screening situations, 50, 109, 130, 153 n.4, 181-182, 183-184
in specific-incident studies, 130, 181, 184
Behavioral confirmation research, 90
Benzodiazepines, 142
Bite-mark identification, 201, 203, 206-207
Blood pressure, 81, 88, 287, 291, 292, 293, 295.
See also Cardiovascular activity
“Bogus pipeline” research, 55, 56, 59-60, 110
Brain function measurement, 80, 104 n.9, 154-155, 157-162, 174-175
C
Cardiovascular activity, 286-287, 303, 305-306, 309
blood pressure measurement, 81, 88, 287, 291, 292, 293, 295
cardiac vagal activation, 155
countermeasures, 156
heart rate, 308
individual differences in direction and extent of, 82
myocardial contractility, 155-156
respiratory sinus arrhythmia, 156, 308
social and psychological influences, 82, 88-89, 156
traditional measures in polygraph testing, 81, 155
Central Intelligence Agency, 118, 188, 263, 264
Cerograph, 314
Classification error, 311
Cognitive neuroscience, 157-160, 162
Commission on Science and Security, 189.
See also Hamre Commission recommendations
Comparison question technique.
See also Test of Espionage and Sabotage
accuracy, 124-125, 127, 128, 135, 346, 351
computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168
countermeasures, 140, 141, 143
dataset for quantitative assessment, 341
directed-lie, 71, 79, 256, 328
inferences from, 104 n.9
legal issues, 205
meta-analyses of laboratory studies, 152 n.1
orienting theory and, 75, 76-77
in pretest interview, 16, 62 n.2, 77, 261
probable-lie, 14, 71, 255, 256, 328
psychophysiological responses, 14-15, 67, 70-71, 72, 74, 76-77, 83, 93
Reid (modified general questions) test, 255, 304, 311, 316, 318
situational effects and, 28 n.5, 87, 91
stimulation (acquaintance) test, 27 n.4, 91, 255, 257, 258
test-retest reliability, 62 n.2, 87
theoretical bases, 69, 70, 72-77, 80-81, 93, 127
thermal imaging and, 156-157
validity relative to other tests, 27 n.3, 28 n.5, 67, 69, 79, 89, 253
zone comparison test, 255-256, 304, 311, 316, 318
Computer voice stress analyzer, 167-168
Computerized linguistic analysis, 165
Computerized scoring systems, 64 n.12, 256
accuracy, 209, 217, 298, 299-300, 318-320, 330
algorithm development, 302-318
artifact detection and removal, 306, 319
AXCON, 316-317
Bayesian approach, 315, 319, 366
Chart Analysis, 316-317
comparative evaluation of algorithms, 299, 316-318, 320
Computerized Polygraph System, 298, 299, 302-307, 309-312, 313-314, 316-320
cost-benefit tradeoffs, 195-197
data-mining technique, 299, 301, 312
data used, 300, 302, 303-305, 319, 372
disclosure for assessment, 20
discriminant analysis, 97, 299, 300, 301, 302-303, 309, 310, 313, 314-315, 319, 367
evaluation of demeanor effects with, 52
feature evaluation and selection, 311-314
feature extraction, 307-310, 316, 319
Identifi, 316-317
logistic regression, 299, 300, 301, 302, 303, 309, 312, 313-314, 315, 319, 367
neural network models, 303, 309, 313, 367, 370
PolyScore algorithms, 196, 298, 299, 302-311, 312-320
quantitative assessment of studies, 341
relevance for TES, 303, 318-319, 320
signal processing, 305-307
signal transformation, 306-307, 312, 319
statistical analysis, 217, 311
statistical models for classification and prediction, 298-299, 300-302, 313-316
of thermal imaging, 157
validation strategies, 196, 201, 209, 312-313, 316-317
Concealed information technique, 257
accuracy, 124-125, 127-128, 134-135, 136, 138, 139, 346
brain function analysis, 159-160, 161-162, 175
computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168
countermeasures, 143
expectation bias and, 90
inferences from, 104 n.9
legal issues, 103 n.1, 204-205
meta-analyses of laboratory studies, 152 n.1
peak-of-tension test, 168, 258, 341
quantitative assessment of studies, 136, 341
social interaction effects, 104 n.15, 105 n.17
theoretical basis, 69, 70, 75-76, 93, 103 n.5, 127-128
validity relative to other tests, 27 n.3, 28 n.5, 69, 79
Conditional probabilities, 104 n.11
Conditioned response theory, 73, 75
Construct validity, 32-33, 52, 66-67, 96, 103 n.3, 117
Control questions, 14-15, 27 n.3, 253, 254-257, 261, 266
Cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation computerized scoring, 195-197
decision making on policies, 61, 95, 190-191, 208-209, 358-363
laboratory studies, 109
quantifying, 61, 180-183, 208-209, 358-363
with suspicious thresholds, 44, 45-46, 183-186, 208
Counterintelligence, defined, 265
Counterintelligence Scope Polygraph testing, 263
Countermeasures
access to research on, 118
and accuracy measurements, 31, 36, 66, 78
and adverse personnel actions, 140, 146
biofeedback and conditioning paradigms, 141
brain functional analyses and, 162, 174, 175
defined, 28 n.6
detection of, 22, 144, 145, 147
drug and alcohol effects, 139, 142
effectiveness of, 4-5, 101, 139-148, 151, 216
format of test and, 140, 141, 143
generalizability of studies, 143-144
incentives for use, 145-146, 192, 193
innocent examinees’ use of, 140, 145, 151
limitations of research, 4-5, 69, 143-144
mental strategies, 139, 140-141, 143, 147
physical strategies, 139, 140, 143, 144, 289
physiological indicators of, 144
posthypnotic suggestions as, 143
qualitative assessment of research, 332
quantitative assessment of research, 139-148, 151
rationale, 140-142
research questions, 66, 68, 145-147, 231
in security screening, 147, 148, 151
and sensitivity of polygraph, 22, 36, 86, 87
training, 143, 144, 146, 147, 151
Criminal investigations, 14, 254.
See also Specific-incident examinations
Criterion validity
confounding factors, 66
defined, 31
empirical evidence of, 324.
See also Systematic review of validation studies
measurement. See Accuracy measurement;
Accuracy of polygraph testing
as value added, 58-60
D
Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 67, 98, 103 n.1, 202, 206, 207, 210, 211 n.9, 294
Deception detection.
See also Alternative techniques and technologies;
Demeanor
decision criteria for judging, 1-2, 157
early case studies, 295-296
evaluation of methods for, 221-222
examinee’s expectation of, 20, 22, 54, 55, 59, 79-80, 90-91
overall assessment, 170
psychophysiological, 52
research recommendations, 225-226, 228-229
sensitivity and specificity of indicators, 38, 39
specific issue, 150
training observers, 166
Decision analysis of polygraph security screening, 358-363
Decision theory, 46
Decision thresholds.
See also Costbenefit tradeoffs in interpretation
accuracy measurement and, 40, 42-49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.9, 95, 104-105 n.16, 129-130, 148, 354-357
base rate of deception and, 46, 48, 50, 148, 183, 184, 354-357
empirical variation in, 47-49
federal agency differences in, 186-187
“friendly,” 42, 44, 45-46, 186-187, 188, 219
receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and, 43-45, 46, 49, 62-63 nn.7&9
“suspicious,” 44, 45-46, 183-186, 218-219
Defense Intelligence Agency, 263
Demeanor
automated measurements of, 164
and autonomic responses, 82
combined with polygraph, 201
defined, 163
ethical and legal issues, 176
of examinee, 11, 16, 52, 64 n.12, 82, 155, 175-176
of examiner, 256
facial and body movement, 164, 174
linguistic analysis, 165-166
theoretical limitations, 175
thermal imaging techniques, 156-157, 163, 174
voice stress analysis, 166-168, 170, 175
Demographically distinct subgroups, 331-332
Detective Comics, Inc. (DC Comics), 295
Diagnostic models. See Medical diagnostic models
Dichotomization theory, 75, 77
Direct investigation, 155, 170-173, 176, 201
DISC theory, 294
DNA profiling, 85, 104 n.12, 203-204, 207
Drug Enforcement Administration, 263
Drug screening, 53-54, 171, 264
Drugs affecting detection of deception, 86, 138-139, 142, 150
E
Electrodermal activity, 288, 303-304, 328
accuracy, 162
countermeasures, 143
differential responses to stimuli, 153 n.5
drug effects on, 138-139
factor analysis of indices of, 100
functional brain imaging combined with, 158-159
lability, 134-135
research approaches, 110, 116-117
skin conductance responses, 82-83, 110, 134-135, 158-159, 288, 302-304, 305, 308, 309, 313, 314, 317, 328
skin resistance measurements, 83, 110, 288, 317, 328
traditional measures in polygraph testing, 81, 155
Electroencephalograms (EEGs), 160-162
Empirical error
contextual factors, 87-88
endogenous factors, 86-87
in inferences from tests, 85-91
Employee screening polygraph.
See also U.S. Department of Energy security screening examination
criteria for judging answers, 1-2
random vs. fixed-interval, 53-54
reexamination/rescreening, 112
Equivariance binormal model, 180, 342-344
Error. See Empirical error
Event-related potentials, 155, 160-162, 175
Event-specific investigations. See Specific-incident examinations
Examinees. See Polygraph examinees
Examiners. See Polygraph examiners
Executive Order 12958, 268
Expectancy effects, 20, 22-23, 42, 79, 83, 89-91, 104-105 n.16, 115, 129, 130, 150, 158, 204
Expert scientific testimony, admissibility standards, 12, 67, 98, 103 n.1, 201-203, 206, 207, 293-294, 296
F
Facial and body movement, 164
Factor analytic methods, 96
Fallacy of the transposed conditional, 85
False negatives
accuracy and, 36, 38, 67, 180-181, 182
base rate of deception and, 180-181
computerized scoring and, 311, 316, 317
corrective measures, 33
costs of, 189, 190, 192, 193, 219, 220-221
decision threshold and, 46, 60, 61, 109, 180-181, 219
examiner expectancy and, 90
parallel combined testing and, 367-368
populations likely to show results as, 31, 76
pretest interview and, 35
serial combination tests and, 369
False positives
accuracy and, 35, 36, 61, 62 n.6, 67, 68, 69, 122-123, 180-181, 182, 185, 211 n.2, 334, 354-357
base rate of deception and, 180-182, 185, 211 n.2, 354-357
computerized scoring and, 311, 316, 317
corrective measures, 33
costs of, 6, 54, 60, 179, 185-186, 188, 189, 190-191, 192, 193, 218-219, 220
decision threshold and, 46, 60, 61, 109, 180, 183-184, 185, 218-219
examiner expectancy and, 90
and false confessions, 56
index, 38, 39, 61, 62 n.6, 122-123, 180-185, 211 n.2, 334, 354-357
parallel combined testing and, 368
physiological conditions that produce, 87, 93
populations likely to show results as, 31, 87
pretest interview and, 35
ROC curve and, 46, 180, 316, 360
serial combination tests and, 369
Federal Bureau of Investigation base rate of deceptive individuals, 184, 187
basis for adverse personnel decisions, 36-37
“failures” of polygraph tests, 62 n.5
polygraph screening test, 219, 263-264, 274, 281-282, 284, 293
Webster Commission recommendations, 188-189, 190, 220
Federal Rules of Evidence, 67
Field research
accuracy of, 125-126, 148, 350-353
biases in, 304-305
defined, 328
desirable elements, 108-109
experimental, 108, 109-111, 116-117, 120, 316, 328-329
meta-analysis, 333-334
observational, 108-109, 112-116
planned approaches, 116-117
qualitative assessment, 108, 109-120, 304-305, 316, 328-329, 341-342
quantitative assessment, 125-126, 350-353
Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, 362
Forensic science
mainstream science and, 206-208
Frye v. United States, 98, 201, 202, 206, 293-294
Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), 155, 158-160, 174-175
Funding/sponsorship issues, 110, 119-120, 329, 340-341, 347-351
G
Game theory, 359
Gender of examinees, and accuracy, 136-137
Generalizability
base rate of deception and, 153 n.4
between examiners, 132
of laboratory studies, 109, 143, 204
of specific-incident testing to security screening, 109
theory, 96
H
Habituation, 76
Hamre Commission recommendations, 8, 189-190, 220
Handwriting identification, 201, 202
I
Inferences from polygraph tests
countermeasures detection, 22
empirical error sources, 85-91, 92
fallacy of the transposed conditional, 85
legal issues, 204-206
logical issues, 84-85
noncooperation and, 22
in preclearance screening, 23-24, 37
scoring method and, 64 n.12
subtractive method, 84, 104 n.9, 108, 110
Integrity testing, 172-173, 177 n.2
Intelligence, defined, 266
Internal consistency, 30
Interpretation of responses.
See also Cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation;
Polygraph charts;
Scoring polygraph tests
deception indicated opinion, 84, 266, 276
endogenous error sources, 86-87
no deception indicated opinion, 266-267, 282
no opinion, 49-50, 262, 267, 276
no significant response opinion, 38, 77, 262, 283
significant response opinion, 35, 38, 77, 84, 256-257, 262
theoretical issues, 80, 81, 94
unresolved issues opinion, 268
Wen Ho Lee investigation, 30
Interviews and interrogations, 11, 173
Irrelevant questions, 78, 254, 256
Item response theory, 96
J
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 97, 196, 298, 303, 307, 309, 312-313, 318
L
Laboratory research, 311, 328, 333, 340-342
accuracy of, 121-125, 148, 150, 344-349, 350, 351
cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation, 109
extrapolation to field use, 126-130, 132-133, 143-144
qualitative assessment, 108, 109, 120, 328
quantitative assessment, 60, 121-125, 148, 305, 344-349, 350, 351
Lafayette Computerized Polygraph System, 261, 298, 303
Legal issues
admissibility of polygraph evidence, 12, 67, 201-208, 211 n.9, 293-294
clinical prediction of violence, 207-208
forensic science, 203-204, 206-208, 210
prosecutor’s fallacy, 85, 104 n.13
Lie detection.
See also Deception detection
revealing truth distinguished from, 21-23
ritualized techniques across cultures, 18-20
scientific approach, 65-69
Local commuting area, 266
Los Alamos National Laboratory, 280
M
Machiavellianism, 135
Magnetic resonance imaging, 157-158.
See also Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)
Marston, William Moulton, 99, 291, 292-296
Medical diagnostic models
accuracy measurement, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 47, 48, 49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.11, 66, 84, 95, 127, 149
base rate of deception and, 48, 50, 149
combining information sources in, 197, 364-372
dimensionality problem, 366, 371
expert systems, 369-372
independent parallel testing, 199, 367-368
independent serial testing, 199-200, 368-369
quantitative assessment, 128-130, 149
statistical classification systems, 199, 365-369
Meta-analyses
deception detection from demeanor, 163-164, 166
of direct investigation techniques, 171, 172-173
file-drawer effect, 118-119
of laboratory studies of polygraph accuracy, 152 n.1
rationale for excluding, 107-108, 333-334
Methylphenidate (Ritalin), 138-139, 142
Modified general question test, 255, 304, 311, 316, 318
Motivational effect on accuracy, 127-128, 144, 147, 150, 152 nn.1&2, 159-160, 170
N
National Agency Check, 265
National Defense Authorization Act, 279 n. 2
National Institute for Truth Verification, 167, 168
National Institutes of Health, 2, 108, 111
National Reconnaissance Office, 263, 264
National Research Council, 291, 292, 293, 296
National Security Agency, 14, 254, 263, 264
Naval Criminal Investigative Agency, 263, 264
Negative predictive value, 39
O
Oak Ridge nuclear facility, 296
Office of Personnel Management, 281
Office of Technology Assessment, 12, 100, 209
Orienting theory, 72, 75-79, 93, 103 n.4, 127-128
P
P300 amplitude, 161-162
Pavlovian conditioning, 75, 287
Percentage correct index, 31, 43, 46, 49-50, 63 n.8, 129-130, 148
Personality differences of individuals, 135-136, 150
Personnel Assurance Program, 267, 268
Personnel Security Assurance Programs, 267, 268
Personnel security clearance, 267
Physiological differences of individuals, 94, 134-135, 150
Pneumographs, 81
Polygraph (instrument)
Axciton, 298, 303-304, 305, 316-318
reliability and validity, 33
secrecy about design, 20, 105 n.18, 305
sensors, 13, 81, 261, 267, 288, 289, 303-304
Polygraph charts.
See also Interpretation of responses;
Scoring polygraph charts
inferences about truthfulness or deception, 22
validity assessment from, 22, 28 n.7, 34
Polygraph examinations, 70-71
admissibility in court, 12, 67, 201-203, 293-294
combining other information sources with, 7-8, 25, 197, 199-201, 209-210, 220, 364-372
components, 16-17
and false confessions, 28 n.9
as forensic science, 203-204, 210
“friendly” vs. “unfriendly,” 17, 22
future potential, 213
logs, 116
mystique, 18, 20-21, 107, 294-296
opposition to, 12, 58, 291, 292-293
origins and history, 291-296
posttest interview, 55
pretest interviews, 16, 34, 54, 55, 62 n.2, 71, 130, 253, 256, 257, 260, 261, 282
procedures and standards, 19, 30, 93, 194-195, 277-278
and public confidence in national security, 57
purposes of, 21-24.
See also Uses of polygraph examinations
questioning/interrogations. See Polygraph tests
report, 267
right to decline, 260
scientific issues, 2-3, 21-24, 65-69, 99-102, 212-213
sequential approach, 95, 304-305
Polygraph examinees.
See also Countermeasures
beliefs about polygraph accuracy, 20, 22, 54, 55, 59, 79-80, 90-91
fear of being falsely accused, 38, 73, 74, 100, 127
guilty complex, 86
legal representation, 275
moral values of, 255
noncooperation, 22
orienting response, 72, 127-128
physiological/medical conditions affecting responses, 86-87
privacy and employee rights, 274-277
sociocultural group identity, 136-137, 150
stigmatized individuals, 88-89, 101, 104 n.15, 109, 136-137
variability within and between, 30, 70, 79-80, 82, 93, 287, 288, 311
Polygraph examiners
administering, 262
expectation bias, 22-23, 42, 79, 83, 89-90, 104-105 n.16, 130, 138, 204
interaction with examinees, 22-23, 72, 81, 83, 87-89, 101, 130, 136, 197, 256
inter-rater reliability, 30, 33, 96, 298, 304, 341
latitude in question construction, 30, 68, 71, 78-79, 83, 149
peer, 262
quality control reviewer, 262, 283
skills, 20, 37, 52, 81, 143, 197, 256, 317, 320
training and certification, 16, 19, 33, 119, 133-134, 137, 144, 149, 260, 263, 277-278
variation in decision thresholds, 47-48
Polygraph research.
See also Field research;
Laboratory research;
Quantitative assessment of polygraph testing
and adoption of new technologies and practices, 97-98
biases in, 304-305.
See also Expectancy effects;
Selection bias
“bogus pipeline” technique, 55, 56, 59-60, 110
case-control studies, 113, 114, 115
case series, 113
case studies, 113
classified, 118, 148, 230, 231
clinical trials analogy, 111
comparative analyses, 329
cross-sectional surveys, 113
data collection process, 113-114
desirable qualities, 110-111, 112-113, 223-224
on deterrence, 53-54
experimental studies, 109-111
field studies, 108, 109-115, 305, 328, 333, 340-342
funding/sponsorship issues, 110, 119-120, 329, 340-341, 347-350
mystique of lie detection and, 19, 20, 21, 111
observational studies, 112-115
obstacles to, 110-111
“open science” strategy, 99, 148, 296
organizational emphasis, 229-231
progress in, 213
prospective cohort studies, 112, 114
See also Qualitative assessment of polygraph testing
recommendations, 226-231
relationship to other scientific fields, 95-96
retrospective cohort studies, 112-113
on scoring polygraph charts, 97-98, 298-321
social context and structure of, 98-99
systematic review of. See Systematic review of validation studies
theoretical development. 2-3, 79-82, 92-95, 99, 102, 108, 109, 213
variables of interest, 109-110
Polygraph tests
control question. See Comparison question technique
guilty knowledge technique. See Concealed information technique
inferences from, 83-91
known-solution, 258
physiological responses, 13-14, 71-83
purposes of, 21-23
relevant questions. See Relevant/irrelevant question technique
sequence of questions, 254, 261-262
stimulation test, 27 n.4, 91, 255, 257, 258
See also Comparison question technique;
Concealed information technique
theoretical basis. See Theories of polygraph examination
validity assessment. See Validity of polygraph examinations
value of, 11
Positive predictive value, 38, 39, 58-60
Positron emission tomography (PET), 155, 157-158
Predictive validity, 31, 58-60
Preemployment/preclearance screening, 11-12
accuracy measurement, 36-37, 60
background checks, 171
difficulties with, 2, 150, 216
federal policies, 62 n.4
graphology, 169
inferences from detection of deception, 23-24, 28 n.8, 216
pilot studies, 132
Propanolol, 138
Psychological set theory, 74-75, 77
Psychological testing and measurement, 95-96, 103 n.8
Psychometric methods and theory, 96
Psychopathic personalities, 136
Psychophysiological responses
alternative technologies, 80
computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168
conditioned response theory, 73, 287
conflict theory, 72-73
controversies, 13
correlation among, 82
“emergency reaction” hypothesis, 82
empirical limitations of research, 80, 81-83, 92
“fight-or-flight” reaction, 82
gender differences, 137
inter- and intra-individual differences in, 70, 79-80, 82, 93, 134-135, 287, 288
in nondeceptive states, 32
psychological set and related theories, 74-75
relative importance of, 37, 51
test conditions and, 17, 28 n.5, 31, 42
theoretical basis, 13, 32, 67, 71-83, 287
unresolved theoretical issues, 32, 79-81, 98
“white-coat hypertension” phenomenon, 17
PsycInfo, 324
Publication bias, 149
Pygmalion effect, 89
Q
Qualitative assessment of polygraph testing, 304, 305.
See also Systematic review of validation studies
experimental field studies, 108, 109-111, 116-117, 120, 316, 328-329
laboratory studies, 108, 109, 120, 328
observational field studies, 108-109, 112-116
overview, 107-109
planned approaches, 116-117
pro-polygraph bias, 117-118
unscientific decision making, 117-119
Quality control programs, 194-195, 198, 209
Quantitative assessment of polygraph testing
accuracy measurement methods, 43-44, 50-51, 342-344
characteristics of studies, 340-342
diagnostic models, 7, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 128-130
expectancy effects, 22-23, 158
extrapolation of laboratory research to field use, 126-130, 132-133, 143-144, 213-214
field studies, 125-126, 350-353
internal validity and salience ratings, 108, 329, 341-342, 346, 352-353
laboratory studies, 60, 121-125, 148, 305, 344-349, 350, 351
limitations of research, 4, 64 n.13, 94, 143-144, 213-214
overall accuracy, 3-4, 24, 148-149
screening studies, 130-134, 149-150
special populations and conditions, 134-139
specific-incident examinations, 24, 121-130
studies included in, 213, 335-338, 340-342
variability in accuracy estimates, 150
Questioning. See Polygraph tests
R
Racially stigmatized groups, 88, 136, 137
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves
computerized scoring and, 316
and decision thresholds, 43-45, 46, 49, 62-63 nn.7&9
estimation from equivariance binormal model, 180, 342-344
and false positive rates, 180, 316
maximum likelihood estimation, 344
parallel combined tests, 368
screening criteria for systematic review and, 325, 340
trapezoidal estiamte, 344, 350
Reid (modified general questions) test, 255, 304, 311, 316, 318
Relevant/irrelevant technique
contextual factors, 87
countermeasures, 153 n.6
inferences from, 104 n.9
nature and sequence of questions, 70-71, 254, 268, 284, 305
physiological responses, 83, 93
pretest interview, 77
principle, 14
probable-lie, 256
quantitative assessment of studies, 341
scoring, 318
theoretical bases, 72, 73, 77, 78, 93, 103 nn.3&5
validity relative to other techniques, 253
Reliability
inter-rater, 30, 33, 96, 298, 304, 341
test-retest, 29-30, 33, 62 nn.1&2, 87
Reproducibility of results, 253
Research recommendations. See Polygraph research
deterring and detecting security threats, 225-226, 228-229
expansion of effort, 8-9, 225, 228-229
potential payoff, 229
program organization, 9, 229-231
Respiratory activity, 81, 83, 155, 289, 303, 306, 308, 309, 313, 314
Ritalin (methylphenidate), 138-139, 142
S
Scientific Assessment Technologies, 298, 302
Scientific basis for polygraph testing.
See also Polygraph research;
Theories of polygraph examination;
Validity of polygraph examinations
adequacy of, 67-68, 101, 212-213
scientific approach, 65-69
Scoring polygraph charts.
See also Computerized scoring systems
averaging multiple examiners, 330
decision thresholds, 40, 47-48, 49
diagnostic model, 40
examiner interpretation, 1, 13, 14, 52, 253, 255, 256, 283, 298, 302, 320
factor analysis, 100
features used in, 308
generalizability to other examiners, 132
global, impressionistic, 103 n.6, 254
numerical, 255-257, 260, 298, 309
pretest phase and, 320
quality control procedures, 194-195, 209
quantitative assessment of studies, 341
reliability, 328
repeatability of, 30
TES, 77
weighting of channels, 103 n.6
Security screening.
See also Employee screening polygraph;
Preemployment/preclearance screening;
U.S. Department of Energy security screening examination;
other federal agencies
accuracy of, 6, 31, 34-35, 36-37, 48, 60, 66, 95, 130-134, 148, 153 n.7, 215-216
base rate of deception in, 5, 50, 109, 130, 153 n.4, 181-182, 183-184
combining information sources in, 7-8, 197, 199-201, 209-210, 217, 364-372
criterion of truthfulness, 215
decision making on policies, 61, 95, 190-191, 358-363
decision threshold for, 5-6, 46-47, 50, 183-184, 218-219
difficulties with, 2, 5-6, 215-216, 218
expert systems used in, 200-201, 217, 369-372
federal agencies’ practices and requirements, 62 n.4, 263-264
focused situations, 193-194, 205, 209
generalizability of specific-incident testing to, 109, 215
inferences from detection of deception, 23-24, 28 n.8
initiation of, 296
literature on, 108, 109, 114, 334, 341
minor security violations and, 34-36, 53, 130, 132, 184
parallel combination test, 199, 367-368
purposes, 23, 62 n.3, 179, 358-359
Q clearance, 281
questioning techniques, 14, 15, 23, 152-153 n.4, 192-194, 254, 255, 256, 280
random vs. fixed-interval, 53-54, 359
recent policy recommendations on, 187-190, 220-221
reexamination/rescreening, 112, 133
serial combination test, 199-200, 209, 368-369
techniques, 23, 25, 71, 192-194
tradeoffs in interpretation, 5-6, 181-183
Selection bias, 112, 113, 114, 115, 316, 317, 320
Self-monitoring, 135
Seven-Position Numerical Analysis Scale, 302
Shepard, John F., 292-293
Signal detection theory, 38, 40, 42, 61, 62-63 n.7, 104-105 n.16, 342-343
Signal value of stimuli, 75, 77
Social interaction effects, 22-23, 72, 81, 83, 87-89, 91, 94, 101, 104 n.15, 150, 256, 370
Social psychology research, 163
Social Science Citation Index, 324
Sociocultural group identity, 136-137, 150
Special Access Program, 268
Specific-incident examinations, 1, 12
accuracy measurement, 31, 34, 48, 60, 352
base rate of deception in, 130, 181, 184
countermeasures, 147
decision threshold in, 184
generalization of data to security screening, 109
quality of research, 114
quantitative assessment of studies, 121-130, 135, 341
scientific evidence from, 2, 334
scoring based on, 303
techniques, 14, 15, 23, 24, 25, 70-71, 254, 255, 257
theoretical basis, 80, 127-128
tradeoffs in interpretation, 181, 184
Standardization issues, 90, 91, 104 n.14, 114, 149, 204, 253, 254, 256, 296, 311
Standardized tests, 172-173
Statement validity analysis, 165
Stigma effects, 88-89, 101, 104 n.15, 109, 136-137, 150
Stimulation test, 27n.4, 91, 255, 257, 258
Systematic review of validation studies
committee review, 327-330
contextual analysis, 333-335
critical characterization, 107, 325-330, 340-342
extraction of datasets for ROC analysis, 330-333
initial staff screen, 325-327
integration of results, 333-335
literature search and compilation, 324
question formulation, 323-324
resolution of unresolved issues, 330-331
T
Test of Espionage and Sabotage (TES), 282
scoring, 77, 256, 262, 303, 318-319, 320
standardization, 62 n.2, 91, 104 n.14, 311
technique, 15, 256-257, 261-262
theoretical justification, 77
validity, 134
Theories of polygraph examination.
See also specific theories and accuracy measurement, 38, 40, 42, 46, 61, 62-63 n.7, 109, 127-128, 343-344
comparison question format, 69, 70-71, 72-77, 80-81, 93, 127
concealed information format, 69, 70, 75-76, 93, 103 n.5, 127-128
interpretation of responses and, 80, 81, 94
psychophysiological responses, 13, 32, 67, 71-83, 287
of relevant/irrelevant format, 72, 73, 77, 78, 93, 103 nn.3&5
for security screening, 80-81, 95, 201
specific-incident examinations, 80, 127-128
status of research, 79-82, 92-95, 99, 102, 108, 109
TES, 77
unresolved questions, 32, 79-81, 98, 201
and validity or results, 32
Threat-of-punishment theory, 74, 77
Tradeoffs. See Cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation
Trapezoidal estimate, 344, 350
U
Unified test theory, 96
United States v. Scheffer, 201-202
Urinalysis, 264
U.S. Department of Defense, 264
decision threshold for security screening, 186-187, 219
U.S. Department of Defense Polygraph Institute, 19, 49, 55, 99, 119, 120, 134, 135, 137, 156-157, 168, 230, 256, 260, 278, 299, 302, 303, 317, 330, 351
U.S. Department of Energy security screening examination, 15.
See also Test of Espionage and Sabotage
Accelerated Access Authorization Program, 265, 269, 272
access authorization, 265, 274
advance notice of, 274
adverse personnel action, 197, 198, 265
confidentiality of records, 276-277
consent requirements, 275
eligibility evaluation, 266
examiner-examinee interactions, 90
Hamre Commission
recommendations, 8, 189-190, 220
information provided prior to, 34-35, 275-276
issues covered, 259
legal representation during, 275
methods and procedures, 197-198, 260
Office of Counterintelligence, 266, 273
Office of Independent Oversight and Performance, 269
Office of Security and Emergency Operations, 269, 274
policy changes for laboratory personnel, 189-190, 192, 218-221
positions requiring, 12, 260, 268-269, 270
post-test phase, 260, 262, 282, 284
pretest interview, 34, 260, 261
privacy and employee rights, 274-277
reconsideration rights, 274
refusal to take, 271-272
standards, 277-278
topics within scope of, 270-271
training of examiners, 260, 277-278
type of test, 34, 62 n.2, 256, 260
uses of results, 260, 272-274, 276
waivers, 269
U.S. Secret Service, 166, 263, 264
Criminal Investigations, 302
Uses of polygraph examinations, 11-12, 23-24.
See also Employee screening polygraph;
Preemployment/preclearance screening;
Security screening;
Specific-incident examinations
and accuracy measurement, 22-23, 24, 33-37, 40, 46-47, 48, 60-61, 66, 101
base rate and, 192
cost-benefit tradeoffs in
interpretation and, 40, 46-47, 48, 179-194
deception detection, 23
and decision thresholds, 183-187
federal agencies, 187-190, 259, 263-264, 267, 272-274
as interrogation procedure, 17, 23
legal context, 67, 98, 103 n.1, 201-208, 293-294
in personnel decisions, 197, 198, 200
policy recommendations of federal agencies, 187-190
theoretical issues, 77, 80-81, 95, 127-128
Utility of polygraph examinations
beliefs of examinees and, 6, 19, 22, 52, 54, 56, 61, 176, 199, 214
decision threshold and, 183-187
deterrence, 6-7, 25, 51, 52, 53-54, 58, 61, 112, 176, 186, 187, 225-226, 228-229, 359
eliciting admissions and confessions, 6, 22, 25, 51, 52, 54-56, 57, 60, 61, 91, 115, 187, 214-215
false confessions and, 28 n.9
for investigative purposes, 22, 25
public confidence in national security, 51, 58, 214
validity and, 22, 51-58, 60-61, 63 n.11, 111, 201, 214-215
V
Validity of polygraph examinations.
See also Construct validity;
Criterion validity
and admissibility in court, 12, 67, 98, 201-208, 293-294
combined with other information sources, 59, 198-199, 209-210, 371
cross-validation of combined screening strategies, 371
disputes about physiological responses, 13-14, 67-68
evidence of, 3-4, 66, 67-68, 213-215
incremental, 59, 198-199, 209-210
internal, 108, 129, 329, 341-342, 346, 352-353
mystique of lie detection and, 18, 20, 21, 52, 54, 56, 58, 199
pretest interview and, 16
questions for assessing, 222-223
reference points, 58-60
review of research. See Systematic review of validation studies
situational effects and, 17, 28 n.5, 31, 42, 61, 66, 83, 89, 101
standardization and, 104 n.14
theory and, 32
and utility, 22, 51-58, 60-61, 63 n.11, 111, 201
Value of polygraph examinations. See Utility of polygraph examinations
Verification bias, 129
W
Wackenhut Security, 282
Walker, John Anthony, 53