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Review of the St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study: Report 3 Committee to Review the St. Johns River Water Supply Impact Study Water Science and Technology Board Division on Earth and Life Studies THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu PREPUBLICATION COPY
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this study was provided by the St. Johns River Water Management District under grant SLOC-25123. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number X-XXX-XXXXX-X Library of Congress Catalog Card Number XX-XXXXX Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 5th Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. PREPUBLICATION COPY
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org PREPUBLICATION COPY
COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER SUPPLY IMPACT STUDY PATRICK L. BREZONIK, Chair, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis M. SIOBHAN FENNESSY, Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio BEN R. HODGES, University of Texas, Austin JAMES R. KARR, University of Washington, Seattle MARK S. PETERSON, University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs JAMES L. PINCKNEY, University of South Carolina, Columbia JORGE I. RESTREPO, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton ROLAND C. STEINER, Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission, Laurel, Maryland J. COURT STEVENSON, University of Maryland, Cambridge STAFF LAURA J. EHLERS, Study Director MICHAEL J. STOEVER, Research Associate v PREPUBLICATION COPY
WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD DONALD I. SIEGEL, Chair, Syracuse University, New York LISA ALVAREZ-COHEN, University of California, Berkeley MARK M. BRINSON, East Carolina University, Greenville YU-PING CHIN, The Ohio State University, Columbus OTTO C. DOERING, Purdue University, West Lafayette GERALD E. GALLOWAY, University of Maryland, College Park GEORGE R. HALLBERG, The Cadmus Group, Inc., Waltham, Massachusetts KENNETH R. HERD, Southwest Florida Water Management District, Brooksville GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Vanderbilt University, Nashville KIMBERLY L. JONES, Howard University, Washington, DC MICHAEL J. MCGUIRE, Michael J. McGuire, Inc., Santa Monica, California DAVID H. MOREAU, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill DENNIS D. MURPHY, University of Nevada, Reno MARYLYNN V. YATES, University of California, Riverside STAFF STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Scholar LAURA J. EHLERS, Senior Program Officer STEPHANIE E. JOHNSON, Senior Program Officer LAURA E. HELSABECK, Program Officer M. JEANNE AQUILINO, Financial and Administrative Associate ELLEN A. DE GUZMAN, Senior Program Associate ANITA A. HALL, Senior Program Associate MICHAEL J. STOEVER, Research Associate SARAH E. BRENNAN, Program Assistant vi PREPUBLICATION COPY
Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Councilâs Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: MARK M. BRINSON, East Carolina University WENDY D. GRAHAM, University of Florida WAYNE HUBER, Oregon State University MICHAEL C. KAVANAUGH, Geosyntec, Inc. JAYANTHA OBEYSEKERA, South Florida Water Management District Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Jerome B. Gilbert. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii PREPUBLICATION COPY
Contents REPORT SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 3 Watershed and River Description, 4 Background on the Hydrology and Hydrodynamics Workgroup, 9 Scenarios to be Modeled, 10 2 REVIEW OF MODELING METHODS AND RESULTS 12 Land Use/Land Cover, 12 Meteorology, 14 Watershed Hydrology, 15 River Hydrodynamics, 17 Groundwater, 19 Simulations for Various Scenarios and Future Conditions, 20 3 MODEL LIMITATIONS AND OTHER 24 RECOMMENDATIONS Changing Climate, 24 Calibration Limits, 25 Dependency on Urbanization and Resulting Stormwater Flow, 25 Confounding Processes, 28 Applicability of HSPF to Wetlands Hydrology, 28 REFERENCES 31 ix PREPUBLICATION COPY