avoiding technology surprise for tomorrow’s warfighter—symposium 2010
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This is a report of work supported by contract HHM402-05-D-0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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COMMITTEE FOR THE SYMPOSIUM ON AVOIDING TECHNOLOGY SURPRISE FOR TOMORROW’S WARFIGHTER—2010
J. JEROME HOLTON, Chair,
Tauri Group, Alexandria, Virginia
RUTH A. DAVID, Vice Chair,
Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER), Arlington, Virginia
Berico Tailored Systems, Columbia, Maryland
ALAN H. EPSTEIN,
Pratt & Whitney, East Hartford, Connecticut
BAE Systems, Reston, Virginia
CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN,
Wayne State University
DIANE E. GRIFFIN,
Johns Hopkins University
KENNETH A. KRESS,
KBK Consulting, Inc., Arlington, Virginia
GILMAN G. LOUIE,
Alsop Louie Partners, San Francisco
JULIE J.C.H. RYAN,
George Washington University
MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Lead DEPS Board Director
DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Study Director
CARTER FORD, Program Officer
SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate
MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator
SHANNON C. THOMAS, Program Associate
CHRIS JONES, Financial Manager
The symposium described in this report was the second annual gathering of this type, representing a new venue for the ongoing engagement between the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Technology Insight—Gauge, Evaluate, and Review (TIGER) Standing Committee, the scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) community, and the consumers of S&TI products.1 TIGER’s sponsor, the Defense Warning Office (DWO) of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), intends that the personal interactions that occurred throughout the symposium, this report, and similar products of future sessions will help to systemically strengthen U.S. S&TI capabilities.
The chair and vice chair express their appreciation to the members of the Committee for the Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter—2010 for their earnest contributions to the generation of this report. We are also grateful for the active participation of many members of the technology community as well as to the sponsor for its support. Likewise, we recognize the substantial contribution made by the staff of the Lockheed Martin Center for Innovation in supporting the conduct of this symposium at the facility in Suffolk, Virginia. The committee would also like to express sincere appreciation for the support and assistance of the NRC staff, including Daniel Talmage, Carter Ford,
The preceding symposium is described in National Research Council, 2009, Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow’s Warfighter: A Symposium Report, Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12735.
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
James J. Carafano, The Heritage Foundation,
Lawrence J. Delaney, Titan Corporation (retired),
Stephen W. Drew (NAE), Drew Solutions LLC,
Allison A. Hickey (USAF, retired), Accenture National Security Services,
Larry G. Lehowicz (USA, retired), Quantum Research International, and
Gregory S. Martin (USAF, retired), GS Martin Consulting.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert J. Hermann (NAE). Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Acronyms and Abbreviations
COCOM combatant command
COD currency of development
DIA Defense Intelligence Agency
DoD Department of Defense
DWO Defense Warning Office
EMP electromagnetic pulse
FOIA Freedom of Information Act
IC intelligence community
JFCOM United States Joint Forces Command
NRC National Research Council
ORD Office of Research and Development
RCAs riot control agents
R&D research and development
S&T science and technology
S&TI scientific and technical intelligence