National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2009. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12735.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2009. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12735.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2009. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12735.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2009. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12735.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2009. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12735.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2009. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12735.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2009. Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12735.
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Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS   500 Fifth Street, N.W.   Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by contract HHM40205D0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, con- clusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Cover: Front cover design by Shannon Thomas. Top image courtesy of the United States Department of Defense; bottom image courtesy of Digital Vision/Flying Colours Ltd. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-14228-1 International Standard Book Number-10:  0-309-14228-8 Limited copies are available from: Additional copies are available from: Division on Engineering and Physical The National Academies Press Sciences 500 Fifth Street, N.W. National Research Council Lockbox 285 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Washington, DC 20001 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (202) 334-3118 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the ­Academy has a ­mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding ­ engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina- tion of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the r ­ esponsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scien- tific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter RUTH A. DAVID, Chair, ANSER, Arlington, Virginia Steven R.J. Brueck, University of New Mexico Ann N. Campbell, Sandia National Laboratories STEPHEN W. DREW, Drew Solutions, Inc., Summitt, New Jersey John Gannon, BAE Systems Sharon C. Glotzer, University of Michigan Christopher C. Green, Wayne State University Leslie Greengard, Courant Institute, New York University Diane E. Griffin, Johns Hopkins University J.C. Herz, Batchtags, Inc. J. Jerome Holton, Tauri Group Frederick R. Lopez, Raytheon Company GILMAN G. LOUIE, Alsop Louie Partners, San Francisco Julie J.C.H. Ryan, George Washington University James B. Smith, Raytheon Company Dianne S. Wiley, The Boeing Company Staff MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer LISA COCKRELL, Associate Program Officer ERIN C. FITZGERALD, Associate Program Officer SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate SHANNON THOMAS, Program Associate 

Preface The symposium described in this report represents a new venue for the ongoing engagement between the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) TIGER (Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review) Standing Committee, the scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) community, and the consumers of S&TI products. TIGER’s sponsor—the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) Defense Warning Office (DWO)—described this symposium as the first annual gathering of this type, intending that both the personal interactions that occurred throughout the symposium, as well as this report and similar products from future sessions, would help drive systemic strengthening of U.S. S&TI capabilities. We wish to express our appreciation to the members of the Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter for their thoughtful contributions to the symposium discussions as well as to the generation of this report. We also are grateful for the active participation of many members of the defense community in this symposium, especially those contributing to the discussion as panelists and invited speakers, as well as to the members of the S&TI community for their support. The committee would also like to express sincere appreciation for the support and assistance of the NRC staff, including Michael Clarke, Daniel Talmage, Carter Ford, Lisa Cockrell, Erin Fitzgerald, Sarah Capote, and Shannon Thomas. Ruth A. David, Chair Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding   Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter vii

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manu- script remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Jim Carafano, The Heritage Foundation, Natalie W. Crawford (NAE), RAND Corporation, Lawrence A. Delaney, Titan Corporation (retired), Alan H. Epstein (NAE), Pratt & Whitney, Robert J. Hermann (NAE), Global Technology Partners, LLC, Alton D. Romig, Jr. (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories, and Robert M. Shea, Smartronix, Inc. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommenda- tions, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Chris G. Whipple (NAE), ENVIRON. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. ix

Contents 1 MOTIVATION FOR THE SYMPOSIUM 1 Symposium Objective, 2 Symposium Participants, 4 Setting the Scene, 4 This Report, 8 References, 8 2 CURRENT TECHNOLOGY SURPRISE PROBLEMS 9 Defining Technology Surprise, 9 Areas of Concern, 10 Process-Specific Concerns About Technology Surprise, 11 Use of Information in New Ways, 12 Specific Areas of Concern for Technology Surprise, 13 Sources of Future Technology Surprise, 13 Timing, 15 Technology Commoditization, 16 The Stages of Surprise, 16 Concluding Thoughts, 16 3 SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL 17 INTELLIGENCE Topics Discussed, 17 S&TI Resources, 17 Making S&TI Actionable for COCOMs, 18 S&TI Production and Delivery, 19 Steps to Prevent Technology Surprise, 20 xi

xii CONTENTS 4 DISCUSSIONS WITH INVITED SPEAKERS 22 The Honorable Dennis Blair, 22 Particular Areas of Technology to Watch, 23 Additional Discussion, 23 The Honorable Jacques Gansler, 24 Additional Discussion, 25 Mr. Robert Hegstrom, 25 Additional Discussion, 27 5 UNDERLYING THEMES 29 APPENDIXES A Workshop Agenda and Panelists 33 B Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 35 C Participating Organizations 44 D Opening Session Charts 46 E Questions Presented to Panels 51 F Biographical Sketches of Invited Speakers 53

Acronyms and Abbreviations AT&L Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics COCOM combatant command DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DIA Defense Intelligence Agency DNI Director of National Intelligence DOD Department of Defense DTWS Defense Technology Warning System DWO Defense Warning Office IC intelligence community IED improvised explosive device ISR intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations (US)JFCOM United States Joint Forces Command JWICS Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communication System NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NRC National Research Council NSF National Science Foundation ODUSD Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense ONR Office of Naval Research xiii

xiv ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS OUSDI Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, Intelligence Q&A question and answer R&D research and development S&T science and technology S&TI scientific and technical intelligence SIPRNet Secret Internet Protocol Router Network USSOCOM United States Special Operations Command TIGER Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review

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On April 29, 2009 the National Research Council held a 1-day symposium titled, 'Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter.' This volume, a report of the symposium, highlights key challenges confronting the scientific and technical intelligence (S & TI) community and explores potential solutions that might enable the S & TI community to overcome those challenges.

The symposium captured comments and observations from representatives from combatant commands and supporting governmental organizations, together with those of symposium participants, in order to elucidate concepts and trends, knowledge of which could be used to improve the Department of Defense's technology warning capability. Topics addressed included issues stemming from globalization of science and technology, challenges to U.S. warfighters that could result from technology surprise, examples of past technological surprise, and the strengths and weaknesses of current S & TI analysis.

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