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5. MANUFACTURING , C OSTS , AND PRODUC IBILITY Manu factur ing p lans o f the maj or automob ile c ompanie s for 1 9 7 5 - 1976 sys tems are not firm at this s tage . Changes wil l almos t certainly be made between now and the s tar t of produc tion . However , each c ompany has taken p o s i t ive s teps toward implementa t ion o f their bes t es timate o f the components tha t migh t be introduced for 1 9 7 5 and 1 97 6 . Schedules are comp r e s sed and s ignif icant risks are invo lved . Consequently mo s t companie s have more than one al ternat ive plan for the emi s s ion- c ontrol sys tem for thes e model year s . In s ome c as e s , manufac turers have des igned and / or made too l ing for al ternat ive configurat ions . 5. 1 Manufac turabil i ty o f Several Pr opo sed Engine Sys tems Several types of engines that migh t be pro duced in the 1 9 76 model year have been evaluated from the view p o int o f manufac turabil ity and co s t s . These eng ines are : 1 ) the dua l -cataly s t sy s tem proposed by mo s t manufac turers , 2 ) the d ie s e l , 3) the Wanke l , 4) the three va lve s tratif ied- charge , and 5) a feedback- control led sy s tem with elec tronic fue l inj e c t ion and a three-way catalys t . 5.1.1 The Dual -Catalys t Sys tem In response to Cal ifornia and federal regulations over the year s , the automo tive indus try has progre s s ively added to the emi s s ions contro l devices on au tomobile s . Due in par t to a determined e f fort to pre s e rve as much of the techno logy of the carbure ted interna l - c ombus t ion eng ine as pos s ible , the approache s to emi s s ions c on trol have cons is ted of add-ons and rel at ively minor eng ine mod i f ic a t ions . Al though the var ious c ompanies have worked independently , there have been many s imi lar i t ies in approach , and the typ ical p a ttern of hardware addi t ion is pres ented in Table 5 - l . Beg inning with the 1 97 6 model year , th is - 87 - Digitized byGoogle
Table 5 - l Chrono logy o f Deve lopment o f t he Dua l -C a t a lys t Sys tem Model Year Emi s s i on Hardware Add ed 1966 a) PCV Va lve 1968 a) Fuel-Evap oration C ont r o l Sys t em 1970 a) Retarded I gni t i on T iming b) Decrea s ed Compres s ion Rat i o c) Inc re a s ed A i r / F u e l Rati o d) Transmi s s i on-C ontr o l Sys t em 1972 a) Anti -D i e s e l S o l enoi d Va lve b) Thermo s tat i c Air Valve c) Choke-heat Bypas s 1973 a) Exhau s t -Gas Rec irculation b) Air - Inj ec t i on Reac tor c) Ind u c t i on-Hard ened Va lve S eat s d) S park Advance C ontrol e) A i r Pump 1 9 74 a) Prec i s ion Cams , Bores , and Pis tons Mod e l Year Emi s s i on Hardware-Like ly Configuration 1 975 a) Proportional E xhau s t -Gas Rec ircu lation b) C arbure tor with A l t i t ud e Compensat ion c) Air /Fuel Prehea t e r d) E le c t r ic Choke e) E l ec tronic I gn i t ion f) Impr oved T iming C ontrol g) Oxid i z ing C a t a lytic C onverter h) Pe l l e t Charge i) Increa s ed C oo l ing Sys t em j) Improved Und erhood Material s k) B ody Revi s ions Model Year Mo s t Common Configura t i on 1976 a) NO Catalytic C onverter , 2 requi red X b) E l ec t ronic Emi s s ions C ontrol c) S ensors - 88 - Digitized byGoogle
sys tem wi l l inc lude bo th oxida t ion and reduc t ion catalys ts ; thus i t is termed the dua l - catalys t sy s tem. Th is sys tem is shown schema t ical ly in F igure 3 - 1 . The corres ponding increases in s ticker pr ice as soc iated with the s e hardware add itions are detailed in Table 5 - 2 and s ummar ized in Table 5 - 3 . According to the s e es timates , the additional price in crease o f 1 9 7 6 mode l s over tho se of 1 9 7 5 is about $ 134 . 00 , or near ly the same as the increment for the preceding year . At th is t ime it s ti l l appears pos s ible for the manufac turers to mas s - produce sys tems s imi l ar to that shown in F igure 3- 1 for the ir 1 976 model s . However , unt il the sys tems show more l ike l ihood o f meet ing cer t i f ic a t ion for 1 9 7 6 , the manufac turers are reluc tant to make maj or commi tment s , part icular ly for catalys t s , and much more de lay wil l make these sy s tems techno logic a l ly impos s ib l e for 1 9 7 6 because o f insu f f ic ient lead time . If th is type o f sys tem is to be mas s  produced in the 1 9 76 model year , the fo l lowing mus t have been accom⢠p l ished by mid- 1 9 7 3 : ⢠Freeze des ign for produc t ion ⢠Build cataly t ic conver ter p l ant and l ine ⢠C ommit to p l ant and equipment for s ubs trate ⢠C ommi t to new carbure tor produc t ion des ign ⢠Freeze des ign of early fue l - evaporat ion sy s tem 5.1. 2 Diesel Engine Some l igh t-we igh t die s e l s are currently be ing produced for pas senger cars , mainly in Europe and Japan . However , because it is difficult to make a d iesel eng ine mee t the 1 9 7 6 NO s tandard s , and , X for o ther reasons dis cus s ed in Sec t ion 6 . 1 , there is no ser ious e f for t to deve lop the diesel eng ine for large- scale mas s- product ion as a pass enger- car eng ine . If d ie s e l eng ine s are developed to meet the - 89 - Digitized byGoogle
- TABLE 5 · 2 E s t ima t e s o f S t icker Prices for Emi s s ions Hardware from 1966 Uncontrol led Vehicle to 19 76 Dua l - C a t a lys t Sys tem* 1 2 3 5 Mod e l Va lue Tool ing Dea ler List Exc ise S t icker 4 Year Confisurat ion Added Amort . Marsin Profit Price Tax Price TYPICAL E MI S S IONS HARDWARE 1966 PCV-Crank C a s e 1 . 90 - . 66 . 29 2 . 85 . 15 3 . 00 1968 Fue l Evapor a tion S y s tem 9 . 07 . 45 3 . 30 1 . 43 14 . 25 ⢠75 15 . 00 19 70 Ca rbure tor A/F R a t i o . 61 . 02 . 22 . 10 . 95 . 05 1 . 00 Compre s s ion Ra tio 1 . 24 . 03 . 44 . 19 1 . 90 . 10 2 . 00 Ignit ion T iming . 61 . 02 . 22 . 10 . 95 . 05 1 . 00 "' . 0 Transmis s i on Control S y s tem 2 . 49 . 05 . 88 . 38 3 80 . 20 4 . 00 Total 1 9 70 8 . 00 19 7 1 Anti - D i es e l ing 19 7 2 S o lenoid 3 . 07 . 10 1 . 10 . 48 4 . 75 . 25 5 . 00 0 <6" ;::+ Thermo A ir V a lve 2 . 49 . 05 . 88 . 38 3 . 80 . 20 4 . 00 N. CD Q. rr Choke Hea t By-pa s s 2 . 74 . 05 .97 . 42 4 . 18 . 22 4 . 40 '< C) (A s s embly L ine Tes t s C a l i f ) 0 ( 1 / 10 Volume) . 18 . 20 . 13 . 06 .57 . 03 . 60 & ,...._ Tota l 1 9 7 1 - 7 2 14 . 00 (\)
TABLE 5-2 (Cont ' d ) 1 2 3 Model Value Tool ing Dea ler List Excise5 S ticker Year Confisurat ion Added Amor t . Marsin Pro fit 4 Price Tax Price 1973 OSAC (S park Adv. Control ) . 48 . 15 . 22 . 10 . 95 . 05 1 . 00 Transmiss ion Changes (Some Models ) . 63 - . 22 . 10 . 95 . 05 1 . 00 Induction Hardened Va lve Seats (4 and 6 cyl . ) . 72 . 55 . 44 . 19 1 . 90 . 10 2 . 00 EGR (11- 14t) Exhaus t Rec irculation 5 . 48 . 87 2 . 20 . 95 9 . 50 . so 10 . 00 A ir Pump-�ir Inj ection Sys t em 2 7 . 16 1 . 80 10. 03 4 . 33 43 . 32 2 . 28 45 . 60 (Qua lity Aud it As sembly L ine ) ( 1 / 10 Vol . ) . 23 . 02 . 09 . 04 . 38 . 02 . 40 \D ...... I Tota l 1973 60 . 00 1974 Induction Hardened Va lve Seat V-8 . 72 . 55 . 44 . 19 1 . 90 . 10 2 . 00 Some Proportiona l EGR ( 1 / 10 Vol . @ $5 2 . ) 3 . 21 . 10 1 . 14 . 49 4 . 94 . 26 5 . 20 Precis ion Cams , Bores , and Pistons 2 . 44 . 10 . 88 . 38 3 . 80 . 20 4 . 00 0 cQ ;:::;: N Pretes t Engines (]) 0.. Emiss ions 1 . 80 . 10 . 66 . 29 2 . 85 . 15 3 . 00 0"" '< (Ca l i f . Cata lytic Conver ter C) Sys tem - 1 / 10 Vol . $64 . ) 4 . 02 . 04 1 . 41 . 61 6 . 08 . 32 6 . 40 0 � Total 1974 20 . 60 � rv
TA BLE 5·2 (Cont ' d ) 1 2 3 5 Model Va lue Too l i ng Dea ler List Excise S t icker 4 Year Configura t ion Added Amort . Margin Pro fit Pr ice Tax Price ** 1975 Proport iona l EGR (accel-dece l) 20 . 0 7 - 6 . 95 3 . 00 30 . 02 1 .58 31 . 60 New Des ign Carburetor with A l titude Compensation 7.52 2 . 00 3 . 30 1 . 43 14 . 25 ⢠75 15 . 00 Hot S po t Intake Manifold 2 . 87 . 30 1 . 10 . 48 4 . 75 ⢠25 5 . 00 E lectric Choke (element ) 2 . 67 .50 1 . 10 . 48 4 . 75 . 25 5 . 00 E lectronic Distr ibutor (point les s ) 4 . 35 2 . 00 2 . 20 . 95 9 . 50 .so 10. 00 New Timing Control 1 . 40 .so . 66 . 29 2 . 85 . 15 3 . 00 \0 N Catalytic--Oxidizing- Converter 1 8 . 86 4 . 00 7 . 92 3 . 42 34 . 20 1 . 80 36 . 00 Pe llet Charge 6# @ $2 . 00 / lb 1 2 . 00 1 . 72 4. 75 2 . 05 20 . 5 2 1 . 08 2 1 . 60 Cooling Sys tem Changes 1 . 17 . 10 . 44 . 19 1 . 90 . 10 2 . 00 Underhood Temp . Materials . 63 - . 22 . 10 . 95 . 05 1 . 00 Body Revis ions 0 Welding Presses . 67 . 60 . 44 . 19 1 . 90 . 10 2 . 00 <6" ;::+ N. Assembly Line Changes . 13 .so . 22 . 10 . 95 . 05 1 . 00 CD Q. rr '< End o f Line Tes t Go-No Go 1 . 85 . 05 . 66 . 29 2 . 85 . 15 3 . 00 C) 0 Qua lity Emiss ion Tes t 1 . 22 . 05 . 44 . 19 1 . 90 . 10 2 . 00 & ,...._ Tota l 19 75 138 . 20 (\)
TABLE 5 - 2 { Cont ' d ) 1 2 3 5 Mod e l Va lue Too l ing Dea l er Lis t Exc i s e S t icker 4 Year Confi�ur a t ion Added Amor t , Mar�in Pro f it Price Tax Price 1 9 7 6 MOS T COMMON CONF IGURATION 19 76 2 NO C a t a ly t ic Conver t e r s 2 2 . 00 2 . 76 8.58 3 . 71 3 7 . 05 1 . 95 39 . 00 X 2 2 . 00 2 . 76 8.58 3 . 71 3 7 . 05 1 . 95 39 . 00 E l e c tronic Contr o l 2 8 . 00 3 . 75 1 1 . 00 4 . 75 47 . 50 2 . 50 5 0 . 00 S e nsors 3 . 00 . 81 1 . 32 . 57 5 . 70 . 30 6 . 00 Total 1976 1 34 . 00 No t e s to F i�ure 1. E i ther v a l ue added or hardware c o s t , inc lud ing ma te r i a l , labor overhe ad and G & A. \D 2. Too l ing and equipment amo r t i zed over three years . w 3. A s 2 2% o f s e l l ing price . 4, As 10% o f l i s t pr ice . 5. A s 5% o f s t i cker p r i c e . Co s t s are the avera ge for the various car s iz e s a nd produc t ion vo lume for e a ch s i ze . * E s t ima tes b a s e d on 1 9 7 2 d o l la r s 0 c.O" ** ;:::;: Propor t iona l EGR c o s t s were ' ad j u s te d ba s ed on recent d a t a i'j " CD Q. CY '< CJ 0 �� rv
TABLE 5 - 3 S umma ry o f S ticker Prices for Emi s s ions Hardware from 1966 Uncontro l led Ve hicle to 1 9 7 6 Dua l -Ca ta lys t Sys tem Year S t icker Price Increas e C umulati ve Price 1966 $ 3 . 00 $ 3 . 00 1968 15 . 00 1 8 . 00 1970 8 . 00 2 6 . 00 1971-72 14 . 00 40 . 00 1973 60 . 00 100 . 00 1 9 74 2 0 . 60 120 . 60 1975 13 8 . 2 0 25 8 . 80 1976 134 . 00 3 92 . 80 1 9 7 2 D o l lars - 94 - Digitized byGoogle
1 976 emis s ion l eve l s , the emi s s ion contro l wil l probab ly be largely ach ieved by eng ine modifications and p o s s ib ly turbocharg irig . Thus , even though the exac t conf iguration is undef ined , the manu fac turabil ity would not d if fer greatly from that o f current die s e l eng ine s , and the maj or manufac turing problems can be identif ied . The engines themselves are quite s imilar to O t to- cyc le p is ton eng ine s , but nec e s s ar i ly heavier to withs tand h igher o perat ing pre s  sure s . The trans fer and a s s emb ly l ine s for these eng ine s are s imilar to tho s e used for exi s t ing gas o l ine eng ines . Fue l - injec t ion pump s and inj e c tion nozz l e s are now be ing produced on very modern mas s - produc t ion equ ipment in England and Germany . Turbochargers have been produced in l ow vo lume for larger engine s , and adaptation to mas s - produc t ion for smal l er eng ines is qui te feas ib l e . Mo s t of the techno logy for mas s produc t ion o f l ight-we ight d ie s e l engines is available but s c at tered , mo s tly in Europe . Th is wide dis pers ion of technology is a ma j or barr ier to the coordinated development of a low- emis s ion d ie s e l eng ine . In additon to changes in the engine and its auxi l l iar ie s , convers ion o f automob iles to d ie s e l power would require relative ly major modificat ions of the frame , s us pens ion , and body in order to accommodate the larger , heavier eng ine . If a d ie s e l eng ine that can mee t the 1976 emis s ion s t andards is deve loped , and if , as as s umed here , i t i s general ly s imilar to pre s ent d ie se l eng ine s , it should be pos s ible to ma s s - produce them for the 1 9 76 model year if the fol l owing have been accomp l ished by mid- 1 97 3 : ⢠Freeze des ign for produc t ion ⢠Arrange for trans fer of European l ight- duty d ie s e l technology ⢠Bu ild .low- volume produc t ion tool ing ⢠Plan for convers ion o f gas o l ine eng ine l ines for diesel eng ine produc t ion ⢠Plan body changes ⢠Arrange for s upply of turbochargers ( if used) - 95 - Digitized byGoogle
5.1.3 Wankel Engine The Wanke l eng ine is be ing ma s s - produced in Japan and s o l d in the Uni ted S tates at comp e t i t ive pr ices . The eng ine is in mas s  product ion in Japan at Toyo Kogyo with Amer ican s a l e s of the Mazda in the United S tates pro j ec ted at 350 , 000 unit s in 1 9 7 5 . A recent announce ment ind icates a produc t ion commitment to the Wanke l eng ine by Gener al Mo tors . There is every indicat ion that a s ub s t ant ial number o f Wanke l  powered au tomob iles wil l be dr iven on United S tates roads in 1 976 . The eng ine has a cos t advantage due to its low we igh t per hor s epower - - about 1 . 5 pounds per hor s epower c omp ared to 4 to 6 pound s for a p is ton- type gas o l ine engine . The manufac tur ing advantages of the Wanke l eng ine are that it can be manufac tured and as semb led on f u l ly automa t ic produc t ion l ine s . The eng ine des ign wil l eventual ly al low a new frame and body des ign that will have many s afety , s p ace , and we igh t advan tages . The imp lementat ion p l an for the General Mo tors Wanke l eng ine has it introduced into the low end o f the l ine , pos s ib ly replac ing bo th the 4- and 6 - cyl inder eng ine s in turn . The optimum c o s t vo l ume per year o f the Wanke l eng ine w i l l be between 450 , 000 and 600 , 000 eng ine s per year . The smal l V- 8s might a l s o f ind a l arger d iameter 2- r o tor Wanke l eng ine as a compe t itor . A 4-ro tor Wanke l eng ine is a more comp lex des ign with longer crank shaf t . Two to four more years wil l be required on its deve lopment before it can be con s idered a competitor to the l arger V- 8 . The manufac tur ing requirement s for the Wanke l eng ine are con centrated around the following s ignificant equipment : a trocho id gr inder for the ro tor hous ing , a ro tary grinder for f inish ing of the end hous ings , an eccentric gr inder for the ro tor , some s pec ial p l at ing equ ipment comb ined with surface- preparation equ ipment , and s pec ial equipment for pre s s ing and s inter ing the ap ex seal s . These machine s are ava i l ab l e today from several machine- too l concerns and can be de l ivered with in one or two year s . Mas s - produc t ion c onvers ions o f the se - 96 - Digitized byGoogle
wil l require be tween one and two year s o f too l ing des ign . An auto ma t ic a s s emb ly l ine and machining l ine comb ined wi l l probably take anywh ere from three to f ive years to deve l o p and ins tal l . The cos t of a future Wanke l - powered car wil l be $ 140 . 00 to $ 8 00 . 00 l e s s per car than the corres pond ing 1 9 7 6 dual-catalys t con f igurat ion ; of th is amount , $ 25 . 00 to $ 7 7 . 00 is due to the eng ine , and the remainder o f the s aving would come from des ign o f a l ighter , shor ter car . 5.1.4 The Carbure ted Three-Valve Stratif ied-Charge Engine Because the three-valve s tratified- charge engine is bas ica l ly an exis t ing carbure ted spark- ignit ion p is ton engine exc e p t for modi f ic a t ions to the cyl inder head , carbure tor , and manifo l d s , it pre s ents relatively few produc t ion prob lems . Manufacture o f a l l c omponents i s based on known and proven techno l ogy . Honda Mo tor Company p l ans to produce this type of sys tem for the ir 1 974 model s in Japan , and they wil l introduce it in the United S tates in 1 97 5 . For ano ther manu fac turer to mass- produce this sys tem in model year 1 9 76 would require the f o l lowing accompl ishments by mid- 1 9 7 3 : ⢠Trans fer techno logy from Honda Motor s ⢠Freeze des ign for produc t ion ⢠Dec is ions made and order s p l aced for new trans fer l ine s for cyl inder heads , manifo ld sys tems , and carburetors ⢠Des ign new camshaf t - produc tion l ine 5. 1.5 A Typical Feedback-C ontro l led Sys tem Because of the ap parent po tent ial for emis s ion reduc t ion and ease of maintenance , wh ich might re sul t wi th fur ther development o f s o me of the feedback- contro l l ed sy s tems , manufac turab il i ty and co s t s o f one o f the s e sy s tems were eval uated . The conf igurat ion s tud ied - 97 - Digitized byGoogle
inc luded elec tronic fuel inj ect ion and a three-way catalys t . As with the dua l-ca taly s t sys tem dis cus sed in Sec t ion 5 . 1 . 1 , this approach re qu ires re l a t ive ly minor changes to exi s ting eng ines , with the conver s ion from carburet ion to fuel inj e c t ion be ing the mo s t s ignif icant . The mini- computer tha t contro l s the inj ec t ion t iming and durat ion is based on known techno logy , and manufac ture of the catalys t is s imilar to that for the dual- cataly s t sys tem . Onc e a s a t i s fac tor i ly durable oxygen s ensor is devel oped , its manu fac ture should be relatively s imple . Produc t ion of this sys tem for the 1 9 76 model year is quite feas ib l e , provided the fo l lowing have been accompl ished by mid- 19 7 3 : ⢠Freeze des ign for product ion ⢠Commit to pump and noz z l e p l ants ⢠Build low- vo lume produc t ion too l ing and veh ic l e s ⢠F ield tes t low-vo lume produc t ion vehic l e s ⢠C ommi t to e lec tronic emis s ions c ontro l uni t p l ant and tool ing 5. 2 Manufac turab i l i ty and C os t s of Automo t ive Exhaus t Catalys ts As d iscu s s ed previou s ly , most manufac turer s p l an to use a dua l- catalytic sys tem for 1 9 7 6 mode l year vehic l e s . From a manu fac tur ing s tandpo int , the problems of produc ing oxid iz ing and re duc ing catalysts are the s ame . The catalys t manufac turers who pro pose pe l l e t ized cataly s t s already have the sources for a s ubs tant ial por t ion of the carrier ma terial s and s ome c apac ity for coating with the ac t ive mater ial . Th is type of catalys t is used extens ively in the petro leum indus try . The manufac tur ing fac i l ities need only to be increased or add it iona l s imi lar type of equ ipment provided . Many companies are ac t ive in the development of catalys ts and s ubs trate s . In add it ion to the long- es tabl ished catalys t and subs tra te manufac turers , General Mo tors has recently d i s c l o s ed that they have developed an extrus ion me thod for making mono l ith catalys t - 98 - Digitized by Coogle
carrier s . They have p l ans for cons truc ting the se fac il i t ie s and have ind ica ted the ir intent ion to become maj or emi s s ion- contro l c a t a ly s t manu fac turer s , inc l ud ing the carr ier conta iners and p o s s ibly the ac t ive ma ter ia l tha t is coa ted on the carr ier . I t has become increas ing ly ap parent tha t 1 9 7 6 c a t a ly s t s wi l l require the use o f l arge quanti ties o f nob le me tal s . The two nob l e me tal s of grea te s t promise are p l a t inum and pal lad ium ; f o r o x id a t ion alone , a car of 350- cub ic - inch d i s p l ac ement wou ld need up to 0 . 1 5 ounce s of e i ther me ta l . Th is f igure would b e doubled if the require ment for the NO cataly s t is s imilar . Thus , there wou ld be a demand X of a s much a s 3 mil l ion ounces for the ini tial ins tal l a t ion o f the cataly tic conver ters required , a figure comparable to the wor ld pro duc t ion in 1 97 0 . Ru thenium is the mo s t promis ing NO x c a talys t , a l  though it is in shor t supply . The recovery o f p l a t inum contained in spent cataly s t del ivered to the door o f precious -me tal ref iner s shou l d b e above 9 9 percent . The e f fic iency o f scavengers in col lec ting s pent nob le-metal c a t a ly s t s is difficul t to e s t imate . S ince the val ue of the rec overed me tal is o f the order of $ 1 5 - 20 per car , e f f ic iency o f scaveng ing shou ld b e high . F o r compar ison , copper is 50¢ per pound and 6 1 percent of s crap copper is recy c l ed in the United S tates . Mo s t base-me ta l cataly s t s are promo ted with prec ious me tal s a t less than 0 . 01 ounce per car . In this case , there is l e s s incent ive for scav engers to c o l lec t resources . I t appears that the required amounts of nob le me tal can be made ava i l able to mee t produc t ion s chedu l e s if dec is ions are made early enough ; pos tponement woul d cause increas ing difficul ties w i th del ivery . Some companie s have de l ayed dec is ions becau se o f the very large commi tment s for opening mine s and having new plants bu il t . - 99 - Digitized by Coogle
5. 3 S ummary o f Co s t s o f Var ious Propo sed Sys tems The rel evant cos t concep t is the to tal c o s t to the Amer ican peop l e o f mee t ing the emi s s ion s tandards , which mu s t be we ighed agains t the co s t of air p o l l u t ion by present automob il es with the ir at tendant human d i s comfor ts and i l lne s s e s . This inc l ude s no t only increas e s in automob ile purchase pr ice s , b u t a l s o increased c o s t s o f fuel , main tenance , repair , and dr iveab i l i ty that re s u l t from po l l u t ion- control devic e s . Of the se cons iderations , it is e s pec ia l ly d i f f icul t to re l a te poorer driveab i l i ty to a c o s t in do l lar s , but the c us tomer pays in o ther way s , e . g . , thro ugh fru s trations and delays . Do l l ar e s ti mates o f the o ther co s t s can be made , al though thes e are nec e s s ar ily imprec i s e because of uncer tainties at this s tage . A s ummary o f the e s t imated increment s in annual cos t s due to emi s s ions - contro l sys tems for several po s s ib l e 1 976 car and eng ine comb inat ions is given in Table 5 - 4 . The eng ine s are tho se that have been di scus sed , and price increment s have been calcul ated for tho se car- eng ine comb inat ions that ap pear feas ible . The s tratified- charge 3 -valve eng ine may eventual ly be developed for l arger car s , but s o far i t s po tent ial fo r l ow emi s s ions has been demons trated only in smal l car s . The co s t increments ar e meas ured from equival ent 1 97 0 mode l car s a s a basel ine , and the se annual c o s t s are amor t ized over a f ive-year period . The s e f igure s inc l ude no t only the d irec t cos t o f emi s s ions hardware , but al so assoc iated co s t s o f rede s ign o f the r e s t of the car to ac commodate the new sy s tems . The se as soc iated co s t s inc lude we ight p ena l ties , wh ich can be qui te s ignif icant in e i ther direc t ion ; e . g . , d ie s e l - powered cars wil l be rel at ive ly heavy , whereas an au tomob ile des igned around the c ompac t Wanke l eng ine can be ap prec iab ly l igh ter than present car s . E s t imates of increased co s t s o f fue l cons ump t ion and ma in tenance due to emi s s ion contro l s are a l s o inc l uded in the f igures in Tab le 5 - 4 . Of the five eng ine s l i s ted , the emis s ion- contro l l ed diesel - 100 - Digitized byGoogle
T a b l e S -4 a To t a l A nnua l Co s t to C u s tome r o f Emi s s i o n C o n tro l s Fo r V a r i o u s Body a nd E ngine C omb ina t ions S t and ard b e S ub compa c t C ompa c t Inte rme d i a te A Inte rme d i a t e B S ta nd a r d Luxury Luxury D ua l -C a t a l y s t S y s tem 127 138 2 15 243 2 63 285 361 D i e s e l wi t h d d E GR 18 - 45 30 -18 36 41 14 Wanke l 86 117 120 1 05 133 198 148 ..... 0 ..... S t ra t i f ie d  Charge 3 -va lve 65 77 67 Fe e d b a ck  contro l le d wi th E l e c tronic Fue l Inj e c t i o n 51 so 85 52 87 97 1 14 0 a <6" Comp a r e d to co s t o f 1 9 7 0 b a s e - l ine car a nd amor t i z e d over five y e a r s . Inc l ud e s i ncreme n t s in fue l ;::+ N. a nd ma intenance co s t s . Fue l - co s t e s t ima t e s we re b a s e d on 40 cent s per g a l lon for a l l fue l s a nd a l l CD Q. ye a r s . rr '< b C) int e rme d i a te A bod i e s are t ho s e interme d i a te s th a t curre nt ly u s e 6 - c y l ind e r e ng i ne s . 0 c interme d i a t e B bod ie s a r e tho s e int e rme d i a te s tha t current l y u s e 8 - c y l inder engine s . & ,...._ d The d i e s e l 4 - cy l ind e r i s u s e d in Comp a c t c a r s and the 6 - cy l ind e r i s u s e d i n Interme d i a te B c a r s . (\)
and the s trat if ied-charge eng ines show promise for fuel ec onomy com p e t i t ive with 1 9 7 0 gas o l ine eng ines . The feedback- contr o l led s park ignit ion eng ine with e lec tronic fuel inj ec t ion promises reasonab l e fue l mi leage , because o f its operat ion near s to ichiometry , but wi l l s ti l l s uffer a 1 0- 15 percent fuel pena l ty over 1 9 7 0 eng ine s . The dual - cataly s t sys tem propo sed b y mo s t manufac turer s w i l l use about 2 5 percent more fuel than its 1 97 0 counterpar t ; and the Wankel conf igura t ion , wh ich seems mo s t l ike ly to me e t the 1 976 s tandards , wi l l probab ly pay a fuel penal ty o f approximately 3 0 percent , due to its rich mixture ratio . 5.4 Exercise to I l l u s trate the Impac t of Pos s ible Use o f a Mix o f Engine s and Contro l Sys tems As ment ioned earl ier , the Amer ican automob ile producers are by and large seeking to mee t the 1 9 76 requirements with a dual- cataly s t modified carbure ted p is ton eng ine acro s s the ir car l ines . However , i t is quite unl ikely that any s ing le eng ine ty pe or control sys tem will prove s uitab l e for a l l s izes and types o f 1 9 7 6 automob iles . Further more , several new l ow- emis s ion eng ine c onf igurat ions may we l l phase in to rep l ace some o f the carbureted p is ton eng ine s . C lear ly , phas ing in of these various new engines and contro l sys tems and phas ing out of the eng ine s they rep l ace wil l have an e ffec t on s t icker pr ice due to the cap ital cos ts incurred . A computer s imulat ion o f the dynamics of s uch a pr oce s s was c arr ied out to de termine the magnitude o f th is effec t . Al though any s e t o f a s s umpt ions could have appl ied in thi s s imul a t ion , a s e t was chosen wh ich leads to a relat ively h igh impac t on the indu s try , i . e . , i t phases out the present type eng ines very quickly . ( It shou ld be emphas ized that the C ommi t tee does no t c ons ider such a dras t ic change to be probable . ) The f o l l owing are the as s umpt ions used : 1. The mod i f ied carbure ted p i s ton eng ine equipped with an oxidation cataly s t will be produced only in model year 1 9 75 and no modified c arbureted p is ton engine us ing cataly t ic contro l of emis s ions will be produced in model year 1 9 7 6 . - 102 - Digitized byGoogle
2. The Wankel eng ine wil l be introduced initially in the smal l car s ( s ubcompac t and compac t ) and s ub s equently wil l be developed in higher-horsepower vers ions for l arger veh ic l e s . 3. Diesel engines (4 and 6 cyl inder s ) will be intro duced for f l e e t- c ar u s age by 1 9 7 5 . A V-8 Diesel wil l be introduced s ubs equent ly . 4. A l �ited number o f s tratif ied- charge eng ine s ( 3 - valve ) wil l be introduced in 4- and 6 - cyl inder ver s ions for sma l l car s . 5. Gas o l ine eng ines with e lec tronic fuel inj e c tion wil l be introduced by 1976 in 4- , 6 - , and a-cyl ind e r vers ions in very l arge quant i t ie s . Applying these hypothe t ical as s ump tions to the s �ulat ion mode l , the cap ital - inves tment �pac t on manufac tur ing fac i l i t ie s was then developed , as a s t icker pr ice increase . In the model , the aggregate American produc t ion was cons idered without ident ify ing the s pec ific producer . The car c onf igurat ions were de tailed down to the maj or com ponents and subas s emb l ie s . These units were then s chedul ed in produc t ion in the proper sequence and at the proper t ime to yield the des ired s chedule us ing s tandard indu s try lead t ime s . These numbers were deve l  oped g iving due c ons iderat ion to expec ted produ c t l ife and normal indus try amor t izat ion prac tice s . The expected s ticker-pr ice increases to re turn the c ap ital inves tment in new produc t ion l ine s , old produc t ion- l ine tear up , a s s embly- l ine change , and new f ac il ities were found to range ( even with s uch a dr as t ic change in eng ines and c ontrol sys tems in s uch a shor t t ime ) from $ 8 to $ 1 5 0 per car . - 103 - Digitized byGoogle