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Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development (1990)

Chapter: 4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Page 45
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Page 46
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 47
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 48
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 49
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 50
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 51
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 52
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 53
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 54
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 55
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 56
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 57
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 58
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 59
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 60
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 61
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 62
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 63
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 64
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 65
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 66
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 67
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 68
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 69
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 70
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 71
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 72
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 73
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 74
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 75
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 76
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 77
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 78
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 79
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 80
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 81
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 82
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 83
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 84
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 85
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 86
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 87
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 88
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 89
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 90
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 91
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 92
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 93
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 94
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 95
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 96
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 97
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 98
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 99
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 100
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 101
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 102
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 103
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 104
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 105
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 106
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 107
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 108
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 109
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 110
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
Page 111
Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
×
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Suggested Citation:"4 Potential for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases." National Research Council. 1990. Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1600.
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Page 127

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

4 POTE=IAL FOR EDUCING EMI88ION8 OF G=E=008E GASES The potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production and use of energy are analyzed in this chapter from the standpoint of four market sectors: electric power, transportation, residential/commercial buildings, and industry. A key part of this analysis is the identification of alternative energy technology options to meet specific service demands in the respective market sectors such that the technology application is accompanied by significant reductions in the quantity of GHGs emitted per unit of service provided, compared to current practice. In this sense the electric power sector is concerned with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity to all users; the industry sector is concerned with the manufacture of all products, including fuels; the transportation sector is concerned with technologies to move people and goods; and the residential/commercial sector is concerned with the design of buildings for all sectors as well as with the provision of services within the building envelope (space conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, etc.) and the efficient utilization of the pertinent technologies. The time frames of relevance to this study include the near- term period through the year 20OO and the long-term one that goes to the year 2050 and beyond. Each sector analysis encompasses actions for achieving commercial adoption (implementation) in the near term of promising energy technologies for which essentially no R&D is required and simultaneously identifying R&D needs, priorities, and implementation strategies with the potential for high payoff over the long-term horizon. Recommendations are formulated within the confines of activities and services relevant to each sector and are expressed in terms of selective changes to the current federal energy R&D agenda. However, no specific GHG emission reduction objectives versus time have been postulated for the technology-adoption actions that are recommended. Most of the substance of this report is based on the experience and expertise of the members of the committee and panels and on information obtained from various sources (see Acknowledgments). When appropriate, the committee and panels made use of prior studies on energy technologies for reducing GIG emissions, (see Notes and References and Bibliography at the end of this chapter). In parallel with the current study, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) national laboratories were preparing white papers on energy efficiency, renewable energy, global climate change, and technology transfer for consideration in the national energy strategy. While these papers were not all available to the committee and the panels during their deliberations, they are cited in the Bibliography. 45

ELECTRIC POWER Energy Ose and GIG Emissions The electric power sector has the potential to produce and deliver electricity essentially free of GHG emissions, primarily CO2. Currently, however, electricity is generated worldwide predominantly from fossil fuels, with coal being the dominant fuel choice. Non-CO2-emitting electricity-generating technologies based on nuclear fission reactors, renewable sources, and geothermal energy are commercially available and technically could supply the world's energy needs. Because of unfavorable economics as well as environmental, health, and safety concerns, however, it is by no means clear that these technologies could be deployed on the scale required without substantial research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) and costs. The transition from coal to these non-COg-emitting sources will involve major changes in the operating and performance criteria applied to the selection and deployment of generating technologies in energy markets served by the electric utilities and in the economy as a whole. The electric power equipment that is in place in the United States and that supplied power in 1988 is shown in Table 4-1. The major source of CO2 (over 85 percent) is from coal because of its high carbon content per British thermal unit and its use in base- load operations. Electricity production results in the annual emission of over 450 million metric tons of carbon (MTC) annually as CO2 and only a relatively small amount of other GHGs. Hence, this chapter is primarily concerned with measures and R&D strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in the electric power sector. Maj or Targets for Attention A CO2-free electricity supply system is feasible based on the technology available today. Such technology is currently uneconomical or unacceptable to large segments of our society. The social and environmental impacts of these technologies and the related political and regulatory factors are as critical as technical options if CO2 emissions are to be significantly reduced. Unless these factors are appropriately addressed, the money allocated to "solving" technical problems will be wasted. For a significant reduction in GHG emissions, demand for electricity must be reduced and an effective generating strategy implemented. The alternative pathways are shown in Figure 4-1. 46

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Such a strategy would aim to increase the relative percentage of electricity produced by non-CO2-emitting generation options. In the near term use of energy from existing alternative resources would be maximized. In the longer term the strategy would deploy alternative generation options for new plants and retrofits, coupled with an environmental dispatch strategy to use all generating capacity in the most environmentally effective manner. Approaches that could help reduce CO2 emissions are listed below for the near and long term. Significant reductions of CO2 emission from current levels may be possible in the near term if the following actions are implemented between now and the year 2000: · Increase end-use efficiency in all end-use sectors by aggressive R&D and demand-side management programs. Increase nuclear power plant availability from international practice current 64 percent to the highest percent to 85 percent). the (75 · Resolve the controversies that are currently delaying operation of those nuclear generation facilities that are complete or nearing completion. · Increase the efficiency of existing fossil fuel units by improved operation and maintenance. · Cofire natural gas with coal and substitute natural gas for coal to the extent it is available. · Encourage the installation of cogeneration units to increase the overall efficiency of combined heat and electricity production. · Improve existing transmission and distribution facilities (with both alternating current and direct current additions) to increase the efficiency of the network and permit greater gains from a larger and more efficient environmental dispatch. ~ Adopt environmental feasible. dispatch approach of power when 48

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Aggressive development of near-commercial technologies between now and the year 2025 will assure that non-CO2-emitting facilities will be available for installation in the post-2025 period. Their deployment could eliminate emissions of GHGs from the electric power sector by 2050. The long-term actions are as follows: · Sustain aggressive end-use efficiency improvements In all sectors to offset growth in the demand for electricity. · Develop and commercialize one or more advanced nuclear power reactors that are acceptable to the global market. · Develop and commercialize renewables to the extent feasible. ~ Improve the efficiency of existing hydra installations by replacing inefficient facilities with modern high-efficiency equipment. ~ Retire CO2-emitting power generation equipment as rapidly as non-or low-emitt~ng alternatives can be installed. · Promote regulations to encourage adoption of non- or low-CO2-emitting generation facilities. Availability of Technology to Reduce GAG Emissions The technology evaluations in this chapter are subdivided into the primary energy resources-fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and renewable/unconventional energy. In addition, transmission, distribution, and storage technologies are addressed. Fossil Fuels The new fossil fuel technologies under development that will use coal are a set of fluidized bed technologies (atmospheric fluidized bed, pressurized fluidized bed,) and the integrated coal gasification, gas turbine, combined cycle system (IGCC). 2 The overall thermal efficiencies of these new coal-based technologies are equal to or better than the existing pulverized coal plants and can have reduced emissions of environmental pollutants (SOx, NOx, and particulates). Of the new coal-based technologies, the IGCC system has the highest efficiency and the lowest emission of environmental pollutants. Reduction in CO2 is directly related to thermal efficiency gains ; thus, the IGCC has the potential for being the preferred coal-based technology considering all environmental emissions, including CO2. 50

To reduce CO2 from natural gas and coal combustion, the development of improved combined cycles and other advanced gas- turbine-based power technologies is essential. Clean coal technology is becoming more important and will have an impact on all new coal-fired power plants and many existing ones. Some of the clean coal technologies will achieve major reductions in SOx emissions at the expense of power plant efficiencies and a consequent increase of CO2 emissions. Research In these clean coal technologies should favor avenues that do not carry penalties in the form of increased CO2 emissions. Environmental research and regulations should therefore include GHG emissions as a criterion in evaluating new approaches to coal combustion. Capture and Disposal of CO2 Although capture of CO2 emissions from combustion gases can be achieved by conventional technolog~es-with assessment of energy penalties In the 15 to 30 percent range 3'4 - this is only a small part of the problem. Disposal of CO2 is likely to be much more costly and may ultimately impose a prohibiting energy penalty. A number of options have been proposed, such as disposal in the deep oceans or in abandoned gas wells. Their feasibility needs to be assessed. Nuclear Energy Nuclear power is an important alternative to energy from fossil fuels and a potentially important component in a low-CO2 emission strategy. It can be an efficient source of energy capable of generating electricity and/or process heat. Light water reactor (LWR) technology is highly developed and mature in comparison to other renewable or nuclear alternatives, but continued deployment of nuclear technology in the United States is fraught with hurdles that impede nuclear power as a major option for reducing CO2 emissions. Two technical approaches to these problems are often suggested: one based on evolutionary improvements to existing LWR designs and the other based on new designs, almost revolutionary in approach. Proponents of an evolutionary strategy believe that the option of a major shift away from conventional LWR technology is unrealistic and illusory. They argue that it is wiser to draw on the great store of LWR experience in order to move incrementally toward an improved LWR system than to forgo this experience in favor of an unproven concepts. Moreover, they point out the great difficulty of changing the technological course of an industry that for over three decades has been so strongly oriented toward LWR systems. 51

On the other hand, the evolutionary approach by its very nature may be insufficient to address the fundamental problems that have arisen with nuclear power in the United States. A radical technological shift need not entail a completely new start, for a good deal of the existing LWR technology base is likely to be transferrable irrespective of the direction of the shift. In the case of LWR, liquid metal reactor (LMR), and modular high-temperature gas reactor (MHTGR) systems, relevant experience exists both in the United States and overseas. Finally, disaffection toward conventional LWR technology in the electric utility industry and among the general public may be so strong, and the managerial and regulatory difficulties of the existing industry so great, that only a radical technological change could help restore the nuclear option. Basic changes In the assumptions and policies of industry and government will be required to stimulate a more vigorous technological response to the current problems facing nuclear power. Current Advanced Reactor Development. Recent technology advances achieved by various programs conducted or sponsored by DOE, the U.S. private sector, the European community, Japan, and the U.S.S.R. are leading to the development of new generations of reactors. Most of the advanced reactors fall into one of six types: evolutionary large light water reactors (LWRs), advanced passive medium-sized LWRs, conceptually new LWRs, heavy water reactors (HWRs), modular high-temperature gas reactors (MHTGRs), and liquid metal reactors (LMRs). Fusion Technology. Of the several approaches investigated since controlled thermonuclear research started, two stand out as the most promising: the inertial laser fusion reactor and the Tokomak magnetic fusion. The bulk of the effort on laser fusion is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense, while the Tokomak is mostly funded by DOE. In both the United States (Tokomak Fusion Test Reactor) and the European commune ty (Joint European Torus) , fusion reactors are within a factor of 2 to 3 from the break-even point. This represents a millionfold improvement over a span of 20 years. However, even if a self-sustained experimental reactor is demonstrated, fusion reactors face serious engineering problems related to superconducting coil designs, materials issues of radiation damage, and technology of energy 52

extraction. Conservatively, magnetic fusion reactors will not be a significant component of the U.S. electricity generation mix before the year 2050. Institutional and Technological Constraints. Among the major institutional deterrents to large-scale introduction of nuclear power, foremost are high cost, poor public acceptance for reasons of safety, and poor fit with utility systems. If nuclear power is to be developed on a large scale, additional institutional changes may be required to make the nuclear energy system diversion resistant, including internationalization of certain parts of the nuclear fuel cycle. Finding institutional arrangements that will both make the nuclear system acceptably diversion resistant and politically acceptable will be challenging and will probably require major international cooperation. Renewables Renewable technologies can be classified as renewables with inherent storage capacity (hydra, biomass, geothermal, ocean thermal) and intermittent renewables (wind, solar thermal, photovoltaics). Aside from hydra, renewables In 1988 accounted for 0.4 percent of electricity generation in the United States. Renewables, however, offer the potential for significant exploitation in the future, with environmental benefits and promising economics. Bydro. Some 64 gigawatts (GW) of conventional hydra and 17 GW of pumped storage capacity have been developed in the United States. The latent potential has been estimated as 75 GW conventional and 15 GW pumped storage, but the environmental costs of this development could be severe.s Plant efficiencies could be improved with new variable-speed, constant-frequency generators. The national potential for such upgrades needs to be determined. Biomass. Burning biomass grown renewably makes no net contribution to atmospheric CO2. Most of the present 8 GW of installed biomass generating capacity in the United States is based on the steam Rankine cycle and is concentrated in the pulp and paper industry, where the fuel used is low-cost wood wastes. Some pressurized airblown gasifiers closely coupled to various steam-injected aeroderivative gas turbine cycles appear to be well suited to biomass applications. The coal gasifier/ combined cycle technology demonstrated at Cool Water, California, 5- may have lower unit capital costs with biomass versions. This may be because biomass generally contains negligible sulfur, the removal of which is costly for coal systems. If these potential advantages could be realized, electricity produced from biomass could be competitive with 53

electricity from conventional coal steam-electric plants in situations where sustainable management of the resource is cost- effective .6 Geothermal. The U.S. geothermal industry is presently producing 3 GW of baseload electricity. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated the total U.S. hydrothermal resource usable for power generation to be 2,400 quads, located primarily in the western states, Alaska, and Hawaii. The U.S. geopressured resource-the energy in overpressured reservoirs of hot water that contain dissolved methane-is estimated to be 180,000 quads. If heat mining of deep hot dry rocks can be developed, between 10 and 106 quads of energy might be available. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC). Potential commercial opportunities of OTEC are primarily outside the United States. Basic research on biofouling and corrosion in marine environments, exploratory research on low-temperature differential thermal cycles, and systems studies relating OTEC to other non-G~G- emitting technologies may prove valuable. The committee did not evaluate OTEC programs and has no recommendations on what R&D is most appropriate. Wind. There is 1. 5 GW of installed wind capacity in California. There has been a fourfold reduction In the cost of wind power from the best new wind farms since 1981. Further cost reductions could arise with new technological advances in composite materials, manufacturing processes, and "smart" controls. The wind resource is less dependent on latitude than other solar sources. The accessible U.S. resource has been estimated to be 1,000 times the electricity currently produced by wind.` 801ar Thermal. For high solar insolation areas, solar thermal-electric technology is promising. The parabolic trough is the most mature solar thermal-electric technology with 200 MW of capacity currently operating on a utility grid in California in the hybrid mode (with natural gas backup). Some 80 MW of additional capacity is under construction in the United States and 320 MW is planned. Variants on solar thermal technology include the parabolic dish/dish-mounted engine generator and the heliostat/central receiver system. Photovoltaics {PV}. The price of photovoltaic modules has fallen from about $120 per peak watt (in nominal dollars) in the early 197 Os to the range of $4 to $5 per peak watt today. Attractive features of PV technology are that no cooling water is needed for flat plate collector systems and prospective economics are favorable at small scale. 54

One approach to reducing costs further involves the use of thin films, which promise very low unit capital costs because of the tiny amounts of active materials involved and the suitability of the technology to mass production techniques. Amorphous silicon, copper Indian diselenide, and cadmium telluride are the leading competing thin-film technologies.9930 Alternatively, high-efficiency crystalline cells could be used in tracking and concentrating collectors. R&D Needs ~d Priorities Following are broad guidelines for developing an effective set of options for generating electricity with technologies that will significantly reduce emissions of GHGs: · The most important and immediately ef fective option is increasing energy productivity that is beneficial in addition to its potential for GHG reduction. · A number of nonfoss'1 energy options are possible for GHG emission reduction in power generation. All technically feasible and environmentally acceptable options should be pursued. A multiple option strategy in energy policy is critical for its success. Increased and consistent R&D funding is required to develop and deploy the most promising low- or non-CO2-producing electric generation technologies. While increased funding is necessary, it is not sufficient. New mechanisms are needed involving government, industry, and the electric utilities. Time constraints for this study did not allow the development of such mechanisms . In general, however, R&D efforts should be concentrated to the extent possible in the private sector either by direct funding of private performers or indirectly by policies that increase private returns for publicly needed R&D. · Early action in developing and implementing electricity supply strategies will help minimize later difficulties because the time from technology conception to its widespread adoption is measured in decades. ~ The trend toward a more electric future, as well as the fact that most nonfossil energy options produce electricity, indicates the need for and benefit of research on future electric systems-storage, interactive load control, increased efficiency, and regional interconnections. 55

· International cooperation is needed to develop energy strategies and to promote consensus for a set of global energy technologies. U.S. leadership and early initiative will have a demonstrative effect elsewhere and hence a multiplier effect worldwide. A major point to be considered is that accelerated market adoption of technologies requires a coordinated institutional approach involving government, manufacturers, utilities, and regulators. In addition, economic evaluation concepts which internalize environmental costs are needed if minimum CO2- producing technologies are to become the "economic" choice. Although both the federal and private sectors may have effective programs, they are seldom comb' ned in ways that will produce the maximum technology development per total dollar expended. Considering the magnitude of the technology development needed to bring forth commercially available non- or low-CO2-emitting technology for electric power production, a vastly superior federal/private collaboration in RD&D is needed. Review of DOE Fossil Energy R&D Program The DOE Fossil Energy R&D Program has had as its main purpose the continued use of fossil fuels as a fundamental component of our domestic energy use. The program has two parts: clean coal technology funded in FY 1990 at $554 million and fossil energy R&D funded in FY 1990 at $417 million. The main thrusts of the clean coal technology efforts, which are cofunded by other participants, are the reduction of acid gas emissions with emphasis on retrofit technologies and projects that will be ready for application by 2005. The fossil energy R&D efforts include longer-range projects and research on improved and unconventional hydrocarbon recovery projects. The effect on carbon dioxide emissions was not a criterion during the selection of the present projects. The IGCC and fuel cell could provide CO2 emission reductions of 20 percent with currently available technology; and much greater reductions are possible using advanced gasifiers, and high efficiency advanced gas turbines, or advanced fuel cells. Most of the flue gas scrubbing technologies increase the energy consumption and thus the CO2 emissions per kilowatt hour. Coal gasification projects also Produce extra CON during the gasification Process. If the gas is used in conventional furnaces, a net increase in overall CO2 production will occur. The burden of any overall CO2 reduction will fall on the generating system, IGCC with or without fuel cells. Government funding of combined-cycle systems has been and continues to be very limited. 56

Fossil Energy R&D Neeas To obtain maximum efficiencies from gas turbine systems, accelerated R&D is needed on high-temperature-operation; advanced blade cooling technologies; intercooling, reheat, and regenerative cycles including steam-~njected cycles; and chemically recuperated cycles. R&D of improved gasifiers, both for coal and biomass, is required for high-efficiency IGCC systems. A long-term option that should be studied is the capture of CO2 from combustion processes. The United States should pursue basic generic research on the subject and keep abreast of developments worldwide, including in Japan. Review of DOE Nuclear Energy RED Program The current DOE civilian nuclear fission R&D program has a threefold objective: ]2~ ~3 · to develop the advanced LWR in cooperation with industry to meet near-term needs, term, and to develop advanced reactors (MHTGR, L~R) for the longer · to eliminate overly restrictive regulatory barriers to the use of nuclear power. The current DOE R&D funding is shown in Table 4-2. The main funded activities are summarized below: · Evolutionary LWRs DOE funding is limited to safety analysis and support for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's submittal of the Safety Analysis Report. Support is given to General Electric's (G.E.) advanced boiling water reactor (ABWR) and to Combustion Engineering's System 80+. . Advanced Passive Medium-Sized LWRs DOE funding is divided here between the G.E. small boiling water reactor (SBWR) and the Westinghouse AP600. The program is directed at both separate safety tests and initiation of detailed design of these 600 MW reactors. . Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) The major part of DOE funding is directed to support the completion by General Atomics of their preliminary design efforts, licensing interactions with the Nuclear Regulatory ~7

Commission, technology development efforts to demonstrate quality of fuel elements, and participation in international collaborative agreements. The remaining allocation supports the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's work in fuel and material technology developments. · Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR) related The DOE advanced LMR program consists of two separate but parts: the Integral Fast Reactor program at Argonne National Laboratory and the small advanced liquid metal reactor, PRISM, under conceptual design by G.E. DOE funding for Argonne focuses on technology demonstration of metal fuel, demonstration of processing technology, and fuel recycle capability. DOE support for G.E. is primarily in the preliminary design ef forts for PRISM. Additionally, DOE funds Oak Ridge ' s efforts, in collaboration with Japan in the oxide fuel reprocessing development programs. fuel The large proposed on of DOE advanced reactor expenditures on facil ities support raises questions and indicates an rebalanced program. TABLE 4-2 DOE Advanced Reactor and Magnetic Fusion Appropriations Activity Appropriation (Millions of dollars) FY 1989 FY 1990 Large LWR pants 6.5 3.4 Mid-sized LIAR plants 8.5 15.0 Other LURs 2.5 0.0 MHTGR 19.8 22.5 I~R/IPR S4. 2 35.1 Total advanced reactors 91.5 76.0 Facilities support 139 .6 169.6 Magnetic fusion 344.6 320. 3 58

Nuclear Fission RED Needs A separate study by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) on future U.S. nuclear power development is currently under way to review and assess development approaches for the next generation of advanced reactors and to articulate a nuclear R&D strategy for the United States. In the broad context of alternative energy R&D strategies for reducing emissions of GHGs, however, an international study should be undertaken by DOE on criteria for globally acceptable reactors. Such a study should be completed in no more than S years and should involve researchers and policymakers from around the world. Developing countries should be among the main participants. The study should attempt to establish criteria for an acceptable "global" nuclear reactor (or reactors) taking into account often conflicting requirements such as safety, reliability, scale, simplicity and standardization, waste disposal and storage, d~version-resistant fuel cycle, cost considerations, and fuel efficiency. Some of these requirements are briefly highlighted in Table 4-3. Fusion In the case of magnetic fusion, the United States ought to enter into international partnership arrangements for present and future R&D activities. Moreover, important questions could be better answered by a greater emphasis on fundamental physics rather than the current mixed emphasis on science and equipment development. A shift in DOE's focus toward much more basic research and a greater level of international collaboration will enable reductions in expenditures for the magnetic fusion program. The R&D funds so released ought to be reallocated among the other priority programs recommended in this study. In making this recommendation the committee does not preclude a resurgence in the scope and pace of funding for magnetic fusion RD&D should they be warranted by breakthroughs arising from the fundamental research program. The committee recognizes that the foregoing recommendation is contrary to that made by an earlier NAS study,,5 that recommended 'tan increase over current funding of 20 percent, held steady for the next five years, followed by an additional increment of 25 percent to permit construction of the Compact Ignition Tokomak, resolution of the central scientific feasibility question and participation in the construction of an international test reactor." That recommendation, however, was offered as an interim one pending an assessment by the federal government of a "balanced array of technological alternatives as an insurance strategy for meeting U.S. and 59

TABLE 4-3 Criteria and Issues for the International Study on Advanced Reactors Issues Lines of Investigation Safety and reliability Scale, simplicity, and standardization Nuclear waste disposal and storage Diversion- resistance Cost considerations Fuel efficiency A demonstrable enhancement in safety is necessary. Minim-m nuclear plant standards for siting and the protection of public health and environment should be defined in this global context. The optimal mix of passive versus active safety features should be explored. The main attributes here are the scale of reactors, ease of construction, factory fabrication, and ease of operation and maintenance. This issue is a critical public acceptance one and might conflict with requirements for diversion resistance. Minimizing the actin~des in the waste stream is an interesting technical approach. Technical and institutional approaches should be explored for preventing illicit diversion of weapons related materials with world-wide deployment of nuclear reactors. Any comparison of relative costs with fossil-fueled systems should reflect the externalities usually ignored in traditional economic evaluations. Total and specific investment costs of advanced reactors should be examined. A 5-year construction time should be a worldwide target. This should be addressed in the worldwide context of different fuel cycles, resource needs and constraints, waste management, diversion-resistant criteria, and total system costs. 60

global long-te~m needs," including an assessment of the attributes of those alternatives (environmental, public health, safety, etc. ~ . In the context of the current study, addressing alternative energy R&D strategies to deal with global climate change, the committee's view is that commercially viable fusion reactors are highly unlikely to make any significant additions to the U.S. electricity generation mix before the year 2050. Review of DOE Renewables R&D Program Hydro No ongoing R&D · Biomass Most relevant for electricity production are the DOE short rotating intensive culture program, started in the late 1970s and focused on fast-growing hardwoods, and the more recently initiated herbaceous energy crops program. · Geothermal The $38 million per year DOE program is aimed at developing drilling techniques and reservoir estimation.~, · Wind The $9 million per year DOE wind program is aimed at developing proof-of-concept, variable-speed wind turbine systems and advanced airfoils and at better understanding of atmospheric fluid dynamics, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics. · Solar Thermal The $15 million per year DOE solar thermal program is aimed at providing support for both the parabolic dish/dish-mounted engine generator and heliostat/central receiver concepts. · Photovoltaics The $35 million per year DOE photovoltaics program includes thin-film polycrystalline and amorphous semiconductor research, high-efficiency crystalline materials research, fundamental and supporting research, and collector and system research. 61

There is practically no ongoing DOE research on hybrid renewables/natural gas strategies. Ongoing DOE renewables-based hydrogen research is directed to investigations of very lonq-term possibilities involving photochemical, photoelectrochemical approaches. ~ , _ , _ _ photobiological, and During the 1980s enormous technical progress was made for a number of renewables during a time of minimum DOE R&D funding. A lesson from this experience is that government should resist the temptation to pick winners; this lesson was brought home by the commercial success with the parabolic trough thermal electric technology, despite the fact that the government's R&D effort has focused instead on the fuel' ostat/central receiver and parabolic dish/distributed engine generator concepts. For promising, rapidly evolving technologies such as photovoltaics, that are not yet ready to "take off" commercially, a prime consideration is how best to help sustain the industrial effort until significant commercial sales generate revenues sufficient to support the needed continuing R&D. A shortcoming of the federal program is its relatively weak analytical capacity for assessing potential future roles for renewables. Renewable R&D Needs · Hydro The national potential for increasing hydra output at existing facilities should be analyzed. The extent to which new technology can improve the economics of the untapped hydra potential and reduce the impacts on rivers needs to be defined. An analysis is needed of the benef its to the United States of free-flow turbine technology for flowing river applications and equipment for unconventional small-scale hydra sources. · Biomass approaches recovered. _ needed for the ongoing DOE program to grow terrestrial (woody and herbaceous ~ energy crops . R&D is also needed on biomass fuel A program aimed at developing biomass-based power generation would emphasize biomass production, harvesting, and preprocessing; demonstrating biomass gasifier/gas turbine power technologies; and understanding better the long-term biomass resource base. For near-term applications, R&D is needed on low-cost for recovering biomass residues that are not now For lonuer-term applications. continued support is 62

processing problems-' ncluding innovative techniques for drying the fuel and densifying it (if necessary for gasification). Considerable attention should be given to understanding better the potential for large-scale biomass-for-energy development in the United States, addressing not just the technical, economic, and environmental issues of biomass production but also the institutional and economic challenges of organizing the use of land for these purposes. · Geothermal Demonstration projects where continual engineering improvements can be evaluated, tested, and applied should be developed to obtain cost reductions. Wind R&D is needed to increase energy recovery rates and to reduce capital costs. Collaborative programs between manufacturers and users are essential. · Solar Thermal In the case of the heliostat central receiver concept, further developmental efforts should build on the experience of the ongoing Phoebes project (i.e., the Jordanian/European/American joint venture to demonstrate a 30-MW system). In the case of the parabolic d~sh/engine generator concept, an expansion of the ongoing developmental effort should be made contingent on obtaining a major industrial champion. · Photovoltaics Resources should be committed to collaborative government/industry projects. The highest priority in this area should be given to generic module development and manufacturing processes. A significant effort is needed on photovoltaics materials and cell fundamentals. Resources should continue to be committed to high-risk/high-potential payoff options involving new materials. Systems Analyses for Renewables DOE should launch a new analytical effort, in partnership with both the photovoltaics and utility industries, aimed at assessing potential roles for renewables in the power sector over time. This systems analysis should be aimed at identifying market entry and strategic development paths and conditions under which large-scale penetration of the power sector by renewables is feasible-including various renewables/storage ~ including hydrogen) 63

strategies, hybrid renewables/natural gas strategies, and renewables/strengthened utility grid strategies. Current Transmission and Distribution (T&D) and Storage R&D Programs Electric T&D and storage R&D programs are currently being carried out by DOE and the Electric Power Research Institute. The DOE's FY 1990 appropriations for Electric Energy Systems and Energy Storage programs was about $30 million with $12.0 million directed for storage systems. The budget request for FY 1991 of $40 million appears to reverse the trend of DOE's declining budget in these programs. DOE's R&D goals and budgets are directed toward system eff Saliency improvements and hence will help lessen the use of CO2-emitting fuels. The goals should also improve system economics regardless of greenhouse effect considerations. T&D and Storage R&D Needs R&D programs pertaining to T&D and storage should inert' ally focus on conceptual studies to examine and shape the most effective R&D program strategies. The analysis of T&D storage and dispatch issues will be interactive with the formulation and evolution of alternative generation approaches. It is important to adopt an integrated approach in the formulation of T&D and storage R&D programs. A comprehensive set of studies that consider the multiplicity of criteria involved In affecting R&D program formulation would represent a sound up-front investment before any expensive hardware proj ects are initiated. The ma j or strategies for T&D involve efficiency improvements, advanced communication and control technologies, advanced network system management, superconductor transmission lines, and energy storage technologies. The energy losses in T&D are approximately 8 percent of the energy supplied; therefore, 8 percent is the upper bound of direct energy savings that can be obtained by T&D ~ Indirect savings in CO2 emissions by effective environmental dispatch of the generating system (to make maximum use of the non-CO2-emitting generating equipment) may yield greater gains in overall CO2 emission than the savings in direct energy losses in the T&D equipment. system ~ mprovements. Summary There are many approaches for the electricity sector in the United States to achieve significant reductions in the emissions of CO2 relative to the current baseline. The following are the committee's major findings for the various supply strategies considered that should shape an R&D program to address GHGs 64

produced by electric power production. These are highlighted below under the generic categories of primary energy sources used in the electricity sector. No priorities are intended by the order of presentation; it simply reflects the order in which resources are addressed in this chapter of the report. Although supply strategy options are primarily considered here, minimizing emissions of Gags is also critically dependent on achieving high conversion efficiencies both in the electricity produced per unit of primary energy expended and in the services provided by each unit of electricity consumed at the point of use. Increasing end-use efficiency is a particularly important component of any global strategy to reduce and stabilize GHGs in the atmosphere. Fossil Fuels · Achieving substantial reductions in global GHG emissions will severely limit the use of coal as a primary energy source for electric power production unless economically acceptable means can be found for CO2 removal and sequestering. · For the near term, increasing the efficiency of fossil generating equipment is essential. The gas turbine/steam turbine combined cycle and fuel cells are currently available high- efficiency options. Substantial further improvements in the combined cycle, other advanced gas-turbine-based technologies, and fuel cells are possible. The systems driven by natural gas offer options for reducing GHG emissions. · A priority of the coal R&D program should be to ascertain if there are economically and environmentally acceptable approaches for removing and sequestering CO;. If such approaches can be found, coal conversion R&D priorities should be made consistent with their adoption. · The Clean Coal Technology RD&D program has focused on reducing SOx and NOx emissions (i.e., acid rain). The application of clean coal technology in its current configuration could increase GHG emissions per kilowatt-hour produced. If uncorrected, the goals of acid rain reduction and GHG reduction may therefore be at odds. The Clean Coal Technology program should include and emphasize RD&D for high-efficiency conversion of clean coal to electricity. Nuclear Energy · Nuclear energy could be a major option to achieve significant reduction in CO2 emissions in the electricity sector. It requires that the cost of the technology be reduced and its safety increased, if public acceptance of the option is to be achieved. Such acceptance is essential to permit the expansion 65

of nuclear energy in the United States and on a global basis, as might be needed for an effective response to reducing CO2 · ~ emlsslons . · A nuclear reactor or reactors that can penetrate the global market for both developed and developing countries could be important for limiting CO2 emissions in the mid and long term. The United States should take the lead in establishing an international study on the criteria for globally acceptable reactors (see Table 4-3~. ~ Magnetic fusion as a technology option for electricity production is many decades away from realization. The U.S. magnetic fusion program should focus on basic research with greater international collaboration. Renewables · Of the renewable technologies that could be available in the near term, biomass grown renewably and used to produce electricity in gasifier/gas turbine technologies offers potential as an option for a CO2 balanced energy strategy. ~ Significant advances have been made in improving the efficiencies and lowering the costs of photovoltaics, wind, and solar thermal technologies. The industry is currently serving niche markets but has not had the financial strength to support major efforts in manufacturing technology development. Small but steady purchases within the United States and federal assistance in international marketing would continue the significant technical advances and help market adoption of products that have been developed in the last 10 years. TED and Storage ~ An improved and expanded TED system could be an important option for making maximum use of non-CO2-emitting technologies. · New and improved technology for alternating current and direct current systems components is an essential part of developing an efficient, flexible, and reliable network needed to operate the electric power system in the most environmentally acceptable way. · Energy storage capability is important to enhance the viability of intermittent renewables (e.g., wind and solar technologies) and enables greater efficiencies to be realized in the electricity delivery system in general. 66

TRANSPORTATION Energy Use and GHG Emissions In 1987 transportation consumed 22 quads (1035 Btu) and emitted about 440 MTC (as carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere. Four petroleum-based liquid fuels-gasol~ne, diesel, jet fuel (kerosene), and resid-account for about 95 percent of the U.S. transportation energy. The remaining 5 percent comes primarily from natural gas and electricity. Table 4-4 shows how the 22 quads of transportation energy break down by mode of transportation and how much carbon was emitted by each combination of mode and fuel type. Cars and light trucks, fueled principally with gasoline, account for 57 percent of the transportation energy consumed in the transportation sector and also for an equal percentage of the carbon emissions; they are therefore the primary focus of this section. The three fuel-mode combinations that total 25 percent of the sector energy consumption and CO2 production are also briefly addressed. · Heavy gasoline trucks account for 5 percent of the transportation energy. They are not the subject of direct R&D recommendations but will benefit indirectly from much R&D directed at cars and light trucks. · Diesel trucks, buses, and off-highway vehicles account for 12 percent of transportation energy. The diesel engine is an efficient power plant, but has NOx and particulate emission problems that could limit its future use. · Jet-fueled civilian aircraft account for 8 percent of transportation energy. Design of these aircraft is already heavily driven by the need for fuel efficiency, because of the impact of engine fuel consumption on aircraft range and direct operating cost. For purposes of discussion, light trucks and passenger cars are generally combined; yet significant differences exist between the two. The sales of light trucks are about one-third the total light vehicle sales and are growing faster than passenger car sales. The average lifetime of light trucks is longer than that of passenger cars. Fuel economy standards for light trucks are less stringent than for passenger cars. These trucks, of course, often carry payloads but just as often are used for passenger transportation only. From the standpoint of fuel consumed and carbon emitted, light trucks are becoming increasingly important. Technologies in light trucks are very similar to those in passenger cars. Light trucks need special attention with regard to design of incentives that recognize their mission orientation and yet do not allow an underregulated vehicle category. 67

TABLE 4-4 Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions by Mode in the O.S. Transportation Sector, 198746 Combination of Mode and Fuel Type Carbon % of Emitted8 1045 Btu Total MTC Energy Consumed Primary Focus Gasoline cars and light trucks Briefly Addressed Heavy gasoline trucks Diesel trucks, buses, and off-highway vehicles Jet-fueled civilian aircraft Not Considered Military aircraft 0.45 2 9 Water, gasoline + diesel + resid Pipeline, natural gas + electricity Rail, diesel ~ electricity Other Total 12.56 57 254 1.17 5 24 2.61 12 53 1.85 ~ 37 5.63 2S 114 1.33 6 27 0.78 4 12 0.50 2 10 0.78 4 16 3.83 18 74 22.02 100 442 aEstimated in this study. The emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of petroleum-based fuels are expressed in this table as million metric Cons of carbon (MTC) . 68

CFC Considerations Air-conditioning equipment used in the transportation sector is a significant source of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), also potent GHGs. The Montreal Protocol has given greater impetus to use substitutes that are much less damaging environmentally than CFCs, to recover and reuse CFCs from discarded automobile air conditioners and other refrigeration equipment, and to conduct research and develop new working fluids that are environmentally benign. Major Targets for Attention Automobiles and Light Trucks Because they produce 57 percent of the CO emissions of the transportation sector, gasoline-fueled cars an] light trucks are by far the most important target for emissions reduction. Two effective ways have been identified to reduce CO2 emissions from cars and light trucks over the near term: ~ improve vehicle fuel efficiency (or fuel economy), including increased use of smaller vehicles, and · Use transportation systems more efficiently-by increasing automobile and light truck passenger load factors, switching from less efficient to more efficient transportation modes, and using existing modes more efficiently. Improving Vehicle Fuel Efficiency. The technologies to improve new car and light truck fuel efficiency over the next 10 years are limited to those already in hand and those that are nearly ready for commercial application. ,7 Radical innovation in mass-produced automobiles and light trucks is not possible in such a short time. In the United States new cars currently have an average fuel efficiency of about 28 miles per gallon (mpg). The fuel efficiency of the automobile fleet is about 19 mpg. Thus if no further improvements are made, by the year 2000 the U.S. automobile fleet will have a fuel efficiency approaching 28 mpg. Clearly, though, at least modest improvements in new cars are almost sure to occur; industry sources suggest that by the year 2000 new car fuel efficiencies will be about 32 mpg. With additional government policy actions, experts outside the industry believe that new car fuel efficiencies of 45 mpg are practical by the year 2000. These higher efficiencies would be achieved by greater improvements to cars and light trucks than those envisioned by the industry and by changes in the mix of cars purchased each year to more fuel efficient ones. Such policy actions might encompass new car fuel efficiency standards, higher gasoline taxes, taxes on fuel-inefficient cars ("gas guzzler" taxes), and rebates or tax credits on superefficient cars ("gas sipper" incentives). 69

The corporate average fuel economy ~ CAFE ~ standards enacted into law in the mid-197 Os are credited by some experts with spurring the dramatic increases in fuel efficiency of new cars sold in the United States. Others, principally from the automotive industry, disagree, pointing instead to a period of higher gasoline prices and growing foreign competition. As of 1989, however, prices had dropped in real terns to preembargo levels, and much of the foreign competition revolved around vehicle quality and price. Most experts believe, and economic analysis and European experience both suggest, that higher gasoline taxes are not likely to influence new car purchase decisions strongly toward more fuel efficient cars. Gas guzzler taxes have been assessed since 1978, but their effects are obscured by the concurrent applications of fuel efficiency standards. There is no experience with gas sipper incentives. Many other incentives and disincentives can be envisioned, but their effectiveness is hard to predict. using Transportation Systems More Efficiently. Load factors in automobiles used for personal transportation are estimated to be 1,7 passengers per vehicle on average. Even modest improvements in this factor would substantially reduce vehicle miles traveled, with consequent reductions in fuel consumed and carbon dioxide emissions. For example, as shown in Table 4-4, cars and light trucks consumed 12.6 quads of fuel in 1987 under the average load factor of 1.7 passengers per vehicle. If the load factor had been 2.5 instead, the fuel consumed would have dropped to about 8.6 quads; carbon dioxide emissions would have dropped from about 254 MTC to about 173 MTC. Increasing load factors, however, will not be stimulated by vehicle technology but by public policy. A wide range of policies could be considered to induce such changes. Among the more obvious are increased use of high-occupancy vehicle lanes, in congested areas, to speed travel of cars with several occupants; employer-supported (or -required) car and van pooling; substantial fuel taxes; and tailored parking fees and locations to encourage car pooling and discourage low load-factor use of cars. Encouraging people to use public transit systems is another strategy for increasing the efficient use of transportation systems. Some of the public policies listed above, notably higher fuel taxes and higher parking fees (at destinations), would encourage greater use of mass transit. Other public policies include more and better park-and-ride facilities, free parking at mass transit facilities, and improved feeder systems to mass transit facilities. 70

However, only a small part of the demand for personal transportation in the United States is satisfied by mass transit systems; so even if these were used far more extensively than they are now, little energy would be saved and carbon emissions would not be greatly reduced. For example, illustrative calculations suggest that if the use of mass transit could somehow be tripled and travel in personal vehicles reduced correspondingly, only about 10 percent of the energy used for land transportation of people would be saved. Nevertheless, other good and sufficient reasons may exist for supporting mass transit (e.g., to reduce local air pollution and congestion and encourage reductions in urban sprawl). Near Term. It is reasonable to expect some reduction in GHG emissions from the personal transportation subsector by the year 2000. Table 4-5 shows what might be accomplished. The base case for 1987 is taken from Table 4-4. Scenario 1 allows for improvements in fleet fuel efficiency from 19 mpg to 28 mpg and a 20 percent growth in passenger miles traveled (without a change in load factor). Fuel consumption would drop from 12.6 to 10. 3 quads, with a proportional reduction in carbon emissions from 254 to 208 MTC. Scenario 2 takes into account a 30 percent growth in load factors. This would provide further reductions of 2.3 quads in energy consumed and 47 MTC emitted. Scenarios 3 and 4 take into account the effects of more ambitious fuel efficiency standards that might raise fleet averages to about 32 mpg by the year 2000. While these calculations are intended only to be illustrative, they suggest that public policy can reduce emissions of GHGs if there Is the determination to do so. Long Term. Should it be necessary in the post-2000 period to make massive reductions in carbon emissions from the transportation sector, far more drastic changes than those outlined above will be required. In addition to the development and manufacture of more efficient vehicles and the more efficient use of vehicle fleets and systems, new energy sources (or fuels) must be found for vehicles. For cars and light trucks the three most prom' sing possibilities are · alcohol fuels (ethanol and methanol) made from biomass ~ n a fuel production system that absorbs in biomass production at least as much carbon as is emitted in producing and consuming the alcohol fuels; · electrification of cars and light trucks, with the electricity coming from nuclear or renewable-fired generating plants; and 71

TABLE 4-5 Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions from Automobiles and Light Trucks: Illustrative Scenarios for the Year 2000 Fleet Average Passenger Energy Carbon Load Fuel Economy Miles Consumed Emitted Scenario Factor (mug) Traveled* (lOl5Btu) fMTC) Base 1987 1.7 19 - 12.6 254 Scenario 1 1.7 28 1.20 10.3 208 Scenario 2 2.2 28 1.20 8.0 161 Scenario 3 1.7 32 1.20 9.0 181 Scenario 4 2.2 32 1.20 7.0 140 * relative to 1987 72

· hydrogen produced, for example, by electrolysis of water with electricity generated without emissions of GHGs. Cars and light trucks, fueled with electricity or hydrogen, are likely to be limited in range and/or performance compared to conventional vehicles. Vehicles using alcohol fuels will be more nearly comparable to current models but will require larger fuel tanks to achieve equal range. Moreover, large-scale use of any of these alternative fuels implies a massive developmental and industrial effort to create new fuel production plants; electricity generating plants; and, in the case of electric cars, production capabilities for advanced storage batteries. The real possibility must also be taken into account that alternate fuels will not develop into viable means for meeting the massive needs for personal mobility in the first half of the next century. There may be higher-value uses for such alternate fuels. Thus, fossil fuels would remain the only option. Such possibili- ties reinforce the importance of vigorous long-term pursuits of the near-term objectives stated above: technologies to enable develop- ment of very efficient vehicles and means to increase the efficient use of transportation systems. Other Modes of Transportation In this section other modes of transportation are briefly discussed, including diesel-powered vehicles, principally larger intercity freight trucks; large gasoline-powered trucks, used principally to haul freight within cities; and airplanes, principally commercial jet passenger aircraft. Diesel Trucks. Diesel trucks, largely "18-wheelers" used to haul freight over the interstate highway system, annually consume about 2.4 quads. Fuel costs are currently a significant part of the operating costs of these vehicles, and strong economic incentives exist to make these trucks more efficient and productive. These incentives are evidenced by larger more aerodynamic trucks, many with improved engines, that have been appearing for some time on the nation Is roads. While the committee did not consider mode switching in much depth, freight trains are far more efficient than trucks. It has been estimated that freight can be transported by rail for about 500 Btu per ton mile, versus 3,400 for heavy trucks. Such mode switching could be encouraged by proper economic incentives and perhaps by development of improved systems to move truck trailers by rail-for example, road-railers, trailers that permit easy conversion from road to rails and back. 73

Fuel switching might be more promising for diesel trucks than for cars. Alcohol fuels (produced from biomass in a carbon balanced system) would be the fuel of choice; diesel engines, for example, can use methanol with relatively minor changes. Moreover, fuel tank capacity in diesel trucks can be increased more easily than in cars and light trucks to offset the lower energy density of the alcohol fuels. Thus, if alcohol fuels can be produced in a carbon-balanced cycle, heavy trucks are promising applications for such fuels. Large Gasoline-Powered Trucks. Gasoline-powered trucks serve mainly, though not exclusively, to move freight within cities. There are few alternatives to trucks to move such freight, and not much improvement in fuel efficiency is likely to be achieved given the nature of the service these vehicles provide. Some electrification and conversion to diesels can, of course, be carried out. But, as in diesel trucks, the most promising avenue is to switch from petroleum- to biomass-based fuels. Commercial Passenger Aircraft. Commercial aircraft consume about 1.85 quads of fuel; virtually all of this is used by commercial passenger airplanes. General aviation and air freight account for about O.2 quads at most. Modern subsonic j et airframes have been carefully optimized to reduce fuel consumption. Both technical and economic considerations impel such optimization, since both aircraft range and cost per seat mile are important measures of aircraft performance. Aircraft power plants have received similar attention, and at regular intervals jet engine manufacturers introduce engines with improved fuel efficiency. Continuing improvements are being made in lighter structural materials for aircraft and higher-temperature materials for jet engines; thus, improvements in the energy efficiencies of commercial airplanes are likely to continue. Both the development of airframes and engines are supported indirectly by the U.S. Department of Defense's efforts on improved materials, engines, and aerodynamics for military airplanes and by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through its continuing program of aeronautical research. The energy intensity of air travel, as measured in British thermal units per passenger mile, declined at a rate of about 4.6 percent per year from 1972 to 1985. ,8 Such trends toward more fuel- efficient airplanes are likely to continue, but at a somewhat slower pace because the technologies are mature and equipment turnover rates are relatively low. In the near term, fuel switching for airplanes is not feasible. Even in the long term - out to the year 2050-fuel switch' ng on any substantial scale is unlikely. The most likely candidate fuels are liquefied methane and liquefied hydrogen, but both are cryogenic and present serious safety, technical, and economic challenges. 74

Achieving Haj or GAG Emissions Reductions in the Long Term Table 4-6 examines how the transportation sector might look by the middle of the next century. The table is based on many debatable assumptions and is intended only to ~ llustrate the problems associated with maj or reductions in GHG emissions from this sector. The column labeled 1987 shows estimated carbon emissions for that year from Table 4-4. The next column illustrates what might happen without any fuel switching. It is assumed that by the year 2050 the U. S . population will have reached a level 50 percent above that of 1987, with no change from the 1987 average miles traveled per person. This means that passenger miles traveled in 2050 will be 50 percent more than in 1987, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of about 0.65 percent. The fleet average of personal vehicles is assumed to be 50 mpg of gasoline. Car and light truck load factors were placed at 1.7 to 2.5 to calculate the range shown. Other major demands for transportation, driven principally by economic growth, were assumed to increase their energy consumption by 50 percent between 1987 and 2050, as the result of increased demand for service, partly offset by increased efficiency. Such a scenario would lead to carbon emissions of 360 to 410 MTC in the year 2050. By substituting biomass-derived fuels-principally methanol-for diesel fuel in the applications likely to be most amenable to such substitution, carbon emissions might be reduced by about half, to the 190-2 40-MTC range . Some 9 quads of methanol, however, or about 9, 000, 000 barrels per day, would be required to effect this substitution. By further improving personal vehicle fuel efficiency to 100 mpg, emissions could be reduced to 140 to 170 MTC. Finally, by substituting biomass-derived fuels, hydrogen, or electricity for petrolewm-based fuels in personal transportation vehicles, carbon emissions might be reduced to about 100 MTC, or about 20 percent of what they might be without aggressive efficiency improvements and fuel switching. Further significant reductions could be accomplished only by applying new fuels such as methane and hydrogen to aircraft. 75

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R&D Priorities in Transportation Vehicles and systems for the transportation sector are produced by large, technically competent, well-capitalized firms in the United States and abroad. Most if not all of these firms carry out extensive R&D on new products and maintain relatively high rates of market-dri ven innovation in their cars, trucks, aircraft, aircraft engines, and diesel engines. Fuel efficiency, though, has not been a high priority in the research programs of the automobile companies except when they have been spurred by fuel efficiency standards. Thus, without such standards or other incentives, progress on fuel efficiency should not be expected from these companies. Nevertheless, federal R&D can add little of value by allocating resources to technologies nearing readiness for commercial application. Thus, the federal R&D role should encompass the three broad classes of activity to which private interests are unlikely to devote much effort: · research aimed at strengthening the technology base in technologies of special relevance to transportation (e.g., high- temperature materials for engines and light structural materials for vehicle structures); · development of innovative vehicle components and concepts to understand the major technological and engineering issues they present and to permit preliminary assessments of their potential value; and · studies to assess the likely effectiveness of policies to effect changes in the transportation systems of U.S. cities and regions that would lead to reductions in GHG emissions in this sector. Technology Base Research The following areas are especially deserving of attention: · combustion, especially that relating to the most efficient utilization of alternative fuels in spark ignition and diesel engines, and including work to reduce regulated emissions to meet projected standards; · high-temperature structural materials such as advanced ceramics and metals to permit more efficient engines; ~ economical lightweight composite structural materials to reduce vehicle weight; ~ structural materials applicable to engines, transmissions, and load-bearing parts 77 ;

· computational aerodynamics and fluid mechanics addressing vehicle drag reduction and improvement in components such as torque converters; and · tribology, aimed at reduction of engine and drive train frictional losses. Vehicle Components and systems The following vehicle components and systems are recommended for research: · strong effort focused on battery concepts that show the most promise; · hybrid vehicles, including combinations of small heat engines and energy storage devices; · onboard storage mechanisms for alternative fuels, hydrogen and methane, and distribution and storage systems for hydrogen; · onboard fuel cells for generation of propulsive electric power; . onboard photovoltaics for accessory power; · engine systems to achieve better integration of engine, transmission, and ancillary components to improve part-load fuel economy; · optimization of engines and vehicles, for alternative fuels, including work on materials compatibility with methanol and ethanol; · vehicle system studies to address such issues as construction of crash-worthy cars of light structural material, control of emissions in superefficient engines, hybrid configurations that permit continuous full-load operation of internal combustion engines; and · new innovative systems approaches to major transportation problems (e.g., electrified highways to couple, inductively or otherwise, electric vehicles to external sources of energy). Policy studies Continuing efforts should be undertaken by the federal government to 78

· assess the technological potential to improve automobile fuel efficiency while preserving other important attributes of cars such as safety, comfort, performance, and costs; · identify and analyze new incentives to effect fuel economy improvements, load factor growth, and mode shifts; · analyze ways to phase in a substantial gasoline tax while using revenues to offset its regressive impact; ~ monitor results of policies (e.g. , South Coast Air Quality Management District) adopted to encourage car pooling and the use of alternative fuels and electric vehicles; these results could well have application In the future to policies that might be adopted nationally; and . monitor the effectiveness of actions to control CFCs. An Assessment of DOE Transportation Research The transportation R&D program, under DOE's Office of Conservation, includes the following programs that are pertinent to GHG emissions:, Program Automotive gas turbine Low heat rejection diesel Electric vehicle battery R&D Electric vehicle propulsion Advanced materials Total FY 1990 Funding (millions of current $) $12 5 8 6 $46 In the committee's estimation, the automotive gas turbine engine is unlikely to become the power plant of choice for cars or trucks, unless (in the case of heavy trucks) diesel engines are not able to comply with the kind of regulated emission standards that are likely to be developed in the future. Thus, the vehicular gas turbine engine should be considered a backup power plant option. At this time it does not merit further support for engine development. Nevertheless, engines that have already been developed under the Advanced Turbine Technology Applications program should continue to be used as test beds for evaluating ceramic materials. This role is merited. The low heat rej ection diesel engine deserves more attention than it is currently getting. Its application in both heavy and 1 ight trucks should be explored . However, waste heat recapture 79

should not be investigated until the question of whether ceramics can be run successfully in the diesel engine is resolved. With regard to electric vehicles, the committee believes that the main barrier appears to be the limited capability of batteries to store and deliver energy, and that is where the research should be performed. DOE should assess the nether of different battery types being worked on and eliminate those that do not survive a strong unbiased assessment. Propulsion work should be deferred until the battery problem is solved. Advanced materials research, including ceramics, can enhance energy efficiency of a number of applications and is endorsed by the committee. RE:8IDENrIAL AND COMMERCIAL BUILI)ING8 Energy Doe and GaG Emissions The buildings sector in the United States is highly diverse, consisting of single-family houses and a variety of multifamily housing units in the residential subsector and office, retail, restaurant, hospital, hotel, warehouse, school, and other construction types in the commercial subsector. Within each of these building types is a wide range of sizes, energy loads for heating and cooling, ventilation, lighting, installed equipment, and occupancy. Finally, these buildings are located in areas of vastly different climates. In addition to this diversity in use and climate, technologies are developed, deployed, and operated in this sector that involve a wide variety of organizations-custom home builders to tract developers, architects, design engineers, appliance and mechanical equipment manufacturers, construction firms, lighting engineers and manufacturers, and building owners and managers. The number of decision makers involved in energy-related issues in the buildings sector approaches the total population of building users from homeowners and tenants to shopkeepers, office workers, and building managers. These factors add considerable complexity to the development and implementation of energy-efficient technologies in this sector. Table 4-7 summarizes current annual energy use in the buildings sector by major category of service demand and by fuel type for residential and commercial applications. Table 4-8 presents estimates of the total current emissions of CO2 arising from this energy use, including electricity. 80

TABLE 4-7 Current Energy Use in the Buildings Sector Application Energy Use 1012 Btu Gas Of1 Electric Res identlalb Total Other Total Primary Space heating 3450 950 75() 800 5950 7450 hater heating 780 70 390 20 1260 2040 Air conditioning 10 390 400 1180 Refrigeration 0 570 570 1710 Cooking 260 170 430 770 Clothes drying 60 170 230 570 Clothes washing 0 20 20 60 Dishwashlng 0 30 30 90 Other 0 500 4S0 70 1020 1920 Total residential 4560 1520 2940 890 9910 15790 Commerc ialC Space heating 1580 1000 590 3170 4350 Water heating 80 50 40 170 250 Space cooling 30 780 810 2370 Lighting 0 860 860 2580 Cogeneration 120 0 120 0c Cooking 250 ? 250 250 Other 330 320 20 670 1310 Total commercial 2390 1050 2590 20 6,050 11,110 Total residential and 6950 commercial 2570 5530 aEstimates from various sources for energy use in 1985-1988.49~ 91C 15,960 26,900 bTotal primary is the stem of oil, gas, and other energy use together with three times electric energy use. CTotal primary is calculated for residential above except for gas use in cogeneration, which is assumed to displace an equal amount of primary energy. gas only 81

TABLE 4-8 Current CO2 Emissions by the Buildings Sectored CO2 Emissions. MTC/year From Fossil Attributable to Energy Use Fuel Use Electricity Use Residential Space heating 69.3 36.4 Water heating 12.7 18.9 Air conditioning 0.1 18.9 Refrigeration - 27.7 Cooking 3.8 8.3 Clothes drying 0.9 8.3 Clothes washing - 1.0 Dishwash~ng - 1.5 Other 10.2 21.9 Total residential 97.0 142.8 Commercial Space heating 43.2 28.7 Water heating 2.2 1.9 Space cooling 0.4 37.9 Lighting - 41.8 Cogeneration 1.7 - CookingC 3.6 ? Other 4.8 15.5 Total commercial 55.9 125.8 Total residential and commercial 152.9 268.6 Calculation based on Table 4-7. CO2 emissions expressed as millions of metric tons of carbon (MTC) per year. The conversion factors (in MTC/10is Btu of fuel use) are follows: natural gas, 14.5; oil, 20.3; coal, 25.1. bElectric generation mix: 10% of natural gas, 5% of oil, 55% coal, and 30% non-CO2. CGas only. 82

MaJor Targets for Attention Table 4-9 presents the technologies and practices that in the committee's view will be the most important contributors to achieving large reductions in GHG emissions in the buildings sector, in both the near term and the long term. TABLE 4-9 Potential Contribution of Building Technologies/Practices to Reduction of GHG Emissions. Technology/Practice Energy Conversion Technologies High-efficiency gas heating Advanced heat pumps High-efficiency cooling High-efficiency hot water Solar hot water Solar photovoltaics Co gene rat ion Energy storage Commercial refrigeration Building Components and Systems Controls Advanced windows High-efficiency lighting Efficient residential appliances Efficient office equipment Insulation Construe tion materials Design/Practice 2 1 2 2 - Practice: data, construction, o&Mb 3 Community design Design for manufacturing, assembly and operation Res idential Commerc ial Near Long Near Long Term Term Term Term 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 - 1 1 2 3 2 - 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 - 3 2 2 3 3 3 1 3 1 3 - 1 3 a Rating scale is as follows: 1 ~ can make some contribution to GHG reduction, 2 ~ can make considerable contribution to GHG reduction, 3 ~ can make substantial contribution to GHG reduction. b O&M, operation and maintenance 83

Path to Reduce Emissions Reduced Energy Cornice Demand A primary strategy for reducing GHG emissions is to apply new technology to reduce the demand for energy in buildings. The most effective means in the existing residential market sector is through building envelope retrofits. Both analysis and demonstration of envelope retrofits have shown savings on the order of one-third to greater than one-half.2, ~ Typical retrofit measures include increased wall, floor, attic, and duct insulation; window replacement or the addition of advanced-technology storm windows; and measures to reduce infiltration of outside air, including weatherstripping and the installation of outside door closers. These results would suggest that the space heating load of older houses can be reduced by approximately 50 percent. For example, if 30 percent of the unimproved pre-1970 houses could be retrofitted, an energy savings of approximately 0.8 quads could be expected. Envelope improvements that reduce space heat demand also contribute to reductions in space cooling requirements. However, the analysis In the above-referenced reports shows smaller percentage improvements In cooling demand, on the order of 10 to 30 percent. Nevertheless, these savings are electric peak power reductions, so they translate into significant primary energy savings and peak power savings, adding to their cost-effectiveness. New technology for building envelopes will have little impact on the energy service demands of existing commercial buildings. However, the committee estimates that energy use can be reduced by at least 10 percent through improved operating procedures in buildings, such as optimal use and control of HVAC equipment, lighting, and other office equipment. Research on appropriate lighting levels for peak productivity and on the necessary ventilation level for indoor air quality may allow some small reductions in service demand in the near term. Energy-saving improvements can also be incorporated into existing commercial buildings when remodeling is done for new tenants. Improved operating procedures in existing buildings can be brought about through the use of building automation and control technologies, in conjunction with better training of operating personnel. The building automation industry is now about 20 years old. Its development coincided with and was made possible by the evolution of computer technology. Today's microcontrollers make comprehensive control systems possible and practical5 for many existing buildings as well as for all new buildings . 24~2 Despite this technical capability, building control systems "are among the 84

most underused and misunderstood devices used in operating a modern building. t'24 Further R&D on usability of controls, as well as training and motivation, is necessary and will yield both future energy savings and GHG emission reductions. Human control systems (shutting off lights, fans, etc., when not needed) could also have important impacts. Diagnostic and other feedback mechanisms can be developed to enhance such systems as well as to motivate appropriate implementation. New building envelope technology can have a major impact on reducing the space-conditioning demands of future commercial buildings. Wall and building cladding technologies can reduce heat loss through walls by a factor of more than 50 percent. ASHRAM 90 (published by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers) establishes a standard for wall heat loss (U value) of 0.155 Btu/h/ft2/°F for a climate of 5,000 heating degree days. Research is under way on evacuated silica aerogel insulation materials that achieve U values of less than 0.02 for a 3-tn.-thick panel .26 Similarly, windows have already been designed that control both convective heat transfer and infrared emission. Windows with U values of 0.2 are already available;27 R&D is under way that will reduce the Uvalue to 0.1 or lower if winter solar gain is considered. Roofing and ceiling technologies are on similar paths in terms of convective heat loss. Reflective roof materials and rooftop evaporative cooling systems are also available. The possibility of constructing a building that requires virtually no energy to make up for convective or radiative gains/losses is a reasonable goal. Space-conditioning demands will be dominated by requirements for ventilating air and for removing heat generated by building equipment and occupants. Increased Efficiency of Energy Conversion All of the service demands of the building sector are supplied by energy conversion devices, such as furnaces, air conditioners, or light bulbs. In the area of residential space heating, technology is already available to significantly improve average heating efficiencies, and R&D is under way that can lead to even greater improvements. Table 4-10 shows the improvements achievable. 85

TABLE 4-10 Space Heating Equipment Seasonal Performance Factor (SPF)a Technology Current NAECA b Today's Best Mix Standard Best Prototype Gas furnace 0.6C 0.78 0.95 Zoned gas furnaces NA NA NA 1.2 Gas sorption heat pump NA NA NA 1.7 Gas engine heat pump NAe NA 1.3e 1.7f Electric furnaces 0.98 NA 0.98 Electric heat pump9 1.80 2.0 2.60h NA, not available. aSeasonal performance factor (SPF) is a measure of useful heat output divided by energy input averaged over seasonal temperatures and demand variations. SPF is equivalent to efficiency in simple combustion furnaces but can be much higher in heat pumps that extract energy from the outdoor air. National Appliance Energy Conservation Act of 1987. CBased on a comparison of reported gas consumption for space heating in the American Gas Association's Househeating Survey and DOE's Residential Energy Consumption Survey versus modeled heating demand.22 Modulating zoned gas furnaces achieve improved SPF by individual room control of heating requirements. This is not really an efficiency improvement but is a measure of reduced demand for space heat in a residence. eGas engine heat pumps are available commercially in 3apan.28 None are currently marketed in the United States. prototype system currently in field test. 9If electricity efficiencies were given in terms of source energy to generate electricity, it would be necessary to multiply these SPFs by 0.3 to 0.4. Two high-efficiency electric heat pumps have recently entered the market. 86

The National Appliance Energy Conservation Act of 1987 (NAECA) standards take effect on January 1, 1992. Given an average life of approximately 20 years for a gas furnace, about hal f of the furnaces in place in the year 2 0 0 0 should meet the 78 percent minimum efficiency standard. For the most part these will replace the oldest, lowest-efficiency furnaces in the current mix. Therefore, with no further action the national average gas furnace efficiency should reach about 70 percent by the year 2000. A vigorous equipment replacement program could achieve a goal of installing 78 percent efficient furnaces in 60 percent of existing houses and 90+ percent efficient furnaces in 40 percent of existing houses. The result would push the national average gas furnace efficiency to 85 percent with a 35 percent energy savings compared to the current mix. Successful introduction of gas heat pumps would have even greater effects. Similar impacts can be expected in electric heat pump energy use. If the average heat pump life (including the compressor) is close to 12 years, by the year 2000 almost all electric heat pumps will meet the minimum NAECA standards for heating. Very significant reductions can be achieved through retrofitting existing heating and cooling equipment with existing technologies. R&D can be expected to result in continued increases in efficiency. Table 4-11 shows the efficiencies for installed capacity, currently available technologies and those on the drawing board. A study conducted by the city of Phoenix showed that replacing existing equipment with the current state of the art as well as optimizing capacity (most installed equipment was significantly oversized) would result in average energy use reductions of 45 percent. The study concluded that these retrofits would have payback times of 1 to 7 years; 12 of the 16 cases analyzed had payback times of less than 3 years. Given the expected lifetime of 20 years for most HVAC systems, replacing at least 50 percent of existing systems with high- efficiency systems in the near term is reasonable. Success in such a retrofit program would reduce, in the near term, heating energy use in buildings by 10 to 15% and cooling energy use by 20 percent. Additional savi ngs could be expected in the long term as a result of further retrof it of existing technology and successful R&D on the concepts shown in Table 4-11. R&D on lighting technologies has already resulted in major improvements that are available but not in general use. These technologies include compact fluorescent bulbs installed in conventional incandescent sockets, improved incandescent and fluorescent lamps, fluorescent lamp ballasts, and improved fixtures. These technologies increase the lighting efficacy from 87

today's standard light bulb level of 5-10 lumens/watt (lm/W) to 20- 25+ lm/W for the best incandescent bulbs and 90-100 lm/W for the best fluorescent systems. 32~33~34. Installation of high-efficiency lighting is also very cost- effective in most building applications.32 R&D is already under way that has the potential to further increase lighting ef5ficiency to 100 lm/W in the near term and ultimately to 200 lm/W. In the near term a 40 to 50 percent reduction in the energy used for lighting existing commercial buildings should be feasible. Improved lighting technologies provide a secondary benefit by reducing the building cooling load, offset slightly by an increased winter heating load. lighting technologies provide a secondary benefit Cogeneration technologies offer significant potential for energy and GHG emission reductions. As much as 40,000 MW of demand in the existing stock of buildings is estimated to be suitable for cogeneration. 36 - ~ Since cogeneration systems provide both electric and thermal power to a building, they displace a roughly equal amount of energy otherwise required for the thermal loads of the building. The thermal energy generated can be used year-round in many applications, especially if the system is integrated with a thermally driven absorption cooling system. If gas-fired cogeneration were successfully installed in all of these potential applications, GHG emissions for the commercial building sector would be cut by 6 percent. TABLE 4-11 Space Cooling Equipment SPFa Technology Current Mix Today's Best Best Prototype Electric air conditioner Electric heat plump Commercial electric chiller Gas air conditioner Gas heat pump Gas absorption chiller Gas engine chiller Gas engine chiller ~ absorption 2.2 2.4 3.0 0.5 NA 0.9 NA NA 3.0 4.5 5.0 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.9 3.6 5.5 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.7 2.0 NA, not available. a SPF defined as in Table 4-10. 88

Further improvements in efficiency and operation of refrigeration equipment is also possible. Direct and indirect evaporative (adiabatic) cooling and other retrofits can cheaply boost outputs by desuperheating hot gas entering condensers, precooling air entering air-cooled condensers, and subcooling liquid refrigerants leaving condensers.37 Substantial improvements in the coefficient of performance (COP) of gas-fired sorption refrigeration systems are also possible. R&D is under way with the goal of increasing COPs from 0.6 to 1.0. 38'39 Fuel Substitution Gas technologies, even with lower SPFs, generate fewer GHGs than electric technologies because of the power plant emissions associated with electricity generation. 40 Replacement of electric resistance space and water heating represents a viable strategy for near-term reductions in GHG emissions. For example, the current residential water heating market is composed of approximately 38 percent electric resistance water heaters. 4, Replacement of one- half of these with 90 percent efficient gas water heaters would reduce GHG emissions from residential water heating by 25 percent. GHG emissions are also reduced by substitution of gas for oil. Nearly one-third of the commercial space-heating energy is provided by oil-fired systems. Replacement of half of these with efficient gas space-heating systems would reduce GHG emissions from commercial space heating by nearly 25 percent. Solar water heating technology is a proven and effective means to reduce nonrenewable energy use by substituting renewable energy. If solar-assisted water heating, providing a 50 percent solar input, penetrated 10 percent of the existing residential market by the year 2000, water heating energy use would be reduced by 10 percent. Impressive cost reductions have been made in photovoltaics that should soon make the systems viable for housing. Reductions in the thermal envelope, lighting, mechanical, and appliance electrical loads will help interface reasonably sized photovoltaic systems. Utilities should be encouraged to view roof areas as "prime real estate" for photovoltaic panels, which could offset daytime loads from industrial and commercial customers. Gas-fired cooling systems are now available, and improved systems are under development. Engine chillers, absorption chillers, and desiccant-based systems are obtainable. Currently, such gas systems provide only a few percent of the cooling requirements of the commercial building sector. They offer several advantages, including ease of integration with cogeneration systems and (for desiccant or sorption systems) no dependence on CFC or other GHG-based refrigerants. If 20 percent of the commercial cooling needs were provided by gas-fired systems, GHG emissions for cooling existing buildings would be reduced by about 25 percent. 89

summary Table 4-12 summarizes the potential impacts of technology on reducing energy use and GHG emissions in the buildings sector. TABLE 4-12 Potential CO2 Reductions in the Buildings Sector. Percent Reductionb in CO2 Near Term Long Term Reduce energy service demand Retrofit existing homes 2.9 0.9 Advanced construction of new buildings 5.6 24.7 Improved building operating practice 4.5 4.5 Increase equipment efficiency H~gh-efficiency heating and heat pumps 8.7 17.8 Cogeneration 1.4 6.9 High-efficiency lighting 5.9 5.9 Use alternate fuels Replace half of oil heat with gas 3.1 3.1 10% penetration of solar photovoltaics NAC 6.9 Gas/solar water heating 1.7 2.5 Impact of exiles 30.0 60.0 Other impacts 25% Savings in other areas 7.0 NAC 50% Savings in other areas NAC 14.0 Total potential impact 37.0 74.0 aEstimates based on analysis in this study by the Buildings Panel. bPercent reduction from total CO2 emissions ~ including those due to primary electric generation) for the residential and commercial sector per unit of service provided (i.e., per household or commercial square foot). Thus, these do not represent reductions from current levels since growth in the number of households and commercial square footage is not included. CEither not applicable or not expected to have impact in time frame shown. impacts are not additive. Obvious double counting (e.g., demand reduction and equipment efficiency) has been accounted for; other effects (e.g., cogeneration, solar, photovoltaics, electric) could result in some double counting, especially in the long term. 90

Over the long term, energy use and CO2 emissions (per household for residential space and per square foot for commercial space) can be reduced by more than 70 percent. The long-term results must be viewed with the recognition that they are based on projected energy use and GHG emissions in the year 2000. Energy use patterns will likely be quite different then, especially if the near-term R&D and implementation actions recommended are successful. For example, since building space-conditioning energy requirements will be greatly reduced, energy use for office equipment, appliances, etc., will become more significant. This explains the growing importance of these technology areas in the long term, as was shown in Table 4-9. RED needs and Priorities Near Teak The most important near-term impacts will result from technologies that are already developed but that, for a variety of reasons, are not yet fully implemented. The highest-priority near- term R&D will focus on verifying the reliability and durability, cost-effectiveness, and performance of these technologies. The following areas of R&D are considered most important to meet the near-term target for GHG emission reductions. Energy Conversion Technologies. As Table 4-9 indicated, high- efficiency gas heating, high-effic~ency water heating, and cogeneration are expected to provide the greatest impact on reducing GHGs in the near term. While the greatest impacts will result from the application of technologies already developed and commercially available, this does not eliminate the need for R&D that further improves efficiency or is specifically targeted to the reduction of GHG emissions. Important examples in the energy conversion area include advanced heat pumps, gas cooling/refrigeration, alternate refrigerants, engine durability and performance, and thermal storage. Building Components and Systems. Table 4-9 showed that the greatest near-term benefits are expected from advanced windows, appliances, and insulation in the residential sector; in the commercial sector the benef its are from controls and high- efficiency lighting. Although advanced technologies are available in most of these areas, R&D has the potential to produce improvements on the order of a factor of 2 in the case of 1 ighting and windows. In the case of residential appliances, very little has been done to develop products with reduced energy usage. Examples of 91

important R&D needs include controls and electronics; low-energy appliances-cooking, clothes drying, dishwashing; non-CFC blowing agents for foam insulation; advanced windows-low-emissivity, gas-filled, improved frames; and advanced lighting. Design/Practice. Perhaps the greatest near-term reductions in GHG emissions can be achieved through improved operating practices. Although this area must be addressed primarily through various implementation approaches, several areas of R&D can have significant impact. Furthermore, this is a neglected R&D area probably because it tends toward the social and behavioral sciences rather than the physical sciences or engineering. Examples of important R&D include the following: · Decision-making methods-"expert't systems42 for (1) selecting the most cost-effective HVAC and envelope technologies, (2) commissioning these buildings and systems to ascertain if the design is successfully installed, and (3) operating the buildings and systems as designed. · Motivation and other social science research- identification of motivational approaches to more rapid introduction and, equally important, proper application of new technologies. · Data collection and dissemination-collection and wide dissemination of data on both energy end use and technologies for energy efficiency, including information to the architects and engineers who design buildings. Long Term Table 4-9 shows that in the long term energy conversion technologies diminish in impact compared to building components and systems or design/practice. This is because the demand for space conditioning, especially heating, will be greatly reduced by building design and operation. Advanced technology in all areas of energy use not affected by building design will make important contributions. Sustained basic and applied research is needed, beginning in the near term, on a wide variety of topics. Energy Conversion Technologies. While existing energy conversion cycles offer major efficiency improvements, further opportunities may merit research programs in areas such as · Sorption heat pump, cooling, and refrigeration cycles-absorption and adsorption cycles thermally driven by solar energy or a combination of gas (natural or biomass-derived methane or hydrogen) and solar energy. 92

· Solar photovoltaic-especially systems that can be integrated with a building's design, including photovoltaic coatings for windows. · Advanced cogeneration systems-advanced heat engine systems and solid oxide fuel cells. Building Components and Systems. R&D on building components and systems promises maj or impact on reducing GHG emissions from the buildings sector in the long term. Key research areas are as follows: · Superinsulation-building walls, windows, and roofs as well as refrigeration systems, hot water storage, and other energy applications would all benefit from R&D on advanced insulation materials; non-CFC and non-GHG foams and evacuated panels are also important research avenues. ~ Lighting-lighting requirements, optimal lighting wavelengths, and efficient lighting devices. · Electronics-advanced controls and electronic systems for building energy management; high-efficiency electronics for reduced energy use for office equipment with the secondary benefit of reduced cooling loads. · Construction materials-materials for building structures, finishes, and furnishings with less embodied energy and high carbon content; high growth rate structural timber; other biological materials. Design/Practico. New technology for building design, commissioning, operation, and maintenance as well as low-energy, low-GHG emission concepts for community design can have significant impact on the buildings sector by the year 2050. Important research areas are as follows: ~ Effects of the built environment on human behavior, health, and safety-spatial configurations and environmental conditions in buildings have profound effects on human performance, productivity, comfort, morale, health, and safety; interdisciplinary research is needed to better understand and predict these effects. ~ Diagnostic technologies for buildings-appropriate research paths include nondestructive diagnostics to determine conditions of the building envelope and environmental control equipment of existing buildings; accurate and real-time diagnostic tools for quality assurance and condition assessment at construction sites; acoustic, electromagnetic, or other diagnostic concepts; establishing or verifying standards for ventilation, lighting, and air quality. 93

· Community des~gn-urban and community planning techniques based on an improved understanding of the effects on human behavior from the above-recommended research. Assessment of the Federal RED Program From FY 1974 (when the first legislated mandate for federally supported building energy R&D was enacted) to FY 1977, the conservation R&D budget grew at a very rapid rate from $12.8 million (in 1975 dollars) to $104.4 million (in 1977 dollars). In the same time period, the buildings budget (at the Energy Research and Development Administration, the predecessor agency to DOE) grew from 82.4 million to $35.6 million. With the establishment of DOE in 1977, the buildings budget increased modestly, given the inflation rates of this period, from $63.4 million in FY 1978 to $91.3 million in FY 1981. These programs led to the commercial introduction of such products as the heat pump water heater, solid-state ballasts, compact fluorescent bulbs, reflective window films, and advanced motor compressors. DOE also funded a vigorous solar energy research program that affected the building sector. In 1981, at the urging of the new Reagan administration, Congress reduced DOE's FY 1981 buildings appropriation to $64.2 million and in FY 1982 appropriated $42.8 million. Since 1982 the buildings appropriation budget has been about $35 million. Throughout those years the administration has requested about $15 million annually for a few long-term, high-risk research programs, but Congress has added funds to enable a minimum critical level of activity and has initiated new programs such as least-cost utility planning. During this time the administration requested to zero out the Center for Building Technologies (CBT) program at the National Institute for Standards and Technology, but Congress has continued to fund it at about $3.9 million annually for nonenergy programs. DOE has continued to fund CBT for energy conservation at a reduced level of about $1.9 million annually; DOE has eliminated support of solar energy research at CBT. For FY 1991 the DOE buildings budget will likely be close to the FY 1990 appropriation of $36.8 million and activities will include near-term technology and prototype development. CBT will also likely be funded at its current level. Despite some important results from past R&D on buildings, the current activities are not adequate to address all of the priority R&D activities cited above. For example, the FY 1990 DOE budget for the Buildings and Community Systems programs of $3 6 . 8 million is a minuscule percentage of the roughly $4 00 billion spent annually for construction. Also, since the major 94

near-term impacts will come from implementation of existing technologies, DOE ' s budget should include funds for implementation, R&D. One element of implementation R&D could include selected demonstrations although past demonstration activities have not been particularly successful. The committee recommends that DOE conduct a review of federally funded demonstration efforts in energy conservation in order to identify the factors that made some succeed and others fail. In conducting such an evaluation the definition of success must be based on whether the demonstration led to significant market adoption of the relevant technologies. The committee also notes that the federal government itself constructs and operates a large nether of buildings and is a major energy consumer. The total energy bill for the federal government is $8.5 billion annually, of which $3.7 billion is for buildings. For building-related energy conservation measures across the entire federal spectrum, $51.7 million is allocated or 1.4 percent of the federal building energy bill. To help reduce its energy use, the government has established a coordinating program called the Federal Energy Management Program. This program is funded at an annual level of $~.2 million. Government buildings are an obvious target for an implementation of energy-saving technologies but are not currently used for this purpose. The national laboratories, which have developed many energy-saving technologies, have tried but have not succeeded in securing funds to implement any of their technologies at their own government-owned facilities .35 The committee believes that a review of DOE's Building and Community Systems program is appropriate with participation from the National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, General Services Administration, Gas Research Institute, Electric Power Research Institute, national laboratories, external industry, and university and public interest groups to set the nation's R&D agenda for the l990s. Technology-Adoption Strategies Although many past energy technology development efforts cannot be labeled failures, market acceptance of efficient equipment has been slow. Analysis of these technologies continues to show that they offer clear life-cycle cost savings and reasonable payback periods to purchasers. Some of these problems can be offset by providing increased and accurate information. Several studies (see particularly reference 43 and its cited 1 iterature) have attempted to analyze consumer 95

behavior in terms of investment for increased energy efficiency. A major findings is that payback periods for investments in increasing energy efficiency of most household appliances are 2 years or less. Such studies conclude that the market for energy efficiency is not performing well. The factors responsible for this situation are more pronounced in the buildings sector than in any other sector. Such factors include the following: · Complexity of the decision-making structure, where buildings are often neither designed nor purchased by the ultimate tenants, and decisions are made instead by the builder, architect, construction firm, or financial institution. · Difficulty of providing accurate information and feedback to millions of decision makers. · Lack of education/training of building operations and maintenance personnel. · Lack of energy-saving incentives for utilities or other institutions that are in a position to centralize decision making and provide access to the necessary capital. For these reasons the buildings sector must rely to a greater extent on demonstration projects and national user facilities" to ensure that cost-ef fective technologies are actually adopted. The following six actions must be considered to overcome these problems. These actions need to be followed for both the near- and long-term time frames to achieve the GHG emissions reduction potential of the buildings sector by ensuring the adoption of the technologies that result from the R&D programs recommended above. Make Energy Service Markets Work If energy were sold as a service rather than as a commodity, many problems could be overcome. The concept of least-cost energy service is not a new one, 45 but it has not been widely accepted. There are several approaches that might make energy service markets work. Two are considered to be the most likely to succeed: · Pricing. One way to overcome the very high discount rates of many decision makers is to significantly increase the price of energy, thereby shortening payback periods. Increased attention to all energy use would also follow. Energy or environmental impact taxes are certainly one approach to increasing energy prices. Revenue neutral" approaches also have been proposed and are worthy of consideration. Such approaches would place 96

. penalties on purchasers (or owners) of less energy efficient homes, buildings, equipment, etc., while providing for subsidies to purchasers of more efficient systems. The analogy is the "gas guzzler" tax but with the revenues being used to lower the price of vehicles providing high-m~leage performance. Utility Regulation. Revised utility rate-making regulation could change the incentive structure for both gas and electric utilities. Reducing building energy consumption by SO to 75 percent or greater reduces utility revenues almost proportionally in today's rate- making environment. The utilities are strategically placed to serve as unified decision makers in the buildings sector. Currently they do not have the incentives that would lead to reduced energy use and reduced GHG emissions. However, the committee notes that a few utility commissions in different areas of the country are beginning to address this problem. Significant, and difficult-to-implement, changes are needed in utility regulation. For example, if a utility billed a residential customer for degree-hours of comfort provided (presumably based on a simple measurement of the indoor and outdoor temperatures), the utility could make cost-effective decisions and earn the same rate of return for its stockholders. The utility could make money and earn a return just as easily by deciding to add insulation, as by selling gas or electricity. Provide Education and Training The implications of energy use on the environment and the efficient use of energy must be taught. Effective publications, widely disseminated, can provide information to the user. Methods encouraging private sector marketers to include energy use information on all products ought to be pursued. Such methods might specify requirements for labeling energy-related products. For example, labeling windows and other building materials should be considered as well as energy-consuming devices. Training programs for equipment installers, equipment operators, and building managers should be strongly encouraged. Such programs should exploit modern information and training technologies, such as interactive video disks and expert systems. As noted earlier In this report, improved information is needed on how energy is used in buildings, from construction through operation. Improve Building Practices The practices used in planning, designing, constructing, installing, operating, and maintaining buildings and the energy- 97

providing and energy-using equipment need to be improved. This requires improved standards and methods that recognize the importance of energy and environmental concerns. Such standards need not always be mandated; model codes or standards are often broadly accepted. In California but lders have the option of using a set of prescribed formulas for construction or optimizing the home design based on a computer model. The optimized designs tend to be both more energy ef f icient and cheaper to build. Approximately two-thirds of the new homes in California are now designed this way. In the Pacific Northwest, model codes developed by the Northwest Power Planning Council have been adopted as the de facto standard for construction. The potential international aspects of quality standards should also be considered. Building materials and practices have not generally been a part of international commodity transactions. A set of internationally agreed-to practices for building construction that minimize GHG emissions would serve to expand the markets and encourage increased private sector investment. Accepted measurement and diagnostic practices applied during and after construction of buildings are also needed to help meet GHG emission reduct' on goals. Provide Feedback and Motivation Proper operation and maintenance of energy-using equipment, control systems, lighting systems, etc., are important. Their effectiveness depends on the successful development and implementation of expert systems for diagnosis and feedback to building managers and operators. Such systems are expected to have major impacts only in the long term. Motivation of managers of multifamily residential buildings is equally important. 46 Develop Urban Design Practices Urban design practices could have a major impact on energy use, far beyond the building sector alone. Federal, state, and local policies should be developed with greater attention to energy and environmental implications. Many of the interrelationships between factors such as density, vehicle transportation, and use of mass transit are not yet well enough understood to establish such pal icier . Research on these issues is needed to establ ish effective policies. Apply Foreign Technology A near-term implementation plan may include the testing and further development of an existing foreign technology. For 98

example, Japanese frost-free refrigerators that meet the DOE 1993 efficiency standards have been sold since 1986. Japanese refrigerators have been more efficient than U.S. models since 1980, but this fact was discovered by accident and only minimal monitoring and testing of foreign products have been done to date. INDUSTRY Energy Ose and GAG Emissions The industrial sector consumes 29 quads of energy per year, which is 36 percent of the total U.S. energy consumption. A breakdown of fossil fuel energy use and CO2 emissions within key manufacturing industries is presented in Table 4-13 for 1985, the most recent year for which such data are available. About 40 percent of current total industrial energy use is for process heat; about 30 percent is for services provided primarily by electric power, notably machine drive; and about 20 percent is for chemical feedstock, construction asphalt, and metallurgical coal (which can be considered a feedstock). Industry is currently the source of about 35 percent of the total U.S. CO2 emissions. Releases from inorganic carbonates used, for example, to produce glass and cement are included. Such miscellaneous sources of CO; are responsible for 5 to 10 percent of the industrial total, with combustion of fossil fuels responsible for over 90 percent. Maj or Targets for Attention The efficiency of energy use in industry can be improved and the form of energy used can be altered to reduce GHG emissions with existing technology, but both come at a cost. Industry chooses its uses and types of energy based on competitive economics. A reduction or switch cannot simply be mandated without repercussions. U.S. companies seek cost-effective locations throughout the world for their production and processing operations. Unilateral act' ons by the United States to stabilize GHGs must consider international industrial mobility, in order to avoid exporting industry and associated CO2 emissions. Restated, U.S. technical capability to make rapid changes in processes and products is constrained by economic factors. Industry is diverse. Furthermore, each industrial subsector differs from the others, and wide differences in processes exist even within a subsector. Thus, opportunities for reducing the emissions of &HGs have to be approached on multiple fronts. In addition, enormous changes have occurred within industry over the past 50 years, and changes will continue. Major shifts in the U.S. industrial base are just as likely, arising from developments in biotechnology, from recycling, and from material substitution, as well as shifts resulting from environmental considerations such as global warming and climate change. This should temper any rush to impose actions not justified by other relevant considerations. 99

Table 4-13 Fossil Fuel Use and Carbon Emissions by {J. S. . Manufacturing Industries, 198547 Natural Gas Energy uses 1o'2 Btu s ions , Petrole~nb Emis- Energy ~mis- Usea 1042 Mu MrC signs MTC Coal Energy Uses 1ol2 Btu Emis - s ions MTC Petroleum 717 10 165 5 8 0 Chemicals 1680 24 855 17 332 8 Primary metals 693 10 60 ~ 1131 28 Paper 172 3 406 8 309 8 Stone, clay 386 6 53 1 323 8 and glass . . . aFuel use is expressed in 1042 Btu and carbon emissions in million metric tons (MTC). Conversion factors are expressed in million metric tons of carbon (MTC) per 10'5 BTU of fuel: Natural gas, 14.5; petroleum, 20.3; coal, 25.1. bPetroleum values are aggregates of residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, and liquid petroleum gas. Options open to industry to reduce GHG emissions fall into four areas: · improvement of energy efficiency, · fuel switching, recycling of materials, and use of biomass-derived fuels and feedstocks. Adoption of these options is subject both to the availability of technology and to economic factors. Relevant R&D opportunities and technology implementation issues are discussed in the sections that follow. Biomass for fuels and feedstocks represents a potentially new resource appl icable to the other market sectors as well and is an ontion to be viewed over a longer time horizon. Since the production and use of biomass will require the establishment of a new industry infrastructure or substantial modification of existing industries, a brief perspective on this is provided in an addendum to this chapter. 100

Availability of Technology to Reduce GaG Emissions Energy Efficiency Improvements Energy efficiency as considered here involves the use of efficient equipment and improved operating procedures and production processes for reducing energy intensity, which is defined as energy use per unit of production. Energy efficiency improvements due to weight reductions per unit of product and material substitution in manufactured products are also important but are outside the scope of this study. The baseline of industrial energy efficiency improvement can be placed in perspective by considering the period 1958-1971, when energy prices were low and even falling. In that period fossil fuel intensities declined about 1.2 percent per year as a result of ongoing technical changes. Electricity intensities increased about 1.8 percent per year, reflecting new applications of electricity. In the period 1971-1985, fossil fuel intensities fell more rapidly, primarily in response to increases in fuel prices and secondarily in reaction to shortages of fuels and to government policy initiatives. Electricity intensities in the same period declined gradually, with gains from efficiency improvements outweighing demands for electricity in new applications. Ongoing efficiency improvements will continue owing to the dynamics of industrial competition. The key question is: How can this baseline gain be accelerated? Near Term. Changes in federal R&D are unlikely to have much effect on industrial energy efficiency in the near term. Nevertheless, a greater emphasis on coordination of generic process development by federal agencies and on the adoption of more efficient technology by industry could be of value. Examples of development areas are as follows: ~ In the aluminum industry, use of electricity for smelting can be reduced from 7.0 kwh/lb to 6.0 kwh/lb. · In manufacturing operations such as fabrication and assembly, improved use of electricity in lighting can save about 4 percent of electricity. · Motor drives account for 67 percent of the electricity used by industry. 48 Adjustable-speed drives can save about 2 to 3 percent of total primary energy use attributed to the industrial sector. 101

Long Term. In several energy-intensive industry subsectors, federal support is needed, partly for basic research and partly to help structure long-term R&D programs. For example: · In the steel industry, two major technologies in development are direct steel making and near-net shape casting. Compared to conventional processes, reductions in energy intensity and CO2 emissions of more than 25 percent are projected when the technologies are adopted. · In the aluminum industry, inert anode, cathode, and sidewalls could enable further reductions in the average Intensity of smelting from 6 to 4 kwh/lb. Work on these important technologies is jointly funded by DOE and industry. These efforts should be sustained. ~ In the pulp and paper industry, biodigestion, oxygen bleaching, dry forming of paper, and black-liquor gasification with combustion in gas turbines are technologies that could virtually eliminate the need for fossil fuels and purchased electricity. · In the chemicals industry, biotechnology offers opportunities for efficient processing, and biomass feedstocks offer promise as substitutes for petroleum. Potential Impacts. A substantial increase in energy efficiency will be achieved over the next 30 years through the adoption of currently available technology and the incorporation of results of the R&D efforts cited above (Table 4-14~. Fuel Switching Fuel switching can lead to reduction of GHG emissions from selected industrial processes, but implementation depends on relative price (e.g., of electricity and natural gas). Switching fuels can be between different fuel types or between fuels and electricity. The first option is to switch from high-carbon fuels to fuels with lower carbon content (e.g., coal to natural gas). Switching to electrical energy is advantageous if the power is derived from sources such as hydra, solar, biomass, or nuclear, which are themselves not net producers of CO2. Generally, switching does not require new technology. The primary industrial use of fuels is for heating, and fuel switching is, in principle, a relatively straightforward operation. The problem is how to achieve it without imposing a major economic penalty. The prime focus for R&D ought to be on steps to lower the cost of natural gas and electricity. There is also need for continuing R&D on efficient electrotechnologies. 102

Table 4-14 Estimates of Energy Efficiency Potential by Industry, 1990-2020 Industry Steel Aluminum Chemicals Pulp and paper Glass Fabrication and assembly Petroleum Average Energy Intensity Reduction, %/year 1.0 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.0 ~ .5 0.5 Comments Achievement of direct steel making in inte- grated mills and near-net shape casting with resulting 30 percent reduction in total energy requirement per ton of steel mill products . Reduction from 7.0 to 4.5 kwh/lb of electricity requirements for smelting, assuming successful development of inert electrodes. Source:D. Steinmeyer (member of the Industry Panel), Monsanto Co., personal communication, 1989. A 49 percent reduction in total energy use per unit of production. (Source: DOE, Office of Industrial Programs, The U.S. Pulp and Paper Industry: An Energy Perspective April 1988) A 25 percent reduction in total energy use per unit of production. (Source: DOE, Office of Industrial Programs, The U.S. Glass Industry: An Energy Perspective, April 1988) A 35 percent reduction in total energy use per unit of production. (Source: M. Ross [member of the Industry Panel], University of Michigan, personal communication, 1989~. Source: G. Lauer (member of the Industry Panel), Atlantic Richfield Co. , personal communication, 1989. Note: Estimates are based on the judgments of the Industry Panel members who participated in this study. 103

Near Term. The committee's overall strategy calls for the use of natural gas as an interim, low-CO2-emitting fuel option in a variety of electric generation and end-use applications. Worldwide and U.S. domestic natural gas resources appear adequate to support its use in this role. However, the ability to supply and deliver the necessary fuel to end users within the appropriate time frame and price is a continuing concern. To address this concern, two general areas of R&D are appropriate. first, R&D is needed to permit economic recovery of known domestic reserves. R&D should include · advanced instrumentation to increase recovery of bypassed gas in existing producing or shut-in fields; · evaluation of reserves and probable cost for recovery of deep gas (>15,000 ft); · new methods to increase recovery of gas from tight formations; · advanced technologies for small-scale gas separation to permit use of smaller fields of subquality (high N2, H2S, or CO2 content) natural gas; and · capture of Erogenic methane from landfills and from municipal wastes. These R&D topics are the subject of considerable effort by the oil and gas industry, including the Gas Research Institute. Second, basic, longer-range research in geosciences should be pursued to examine other potentially economical gas resources to further extend the potential for natural gas as a transition fuel. Relevant studies should include resource evaluation of deposits of methane clathrates (hydrated methane) and recovery potential for methane dissolved in geopressured brines. This research should be directed at understanding the geology and size of the potential resource and the technology needed for future economic recovery. Long Term. Hydrogen derived from electricity has the potential to be used in both the industrial and transportation sectors. In the steel industry, for example, technology can be developed to use hydrogen as the principal reductant i n place of carbon. Future applications of the technology will, however, depend on the availability of very low cost electricity. The potential R&D focus should be to develop hydrogen as an alternate fuel to hydrocarbons with emphasis on such factors as safety, storage, and transport. 104

In the chemical, petroleum refining, and glass industries, electricity can, in principle, replace fuel for process heat. Such a replacement would, however, not be economical unless the price of electricity relative to that of fossil fuels were half or one- third the current ratio. Potential Impacts. If it is assumed that all fossil fuels burned by manufacturers could be replaced by electricity and that all electricity is generated using nonfossil primary energy resources, about 40 percent of total current U.S. CO2 emissions would be eliminated. (As noted earlier, this requires a major change in the energy resources for generating electricity and reductions in its cost to industry relative to competing fuels.) Recycling of Materials Increased recycling offers a near-tez~ opportunity for reduction of energy and CO2 emissions in industry. The important subsectors are pr' mary metals, pulp and paper, organic chemicals, petroleum refining, and glass. Maj or issues associated with the potential for achieving recycling are · creation of markets for postconsumer-recycled material in the manufacture of h~gh-quality products; · mechanisms for reliable and clean collection of selected postconsumer and industrial waste materials; and ~ regulatory changes to allow currently defined "waste" streams to be used as feedstocks, both within a single industry and between industries. Proper technology could significantly enhance effective end- user (consumer) separation of recyclable resources. In principle, the maj ority of domestic waste can be recycled into valuable feedstocks. Aluminum beverage cans, made from about 50 percent recycled aluminum, are an outstanding example of a technologically very demanding product for which a system for the supply and use of recycled material has been developed. With respect to recycling within industry, changes are needed in regulations such as the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, which strongly discourages the utilization of waste streams across corporate boundaries. Near Term. The following actions can be taken in the near term to promote recycling: 105

· Design products so that their recycling can be achieved more efficiently. · Develop separations technology to provide pure materials that can be used to produce high-quality consumer and industrial products. · Develop new or improved processes to economically utilize a larger fraction of industrial waste materials. · Establish standards for marking or otherwise labeling containers and container material to facilitate efficient separation. The standards should be such that physical classification and separation equipment can be built to handle the enormous amount of material currently being deposited in landfills. In the area of consumer waste materials (such as cans, bottles, plastics, and paper), the technology to separate wastes is available but is not widely implemented. In the area of industrial waste, such as bauxite residue (red mud) and residue from copper production, separation technology needs to be developed. A specific example of needed technological development is separation of plastics, where there are IS major varieties with which to contend. In this instance the technological development could be aimed at the incorporation of "label" molecules into all plastics; this label could be read at a separation facility and permit easy separation. Potential Impacts. · The recycling rate of aluminum is currently 55 percent. Increasing this rate to 75 percent would save approximately 0.3 quads/year of energy and reduce the attendant CO2 emissions. · With maximum effort, 50 percent recycling of plastics might be achieved by the year 2000. The corresponding reduction in energy used by the chemical industry would be about 15 percent. ~ An increase in the quantity of recycled glass containers reduces CO2 emissions by S percent for each 10 percent of recycled glass. This is achieved through reductions in both energy require- ments and in the quantity of carbonate raw materials contained in the feedstock. ~ The iron and steel industry 50 percent of its output (nearly 40 =~ capacity is based entirely on the sole use of for increased recycling are the recovery of scrap steel "cans" from the after-use market) ~ of scrap from automobile hulks and demolitions. 106 has always recycled nearly percent of domestic active scrap). Two areas coated scrap (e.g., and the mixed Grades

· Almost 20 million short tons of waste paper and paperboard were reused in 1987, representing 26 percent of paper and paperboard production. Some 4.5 million tons of waste paper was exported. Almost no coated or glossy papers are recycled now because the present coatings are incompatible with reuse. Biomass Biomass offers an opportunity for reducing CO2 emissions because it has the potential to supply process energy, feedstock for chemicals, and transportation fuels on a CO2-neutral basis. Near-q~erm. . Long Tes=. . Continue and enhance studies on improved conversion of biomass, especially wood derived cellulose and hemicellulose, to ethanol and other products; improved anaerobic digestion of farm and municipal wastes to produce methane; and selection of species that provide high yields of dry biomass and have low energy requirements during processing. Continue and expand understanding of the mechanisms of photosynthesis; genetic factors that influence plant growth and those that enhance high yields of desirable plant properties; symbiotic process between certain bacteria and plants that permits the fixation of nitrogen (legumes); genetic factors that enhance plant tolerance to the environmental stresses of drought, excessive heat/cold, and disease; and plant biodiversity and habitat impl ications of biomass . 107

· Develop plants incorporating the knowledge gained from the steps outlined above. Potential Impacts. · In principle, a CO2-neutral economy based on biomass is possible. It is a very long range goal, and research is needed to determine if it is achievable. · Estimates for the potential energy contra button from biomass extend to 26 quads of dry biomass/year.49 The 26 quads/year reflects optimistic assumptions of land availability and is based on yields achieved on carefully nurtured, relatively small plots. ~ Although 26 quads/year is much higher than current biomass contributions (approximately 3 quads/year), it reflects only modest contributions from recombinant DNA (biotechnology). If this developing science follows the cycle of invention/ innovation/contribution of past scientific breakthroughs, major contributions could be anticipated starting in the f irst quarter of the twenty-first century. At a minimum, biotechnology could reduce the need for chemical fertilizer nitrogen supply. Almost 2 percent of the industrial CO2 output comes from production of nitrogen fertilizer. At a maximum, the chemical industry would switch much of its feedstock to biomass, the paper and forest products industries would become smaller uses of agricultural land and greater exporters of by- product energy, and the petroleum industry would switch to a biomass base for methane and liquid fuels production. for x surplus cropland: (103 x 106 acres) x (152 x 106 Btu/acre/year) = 15.7 x 1045 Btu/year. From marginal land, not currently cropped: (89 x tD6 acres) x (116 x 106 Btu/acre/year) = 10.3 x 10~5 Btu/year. 108

R&D Needs and Priorities A multiple path approach should be followed to achieve a reduction of GHG emissions by industry. Energy efficiency improvements and recycling could offer major benefits in the short term and will facilitate the switch to other fuels and biomass in the future. Substantial R&D is needed to verify the biomass option, and electrical generating capacity using non-fossil fuels cannot be readily and cost-effectively expanded-hence, electrification and biomass are long-term options. Energy Efficiency Improvements · Continued energy-efficiency improvements offer a maj or opportunity for reduct' on in CO: emissions. In only a few production processes do current efficiencies approach thermodynamic limits. · Changes in federal R&D would have little effect on industrial energy efficiency gains in the near term. · In the long run, federal support of basic and generic research would be of value to the energy-intensive industry subsectors. Moderate gains in efficiency will continue to be made and such improvements will occur without new policies. A significant-but not major-acceleration of the improvement rate can be achieved through new policies targeted at reducing the costs of energy- conserv~ng equipment. Federally sponsored R&D must have industry guidance and feedback as well as clear objectives. The Metals Initiative exemplifies a promising approach, wherein DOE's objectives include gains in both energy efficiency and U.S. industrial competitiveness. In addition, government assistance in R&D can be provided through user-oriented research centers ~ such as those funded by the Nat' anal Science Foundation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the U.S. Department of Defense) for particular generic manufacturing-process issues, like adhesives and joining, forming of ceramics, standardized characterization of plastics, sensors and process controls, and combustion. Fuel Switching With regard to fuel switching, government policy actions must be guided by the following considerations relative to current practice: 109

· Costs must be lowered and capacities increased for electricity generation using low- or non-GHG-emitting resources, large reserves of methane, and low-cost biomass-der~ved fuels. · Availability of very low cost electricity would be essential for developing hydrogen as an energy resource. A variety of actions could be taken to expand methane supplies for industrial use. For example, gas producers such as those operating on municipal landfills could be permitted to use the existing pipeline infrastructure. In addition, international agreements could be negotiated for the recovery and use of gas that Is flared and vented. Recycling of Materials Increased recycling offers a major opportunity for increasing energy efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions. The important subsectors are primary metals, pulp and paper, organic chemicals, petroleum refining, and glass. To stimulate recycling the following issues must be addressed: · Front-end separation efforts may have to be encouraged through incentives or penalties. · Markets must be created for postconsumer-recycled material in the manufacture of high-quality products. · Mechanisms are needed for reliable and clean collection of selected postconsumer and industrial waste materials. · Regulations counterproductive to waste management Initiatives should be changed. For example, regulations must be changed to allow the use of currently defined "waste" streams as feedstocks, both within a single company and between companies. · Industries ought to be established that use the waste of other industries to produce useful products cost-ef fectively . The structure and substance of federal, state, and local regulations affecting waste management are, in some instances, counterproductive. Implementation and interpretation of the current law have strongly discouraged the recycling of materials that have historically been designated waste and have not been sold in commerce. The principal problem is a matter of liability for the ultimate disposal of the hazardous waste. The statutory language should be amended in such a manner that it encourages the utilization of waste streams and materials across all industries. Although technologies-ranging from magnetic and electrostatic sorting to plasma decomposition and separation of the elements by 110

mass spectrometry—could be developed for separation of mixtures, the most cost-effective and simplest method for nonindustrial wastes is front-end sorting at the household. Here the separated plastics, metals, paper, and glass can be shipped to the proper industry for purification and recycled into products having high value added. Since front-end separation requires extra effort on the part of the consumer or scrap-metal dealer, this effort may have to be encouraged through incentives or penalties imposed through legislation. In the area of industrial waste, there is high potential for the establishment of industries that use the waste of other industries to produce useful products, without the need for mining and comminut~on, both of which use substantial energy. An example is metals recovery from electric-furnace dust. Federal leadership and financial support will be required if U.S. industry, academia, and the national laboratories are to launch a broad R&D effort to achieve the maximum amount of industrial recycling. Biomass To ascertain the full potential of the biomass option, a greatly increased, coordinated, and focused federal program is needed. The areas for federal focus in R&D are to · expand understanding of basic plant science, · support short-term actions that focus on conventional farms, and · perform systems analysis to define and prioritize infrastructure requirements. At the same time, industry should pursue R&D to a develop more efficient plant species and · develop plant species that can adapt to specific end uses (i.e., pest, nutrient, and climatic environments). Areas where broad, federally chartered, cost-shared, industrially guided R&D programs should be considered include ~ development of biomass plantation concept, and · development of conversion processes. In addition, the scientific base to regulate introduction of genetically altered species needs to be strengthened. There are concerns about wide-scale use of biotechnology that need to be addressed by means of much improved scientific knowledge-for example, the potential loss of genetic diversity. 111

Incentives are needed to manage farms for long-term efficiency, through erosion control and more efficient irrigation, and to operate farms as integrated systems (e.g., manure utilization). Incentives ought to be maintained to nurture the emerging use of biomass for energy, feedstock, and liquid fuels (e.g. , ethanol in gasoline). Mechanisms must be established to broadly recognize, assess, and manage societal and environmental impacts pertaining to the biomass industry, including use of water resources, competition between food and fuel/feedstock for land use, diversity of plant species for protection against pest attack, and preservation of biodiversity and habitat. Recognizing the need for protection of the environment is a major issue for large-scale development of biomass as an energy source. Current Energy R&D Programs The federal government has a broad spectrum of R&D programs supporting energy conservation, the development of renewable energy sources, and low-cost electricity production. These three areas are central to industry' s opportunity to reduce GHG emissions. Assessing the effectiveness of these federal R&D programs should take into account that the results of basic research are distant in time; frequently, the spark that led to invention, innovation, and application is forgotten at the time of application. Federal funding also is relatively slight when seen as a percentage of the total worldwide historical research base that underlies many industries. Historically, DOE has concentrated its research and development funding on supply technologies, not on end-use technologies. Energy R&D within DOE that is relevant to the requirements of industry is mainly within the Conservation and Renewable Energy program areas. The relative program priorities within DOE, however, as measured by the funding assigned to the Conservation and Renewable Energy program areas in FY 1989 were among the lowest (see Table 3-1~. Aside from its small scale, the federal effort on conservation and renewables may have a problem in that it is distributed too broadly and lacks a focused thrust. Two areas in which the committee recommends focus are recycling (for contribution in the period 1990-2010) and biomass (for contribution in the period 2000-2030~. DOE ' s Office of Industrial Programs (OIP), which in FY 1990 is funded at $51 million, addresses many key industrial R&D needs to achieve more efficient energy use. In addition to the federal funds spent by DIP, industry will spend about $8 million in FY 1990 in support of these cost-sharing projects. 112

The planned activities of OIP in FY 1990 include a budget of $27 million for R&D on improved energy productivity. About half of this funding is for advanced steel-processing research projects jointly funded by industry. Funding for other energy productivity research projects is generally small and directed at many targets. Further review of these projects should be done in collaboration with industry to determine if OIP funds should be focused differently. Recycling Is being addressed in modestly funded projects on separation systems and industrial waste utilization. A longer and more comprehensive program in these two areas is required to develop technologies to make recycling a viable option. The waste, heat recovery, combustion improvement, and industrial cogeneration projects are also modestly funded (a total of about $16 million in FY 1990) and are directed at generic technologies in support of industry. More detailed review by industry is desirable to determine if the scope and funding of these projects are appropriate. The Biofuels and Municipal Waste Technology Division of DOE is assigned responsibility to develop fuel pathways for producing large quantities of domestic biomass and to convert it to quality fuels at minimum cost. Development of new high-yield energy crops and biotechnology are a part of this program area. The projects within this program have well-defined objectives and appear to be making substantial progress toward improving a number of biomass technologies. Total funding for the Biofuels Division in EY 3990 was about $16 million. This level of funding is inadequate to meet the identified technological needs for biomass production and conversion. Within the basic research activities of DOE, the chemistry, materials, and biosciences areas provide a phenomenological basis upon which industry could develop or improve process technologies and products. Approximately $400 million will be spent by DOE in these areas in FY 1990. A closer tie between basic research at DOE and RD&D in the applied program offices would be valuable. Other federal agencies also sponsor process technology R&D for industry applications. Such activities include manufacturing process technology development for the metals fabrication and electronics industries by the U.S. Department of Defense (FY 1990 funding of $170 million); manufacturing R&D, especially process control and automation, by the U.S. Department of Commerce through the National Institute for Standards and Technology; the development of improved materials technologies by the Bureau of Mines; biomass and other agricultural energy improvement techniques by the U.S. Department of Agriculture; and, at the very important basic research level, the science and engineering research programs 113

of the National Science Foundation. Certain R&D activities of the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Transportation are also pertinent to industry. More coordination among these activities would be desirable to ensure that technology transfer occurs across federal agencies and to industry. Although each of the federal R&D programs can directly and indirectly contribute to the base of knowledge needed by industry to address the GHG problem, none were formulated with this as a prime target. As noted earlier, the relative priorities will shift if the GHG issue becomes a major consideration in federal R&D, with biomass being one obvious beneficiary. ADDEND: 8IOMAl;8 FOR ENERGY AND FEED8TOCR8 All products derived from photosynthetic activity - agriculture, silviculture, and aquaculture-are encompassed by the term biomass. This resource offers a major nonelectrical route for achieving large reductions in CO2 emissions by supplying process energy, feedstock for chemicals, and transportation fuels in a CO2-neutral manner. On a worldwide basis, biomass is already a significant source of energy. Although less than ~ percent of the annual biomass growth is used for energy, it provides 15 percent of total primary energy consumption. In individual countries the biomass contribution is much higher: 2S percent in Brazil, 33 percent In China, and 50 percent in India. At present, biomass supplies less than 5 percent of the energy used in the United States. However, the United States is relatively rich in biomass generated, with approximately 50 quads of energy fixed as biomass each year and about half of that used as harvested product.5, In terms of harvested product, that is about 2.4 times5,as much as that in Brazil and 5 times as much as that in India. Most of the U.S. harvest goes to food and pasture, with 7 percent going to forest products.54 The energy content in the current harvest is equal to about a third of current energy use. If it were to be shifted into liquid fuels via the relatively inefficient corn-to-ethanol cycle, the fraction would be much smaller. Biomass production for energy and feedstocks faces a number of constraints, including competition with food and fiber production, land and water shortages, and environmental degradation.52 The potential damages from biomass development can involve substantial increases in soil erosion and sedimentation of rivers and lakes and subsequent damage to land and water resources, adverse changes in or loss of important ecosystems, degradation of esthetic and recreational values, and local air and water pollution problems.53 Although all of these adverse effects can be minimized 114

through proper management, an assessment must be made on a region- by-region basis to determine the full potential of the biomass resource and the benefits and risks of its expanded use for fuels and chemical feedstock. The amount of land needed in the United States for biomass production is directly dependent on the amount of energy and feedstock demands. Some relevant statistics" are as follows: Areas United States-total Commercial forest Cropland Pasture Million Acres 2,265 715 475 740 A total of 192 million acres was utilized in the estimate for the production of 2 6 quads of energy from biomass . 49 Under the current DOE biofuels program, a potential recove of biomass-derived energy of 17.0 quads/year has been projected. Such a production level in the United States assumes the use of the following raw resources: Biomass Resources Conventional wood and forest waste Energy crops (wood and herbaceous) Agriculture Oil-bearing plants (oilseed and algae) Municipal waste Recoverable Currently Energy Recovered (quads/year) (=uads/year) 50 7.5 2.7 4.0 1.0 2.0 2.5 0.1 0.1 The energy yield can be increased with current technology. It has been demonstrated 49'55 57 that biomass yields from high-intensity plantations can achieve 10 to 25 dry tons of biomass per acre per year using specially developed varieties of sorghum, napier grass, and wood grass. This represents up to an order of magnitude increase above current average agricultural yields. A by-product of plantation cropping of fast-growing forests is the carbon fixation both in the standing forests and in their root systems. Perhaps more important is the expectation of genetic improvements in the next 10 to 40 years. Currently, biomass captures only 0.1 percent of the average incident solar energy, which suggests the enormous potential for improvement. The reason to expect realization of improvement is the fast development of biotechnology- the understanding of the genetic code and the ability to select and insert desired genes. "Today over two dozen species of crop plants can be routinely transformed Genetically engineered soybean, cotton, rice, corn, and alfalfa crops are expected to enter the marketplace between 1995-2000.5 115

source of fuel or In the United States, approximately ~ percent or automobile fuel is ethanol derived from corn. In Brazil a somewhat larger program derives ethanol from sugar cane. In both cases a large subsidy is required to permit ethanol to compete against conventional gasoline. Also in both cases, slightly over half the cost of production is in the corn or Both technologies appear relatively mature. There is 'irate promise or a major rise in efficiency or a reduction in production costs. Biomass can be burned directly as a converted into gas or liquid fuel =-58 - 51 The sugar cane cycle represents a source of automotive fuel that is nearly CO2 neutral. The corn cycle is not CO2 neutral, because significant amounts of fossil fuel are used in producing the corn and distilling the ethanol. The corn cycle in the United States appears to be motivated primarily as an indirect subsidy of agriculture, with a secondary theme of reducing the balance of payments and dependence on imported crude oil. Few people suggest the corn-to-ethanol route as a logical ~ ~ ~ Typical estimates of long-term solution to transportation fuels. the maximum contribution from corn-ethanol are two to three tomes its current level.59 Still, the route is important as a pioneering effort, to develop the infrastructure for more extensive production and use of biomass fuels-and for that reason the subsidy may be worthwhile. Most of the current work at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Gas Research Institute, and Solar Energy Research Institute has focused on other sources, such as glucose from cellulose and xylose from hemicellulose. Considerable progress has been made in lowering costs for this route, increasing raw material yields, and improving conversion processes. For example, projected costs for obtaining ethanol from cellulose and hemicellulose have been halved in the last lo years-to about $1.35 per gallon today." 116

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11. Year 1991 Congressional Budget Request, 0398 U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, 1990. Report DOE/MA- O.C. , January 12. D. J. McGroff, presentation to the National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, October 5-7, 1989. 13. United States Energy Policy, 1980-1988, Report DOE/S-0068, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., October 1988. 14 J. D. Griffith, presentations to the National Research Council Committee on Future Nuclear Power Development, October 18 and November 13, 1989. 15. National Research Council, Pacing the U.S. Magnetic Fusion Program, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., June 1989. 16. S. C. Davis, D. B. Shonka, et al., Transportation Energy Data Rm~k. FH ; t ; On 1n Resort ORNL-6S65 . Oak Ridae National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., September 1989. 17. D. L. Bleviss, The New Oil Crisis and Fuel Economy Technologies—Preparing the Light Transportation Industry for the l990s, Quorum Books, New York, 1988 . 18 . M. Ross, "Energy and Transportation in the United States" Annual Review of Energy, 14: 131-171, J. M. Hollander, R. H. Socolow, and D. Sternl~ght, D. teds.), 1989. 19. HolLberg, P. D., et al., 1988 GRI Baseline Projection and U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, Strategic Analysis and Energy Forecasting Division, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill ., 1988 . 20. Nonresidential Rnildinas Enerov Consumption Survey: Characteristics of Commercial Buildings 1986, DOE/EIA-0246 (86), U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C., 1988. 21. J. Bluestein and H. DeLima, Regional Characteristics and Heating/Coolina Requirements for Single-Family Detached Houses, GRI-85/0164, Applied Management Sciences, Inc., for Gas Research Institute, August 1985. 22. W. Q. Zwack, et al., Review and Comparison of GRI Single- Fam~ly Detached House Heating and Cooling Loads. GRI- 86/0163, Applied Management Sciences, Inc., for Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill., December 1986. 118

23. E. Hirst, Cooperation and Community _ Conservation, Comprehensive Report, Hood River Conservation Proj eat, Contract DE-AC-79-8 3BP11287, U. S . Department of Energy, Washington, D. C., 1987 . 24. W. D. Houle, "Control System Usability, " Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, In Proceedings of the 12th World Eneroy Engineering Congress, 25. R. Anderson and T. Hartman, "Controls of the Future," Heating/Piping/A' r Conditioning, November 1988, p.59-61. 26. D. P. F~oriono, "An Application of State-of-the-Art HVAC and Building Systems," Energy Ena. 85~6~:6-31, 1988. 27. V. E. Gilmore, "Superwindows," Popular Sci., March 1986. 28. T. Miyairi, "Introduction to Small Gas Engine-Driven Heat Pumps in Japan-History and Marketing," ASHRAE Trans. Vol. 95, Part 1, 1989. 2 9 . C . E . French, F. E. Jacob, T. A. Klausing, and T. R. Roose, ''Reciprocating Natural Gas-Engine Vapor-Compression Heat Pump, " in Proceedings of the 1989 International Gas Research Conference ~ Vol . IT : Residential & Commercial Utilization, Tokyo, Japan, November 6-9, 1989 . 3 0 . American Publ ic Power Association, "Air-Source Heat Pumps Evolve ~ " Air Conditioning, Heating r and Refrigeration News, October 1989, p.12. 31. D. S. Teji, "HVAC Egu~pment Replacement Study-Energy Savings Three Ways," 12th World Energy Engineering Congress (WEEC) Product Showcase, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. 32. Sylvania Lamps, An Energy-Saving Guide for All Your Lighting Needs, GTE Products Corporation, Sylvania Lighting Center, 1989/90. 33. R. R. Verderber, "Advanced Lighting Technologies Products," Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, in Proceedings of the 12th World Energy_Engineering Congress, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. 34. D. Goldstein, Deriving Power Budgets for Energy-Efficient Lighting in Non-residential Buildings, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, Washington, D.C., 1988. 119

35. Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, presentation to the Buildings Sector Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 14-15, 1989. 36. K. G. Davidson, "Advances in HVAC Alternatives'. Heatina/Pip~na/Air Conditioning, September 1987, p. 59- 68. 37 . J. R. Watt and A. A. L' ncoln, "Refrigeration Systems Enhancement Thru Evaporative Cooling, " Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, in Proceedings of the 12th World Energy Engineering Congress, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. 38. 1990-1994 Research and Development Plan and 1990 Research and Development Program, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill., 1989. 39. Results of Appraisal of GRI 1990-1994 R&D, Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Ill., 1989. 40. If increased natural gas use is accompanied by significant (5 percent) leakage, the benefits of substituting natural gas for other fuels will be lost, since methane, the primary constituent of natural gas, is also a greenhouse gas. However, recent studies show leakage on the order of percent or less (W. M. Burnett, Gas Research Institute, personal communication, 1990~. 41. Household Energy Consumption and Expenditures. Part 1: National Data, DOE/EIA-0321/1, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Of f ice of Energy Markets and End Use, Washington, D. C., 1987 . 42 . P. J. Camej o and D. C. Hittle, "An Expert System for the Design of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Condition' ng Systems" , ASHRAE Trans ., Vol . 95 , Part 1 , 1989 . 43. H. Ruderman, M. D. Levine, and J . McMahon , "The Behavior of the Market for Energy Efficiency in Residential Appliances Including heating and Cooling Equipment, 'I Energy Jour., 8 (1): 101-123, ~ 987. 44. National user facilities are physical locations at government laboratory es where potential users of new technologies, ~ nclud i ng industry manuf acturers, prof es s tonal associations, and other interested groups, can take advantage of a facility's staff and services on an as- available basis. The facilities conduct primarily nonproprietary testing and disseminate results widely. 120

They serve as R&D facilities where future advancements are pursued in parallel with implementation of existing technologies. Technology areas appropriate for user facilities include windows, roofing, lighting, construction materials, and operation and maintenance practices. User facilities must be established in close cooperation with appropriate trade organizations and must place high priority on availability to user groups. National user facilities exist at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory for windows and Oak Ridge National Laboratory for roofing. The National Institute of Standards and Technology provides a user facility in the areas of thermal performance of walls; plaything and water heating; appliance efficiency; commissioning, operating, and maintenance procedures for energy management and control systems; and durability of construction materials. Seattle City Light operates a user facility for regional users on lighting. 45. R. Sant and S. Carhart, Eight Great Energy Myths: The Least- Cost Energy Strategy-1978-2000. Energy Productivity Report No. 4, Mellon Institute, Pittsburgh, Pa., 1981. 46. R. Diamond, and P. du Pont, "Building Managers: The Actors Behind the Scene," Home Energy, March/April 1988. 47. Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey: Consumption of Energy in 1985, Report DOE/EIA-0512~85), U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C., November, 1988. 48. L. Lamarre, "New Push for Energy Efficiency," EPRI J., 15(3):4-17, 1990. 49. J. Ranney, (Oak Ridge National Laboratory), presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 30, 1989. 50. D. L. Klass, "The U.S. Biofuels Industry,' International Renewable Energy Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii, September 18, 1988. 51. D. Pimental et al., "Food Versus Biomass Fuel: Socioeconomic and Environmental Impacts in the United States, Brazil, India and Kenya," Adv. Food Res. 32: 185, 1988. 52. Report on Biomass Energy, Energy Research Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 1981. 53. Energy from Biological Processes, Office of Technology Assessment, U. S. Congress, Washington, D.C., July 1980. 121

54. S. R. Bull (Solar Energy Research Institute), presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 9, 1989. SS. T. D. Hayes, (Gas Research Institute), presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 9, 1989. 56. R. T. Fraley, "Genetic Engineering in Crop Agriculture," background paper for Office of Technology Assessment, U. S. Congress, Washington, D.C., October 10, 1989. 57. D. L. Pulp (Ford Motor Co.), presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 9, 1989. 58. National Materials Advisory Board, National Research Council, Bioprocessing for the Energy-Efficient Production of Chemicals, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. , April 1986. 5 9 . Ethanol and pal icy Tradeof f s, _ _ Washington, D. C., January 1988. Department of Agriculture, 60. R. J. Van Hook, presentation to Industry Panel, National Research Council Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, November 9, 1989. 122

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Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Energy Efficiency: How Far Can We Go? Prepared for the Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy, under Contract DE- AC05-840R21400, Report ORNL/TM-11441, January 1990. Oatman, P. A., D. J. Frey, and D. N. Wortman, Whole Building Energy Diagnostic System. Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, In Proceedings of the lath World Energy Engineering Congress, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. Odgen, J. M., and R. H. Williams, Solar Hydrogen - Moving Beyond Fossil Fuels, World Resources Institute, October 1989. Pacific Northwest Laboratory, The Technology Transfer Process, White paper prepared for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy, April 1990. Patrusky, B., "Dirtying the Infrared Window,' MOSAIC (publication of the National Science Foundation), 19~3/4~:25-37, Fall/Winter, 1988. Peterson, J. L., J. W. Jones, and B. D. Hunn, "The Correlation of Annual Commercial Building Boil Energy with Envelope, Internal Load, and Climatic Parameters," ASHRAE Trans, Vol. 95, Part 1, 1989. Ramanathan, V., et al., t'Trace Gas Trends and Their Potential Role in Climate Change," J. Geophys. Res., 90:5547-55, 1985. Rasmussen, K. "Sources, Sinks, and Seasonal Cycles of Atmospheric Methane", Geophys. Res, 88: 5131, 1983. Ryan, W., J. Marsala, A. Lowenste' n, and W. Griffiths, "Liquid Desiccant Residential Deht,midifier," in Proceedings of the 1989 International Gas Research Conference, Vol. II Residential & Commercial Utilization, Atlanta, Gal, 1989. Savitz, M., "The Federal Role in Conservation Research and Development," J. Byrne and D. Rich feds.), The Politics of Energy Research and Development: Eneray Policy Studies, Vol. 3, New Brunswick, N. J., Transaction Books, pp. 89-118. Schmidt, E., "Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Methane," Pure App. Geophys. 116:452, 1978. Solar Energy Research Institute, The Potential of Renewable Energy, An Interlaboratory White Paper, Prepared for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-83CH10093, Report SERI/TD- 260-3674 DE90000322, March 1990. 125

Sperling, D., New Approaches __~ , ~ , of California Press, Berkeley, Calif., 1988. Transportation Dual a: Uni verb: i to .C:n~rl in" n Ins M ~ n=T.l' - ha; ~-~-~Y' ~., ~~ ~~. a. ~c~/ "Transportation Energy Futures J l. Annual Review of Energy, 14:375-424, 1989. ~ ~ ~ _ _ ~ ~ _ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ =~=ln/ ^. =. ~ A. =`eln, m. Buckley, and M. Preen/ tianODooK or Energy Use for Building Construction Contract AC02- 79CS20220, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 1981. Turiel, I., and M. D. Levine, "Energy Efficient Refrigeration and Reduction of CFC Use," Annual Review of Energy, 14:173-204, 1989. Tuft, P., and R. Norton, Energy Master Planning: Innovative Design and Energy Analysis Service (Ideas) for New Commercial Construction, Strategies for Reducing Natural Gas, Electric and Oil Costs, in Proceedings of the 12th World Energy Engineering Congress, 1989. United Kingdom Denartment of Enerov. Background Pacers Gel Event to the 1986 Appraisal of U. K. Energy Research. Development and Demonstration, ETSU-R-4 3, Reports compiled by Chief Scientists Group, Energy Technology Support Unit, Harwell Laboratory, 1987 . United Kingdom Department of Energy, Energy Technologies for the United Kingdom: 1986 Appraisal of Research. Development and Demonstration, Energy Paper 54, February 1987. University of California, _ Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Effects of Low-Emissivity Glazings on Energy Use Patterns in Nonresidential Daylighted Buildings, Presented at 1987 ASHRAE Winter Meeting, Contract DE-AC03-76SF00098, Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 1986, p. 132. rin; franc; tin of rim 1; f^ - no; a __ __ _~_____.._~, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory et al., Energy Technology for Developing Countries: Issues for the U.S. National Energy Strategy, Draft Report, September 15, 1989. U.S. Department of Commerce, Evaluating R&D and New Product Development Ventures: An Overview of Assessment Methods, PB86-110806, National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va., 1986. U. S . Department of Energy, Office of Renewable Energy Technologies, five Year Research Plan, 1988-1992, Biofuels and Municipal Waste Technology Program, Washington, D.C., July 1988. 126

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